Leaders of the Pack After Week 18

by Dennis Michelsen 

@DMICmedia

 https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com

Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. It's important to factor in more than just this year when determining who the leader is at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, but each week, the current season is weighted more heavily. Let's see who the pack leaders are after week 18. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player's statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a standard metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.  

MVP25 Index

The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season. 

Upside Index 

While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index looks at a player's best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula for handling outlier data that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighted more to keep the data up to date for this season's performances. 

Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games

A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player for Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than the median for that position, judging each QB against the others with the same point value is what matters most. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football. 

Top 15 at QB

1. Josh Allen- Number one for the season, but not the best value at ADP by a wide margin 

2. Jalen Hurts (+1) might be the highest-rated QB in Fantasy that is poised for a real championship

3. Joe Burrow (+1) Injury hurt his value, but he finished strong

4. Matthew Stafford (+3) might have been the best value in Fantasy Football 

5. Brock Purdy (-3). Occasional down games against good defenses made him less valuable 

6. Drake Maye- Can he repeat against a better schedule next season? 

7. Jared Goff (+2) could be a nice value QB2 draft pick again next season

8. Lamar Jackson- Will he be traded in the offseason? 

9. Jaxson Dart (+1). Concussion risk is his only downside in the dynasty format

10. Trevor Lawrence (+2). The Second half of the season finally lived up to hopes for his performance

11. Dak Prescott (-6) Cowboys unlikely to fix defense in one season, making Dak a great value again

12. Baker Mayfield (-1) saw a decline this season. Can he stop the fall? 

13. Caleb Williams (+2) needs to play all four quarters like the 4th Q

14. Justin Herbert (NEW) played through injuries to himself and the O-Line all season

15. Bo Nix (-1) was not the reason the Broncos were the number one seed in the AFC

Top 30 at RB

1. Christian McCaffrey- Will the Fantasy world be fearful of the decline that didn't come? 

2. De'Von Achane (+1) could be RB1 on a better offense

3. Bijan Robinson (-1) Someone else will split RB touches next season

4. Jahmyr Gibbs- Got more volume and responded well this year, as expected

5. Jonathon Taylor- Was RB2 before losing his QB

6. Kyren Williams- Could see pressure from younger RBs next season

7. Chase Brown (+1) Was RB2 with Burrow at QB

8. Derrick Henry (-1) How will the ageless wonder respond in the new offense? 

9. James Cook- Lack of more involvement in the passing game caps his weekly upside

10. Josh Jacobs (+1) Injury down the stretch dropped his value

11. Saquon Barkley (+1) was not even close to the same player this season

12. Travis Etienne (+1) might have been the best value RB in Fantasy this season

13. RJ Harvey (-3) The future is bright for this impressive playmaker on a solid offense

14. Omarion Hampton- Looking forward to seeing him with a healthy offensive line

15. Breece Hall (+2). Anywhere but the Jets would be an improvement 

16. Bucky Irving- Great start to the season hampered by injury

17. D'Andre Swift (-2) could lose volume to Monangai in the future

18. TreyVeon Henderson (+1) Part of a solid 1-2 punch on a solid offense

19. Ashton Jeanty (-1) Offense can't be worse next season

20. Javonte Williams- Could lose volume next season 

21. Rhamondre Stevenson (+4) could be a nice volume pick again next season 

22. Ken Walker- Volume split caps his weekly upside 

23. Rico Dowdle (-2) probably loses his starting gig next season

24. Kenneth Gainwell (+3) Sell high in dynasty because value could drop off the cliff

25. Jaylen Warren (-2) finished the season strong, but it's a mystery in the future

26. David Montgomery (-2) will be looking for a new home next season

27. Aaron Jones (-1) Another RB with an uncertain future

28. Tyrone Tracy (NEW) could be a nice 1-2 punch with Skattebo going forward

29. Zach Charbonnet- Could take over the lead RB role next year 

30. Tony Pollard (-2) finished the season strong on a bad offense

Top 35 at WR

1. Puka Nacua- Will Stafford be back again next season?   

2. Ja'Marr Chase- When Burrow played, he lived up to top pick value

3. Amon Ra St Brown- Drafted too late again this season 

4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1) might be a good top pick next season

5. Cee Dee Lamb (-1) Solid but not spectacular season when healthy 

6. Nico Collins (+1) Offensive game plan caps his upside

7. Davante Adams (-1) Rams need him healthy for a deep playoff run

8. Chris Olave (+1) Volume King and Shough was better than expected 

9. AJ Brown (-1) ended up being priced correctly this season

10. Drake London (-2) Could be WR1 with the right QB

11. George Pickens- Earned a big contract next season, but where? 

12. Jameson Williams (+2). The Second half of the season will have people overpaying again 

13. Zay Flowers (+4) finished WR7 in total points 

14. Tee Higgins (+2) Most talented WR2 in the NFL right now

15. Mike Evans (-5). Has Father Time caught up with him? 

16. Stefon Diggs (-3) Better WR in real NFL than in Fantasy right now

17. Justin Jefferson (+4) McCarthy finally started finding him open 

18. Courtland Sutton (-3) Better to pick in Best Ball than Redraft

19. DK Metcalf (+1) Big play receiver on a team that made very few big plays this season

20. DJ Moore (-2) Value sinking fast with speedy WRs joining him on the team

21. Terry McLaurin (-2) got big money and then had a lost season

22. Deebo Samuel- Another guy who is better to pick in Best Ball than Redraft every season

23. Wan Dale Robinson (+1) stepped up, and Nabers went down 

24. Jaylen Waddle (+3) failed to step up when Tyreek went down 

25. Jakobi Meyers (+5) Split volume caps his upside

26. Tetairoa McMillan (+3) should be a Top 12 guy next season

27. Michael Wilson (NEW) Injury to MHJ showed the team who the best WR really was on the team

28. Jauan Jennings- Third-best receiving option on his own team

29. DeVonta Smith (-3) Another WR I like better in Best Ball than Redraft 

30. Michael Pittman (-7) started the season strong and will find a new home next year

31. Ladd McConkey (+1) Was rookie year a fluke, or was this just a sophomore slump? 

32. Christian Watson (+1). If he could stay healthy for a full season, he could be impressive 

33. Chris Godwin (-8) will be entering a possible contract year during the 26th season

34. Emeka Egbuka- Was a Top 10 WR before his injury, and the return of veterans

35. Alec Pierce (+4) Where will he end up next season? 

Top 15 at TE

1. Trey McBride- Undisputed TE1 in all formats, and it's not even that close     

2. George Kittle- The old guy can still get it done   

3. Travis Kelce- Hitting the 13K in receiving yards leaves very few goals to keep playing  

4. Harold Fannin-Amazing results with lousy QB play

5. Dallas Goedert- Could fall to TE10 next season 

6. Coleston Loveland- Could be a massive rising star on a great offense

7. Kyle Pitts (+1) played well in his contract year 

8. Darren Waller (+1) Not much tire left on the treads

9. David Njoku (+5) could be playing somewhere else in 26

10. Dalton Kincaid (+3) has too much athletic ability not to play at a higher level

11. Hunter Henry (+4) The Red Zone Target King

12. Mark Andrews (-2). Could that be the last we see of Andrews? 

13. Dalton Schultz (NEW) Strong finish moving him into the TE13 position  

14. Tyler Warren (-3) was Top 5 before injury to Indiana Jones

15. Jake Ferguson (-3) had a down year with the addition of Pickens