Was Fantasy Football Scoring Really Down in 2023?
The actual football world continually evolves with different rules, offensive schemes, and defensive schemes. That means Fantasy Football is constantly changing too. Too many Fantasy Football analysts use year-end points to measure success and failure in fake football.
The main thing year-end point totals tell us in Fantasy Football is who stayed the healthiest that season, and it is not a good first guess of who we want on our fake football teams the following season. Since Fantasy Football is a weekly game, it’s best to chase the three things that matter most in Fantasy Football every week. Did the player achieve a score over the historical median for production? Did he have a high-scoring game? Did he have a low-scoring game? Adding those three types of games together in a unique formula yields the MVP Index for Fantasy Football.
Let’s see if Fantasy Football scoring was down compared to recent historical values using the MVP Index as our guide.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a vast points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a shallow points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index.
While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. The index is calculated for individual seasons and a two-year window, shown through my research to better indicate a player’s future potential for the next season. Since real NFL football constantly changes, picking the right time scale for any data study is essential. Six years is an eternity in the evolution of the football game, but it provides us with enough data to spot trends as they happen. Let’s look at the MVP Index data for 2023 at each position and see how this compares to the last six years in Fantasy Football.
Comparing the QB Position
Over the past six years combined, the average MVP Index for the QB position was 69 compared to just 59 last season. This result compares only full games played, defined as games where the QB played at least 75% of his team’s snaps. In addition to the average at MVP Index, a median was calculated for players with over a 100, 75, 50, and 25 MVP Rating for the season, along with the total number of QBs who played ten or more games that year.
Last year, there were only 3 QBs over the elite level of 100 for an MVP index, a drop of 3 from the previous year, nine from the peak in 2020-21, and about a third of the historic six-year median. This finding explains why the” Elite QB Strategy” was so successful last year. There was also a significant drop in the number of QBs exceeding an MVP Index of 75 or more for the season, but it wasn’t as dramatic as the elite group.
Comparing the RB Position
One of the most significant changes in real NFL football over the past 10-20 years is the recent adoption of more “Running Back by Committee” approaches by NFL coaches. Volume is King in Fantasy Football, and having that volume split among two or sometimes three different RBs during the game has watered down the upside of Fantasy Football production at the position.
Last year’s average MVP Index at RB was 76, down from the six-year average of 83. The number of elite RBs scoring over 100 on the MVP Index has remained steady over the past six seasons. Likewise, the number of RBs scoring over 75 on the MVP Index has remained steady. The number of RBs playing ten or more full games, defined as playing 40% or more of the team’s snaps, has increased significantly over the past few seasons, hitting a high of 39 this year compared to the six-year median of 31.6.
Comparing the WR Position
While we think of the NFL as a passing league, there has been a significant drop in yards per game and attempts from the peak in 2015. There was another mini peak in 2020, which shows up clearly in the MVP Index data at WR. Last season had a historically low MVP Index average of 44 at the WR position compared to a peak of 65 in 2020 and the six-year average of 55. The number of elite WRs over 100 for the season and very good WRs over 75 was relatively steady compared to the six-year median. The number of WRs logging ten or more games increased significantly last year. Unlike year-end point totals, MVP Index data smooths out the data for injuries.
Comparing the TE Position
The same threshold values for historical medians, big point games, and lousy games are used across the RB, WR, and TE landscape, even though the historical levels are much lower for the TE position. This process is being done to accurately compare the positions for Flex Starter decisions. Last season, we saw a nice surge in the over-75 MVP group after hitting a historic low the previous season. Since two players were rookies, we will likely see one of the younger players hit that 100 or above mark this season. This year’s rookie class could also give us two more Fantasy Football-worthy players at the TE position.
Conclusions
We don’t always see perception meet reality in Fantasy Football. Still, when we look at the data from the 2023 position, scoring was down at each position versus the six-year historical numbers. Scoring in the league peaked in 2020, with the 2023 season down 3 points and 28 yards per game. While that doesn’t sound like a huge change, it has dropped our Fantasy Football production at each position.
The number of elite players at QB had a historic low in 2023 when graded using the MVP Index data. The number of elite RBs and WRs has mostly stayed the same despite a vast difference in the number of RBs chosen in the first round of Fantasy Football drafts over the past two seasons. Everything happens in cycles in fantasy football, though, so I look for the number of elite players at quarterback to increase again in the next few seasons.
Another interesting observation from this data set is that since the MVP Index for the average RB is significantly higher than the average WR when choosing a Flex starter between those two positions, the RB is the clear choice on production potential. Scoring was down in 2023, and how that might affect our draft strategy for the 2024 Fantasy Football draft season will require further research.