Weekly Values in Fantasy Football After Week Seven 

In fantasy football, too many players concentrate on total points, which can deceive us of the actual value of players in fake football. One huge week can vault someone into the top 10 at a position, especially early in the season. My goal with my statistical tools is to show the weekly value of a player by comparing their best games against their fellow players. While year-end points can tell us where we have been, my tools attempt to tell us where we might be going shortly and become more heavily weighted for the current season every week. Let’s take a look at this week’s data.  

Defining Terms Used

Weekly Value- Weekly Value is a statistical tool that I created that attempts to combine the “Big Points Game” ability with “Consistency. The goal is to compare each player’s best games against the other players in Fantasy Football using a two-year data window. This two-year data is not meant to be a “Points Per Game” rating but can be considered the upside potential for each player. 

Consistency Rating- Lots of people say that consistency doesn’t matter in Fantasy Football because the point totals are wildly inconsistent from one week to the next. Those people do not understand how to rate consistency in FF. My consistency rating is the percentage of games over 10 PPR points versus the total full games played. A complete game is defined as 30 or more offensive snaps in a game. 

Fantasy MVP Index- Big Games, Average Games, and Horrible Games are the three possible outcomes each week that can affect the win/loss record of our team in any format. Combining “Games 20 or More” with “Games Over 10” and “Games Under 5” plus using a little secret sauce math gives us another number to compare among players. 

Value- The drop-off in points in Fantasy Football is not linear. A simple computation from the leader at each position to the rest of the field at the position can show a percentage drop in value. This data can be quite helpful when making trades to understand how much value you are gaining or dropping at a position in any deal. 

QB Weekly Value

The value of the MVP Index is best shown using QB data after week seven. Based on his weekly value, DeShaun Watson is still solidly in the top ten at QB. But if you grade a player just on what is most important: his consistency, his poor games, and his great games, you can see that Watson falls out of the top 20 altogether. Meanwhile, up at the top, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have pulled away from the rest of the pack as the top-tier elite QBs in the fake football game. 

RB Weekly Value

The crazy season at RB has continued in the fake football game, where every week, it’s a bit of a mystery to figure out which RB will be the hot waiver wire pickup. Everyone rushed to Emari Demarcado two weeks ago, only to see Keontay Ingram get the bulk of touches.  Last week, everyone ran to Ingram to see Demarcado take over. In LA, the Rams signed Darrel Henderson to take over for rookie Zach Evans, who many were blowing their FAAB money on. Henderson ended up being a 17% drop in weekly value from injured starter Kyren Williams.

WR Weekly Value

Tyreek Hill continues to be a cheat code in fake football and is even out-scoring the QBs this season in PPR scoring. Quite a few older WRs have made the top ten this season, too. Puka Nacua had one down week that convinced some that Kupp would take too many targets away from the rookie, but bounced back last week with another tremendous game. Beta testing of the MVP Index continues to show the best values for flex plays when comparing players from different positions. 

TE Weekly Value

Travis Kelce is back to being the undisputed cheat code at TE in fake football. Checking the MVP Index values shows just how fast the drop is at this position for fantasy football. While there are 11 players at both RB and WR that top the Century Mark, when it comes to the TE position, only Kelce is over 100 points. He has more 20+ point games over the past two seasons than most TEs have 10+ point games. 

Conclusion

Each week, my weekly values continue to be more heavily weighted for the 2023 season. My MVP Index and Consistency Ratings will continue to show the big picture from the 2021 season to the current year. Year-end points and even points per game can be very deceiving and, in their best cases, simply show us past performances of what already happened. My weekly tools offer a player value for the future. While the MVP Index is still being beta-tested for use in determining flex starters this season, the results so far have been promising. Good luck in week eight.