Welcome

We will place you within this cycle of FF Lab Science. 

Work moves via the illustrated pipeline

Results will come for you to consider during the assessment phase. 

Consider our Vision and Mission Declarations.

The Science of Fantasy Football website (scienceoffantasyfootball.com), led by Dr. John Bush (often with co-host Dennis Michelsen), applies a data-driven, probability-focused, and decision-science approach to fantasy football. 

It emphasizes “The Science of Winning at Fantasy Football” through probability-driven analysis, consistency indexes, ADP models, and professor-backed insights. The site functions like a “lab” with seasonal tools, analyses, indexes, and extensive podcast content.

scienceoffantasyfootball.com

Key Concepts and Content Currently Covered

The site features a mix of written analyses (especially seasonal/preseason tools) and a large archive of podcast episodes (many under older paths like /2022-to-2025-material/ or /older-podcast-episode/). Recent/featured content includes:

• ADP Analysis and Mock Draft Landscapes: Detailed breakdowns for formats like 12-team PPR (with TEP premiums and deep benches). It uses consensus ADP (e.g., FantasyPros), mock drafts (~870 recent ones), round-by-round positional flows, scarcity insights, and strategies like prioritizing high-floor RB/WR cores or leveraging WR depth.
  scienceoffantasyfootball.com

• Pre-Mortem Tables: “Living documents” for top players at each position (QB, RB, WR, TE). These list potential failure modes (e.g., regression risks like target share/TD regression, workload wear for RBs after heavy carries, usage contingencies, schedule/SOS issues). They draw from decision hygiene principles in the book Noise to reduce overconfidence and narrative bias by anchoring to base rates. Updated regularly (e.g., mid-June 2026 version) with advice to re-run them post-camp or in-season.
  scienceoffantasyfootball.com

• Custom Performance Indexes:

  • Consistency-related metrics.

  • MVP Index: Grades weekly outcomes (helped you win, caused a loss, or kept you in the matchup) using historical median production.

  • BEST Index: Tailored for best ball, focusing on high-upside scores rather than consistency.

• Targeting, Usage, and Weekly Reports: Analysis of vacated targets, team/positional/player targets, game scripts, uncertainty rankings, and “shopping lists” (waiver/streaming ideas). Includes historical weekly materials.

• Rookie and Preseason Analysis: Pre-draft expectations (e.g., for RBs), “What If” positional guides, and early ADP shifts for young/high-volume players.

• Podcast and Discussion Content: Hundreds of episodes covering rankings, data discussions (MVP positional deep dives), expert vs. AI comparisons, thinking in probabilities, adding metrics to gut feelings, the “expert problem” in fantasy, and in-season topics.

• Other Themes: Probability-based thinking, reducing bias/noise, historical best-of analyses, and collaborative elements (vision/mission statements inviting collaborators, lab-style approach).

The site excels at practical, bias-reducing tools (pre-mortems, indexes) and format-specific ADP/usage insights, with a strong emphasis on evidence over hype. Much content is seasonal or podcast-driven, with archives of prior years’ materials.