Science of Fantasy Football Lab

QB vs AGE Discussions 2000 to 2025

QB Age Group Analysis (Top 25% Average PPR Points, 2000–2025)This dataset shows the average seasonal PPR fantasy points for the top 25% of quarterbacks in each age bucket. It highlights clear age-related performance patterns and ties directly into your earlier questions on QB variation.

Overall Summary Statistics (Full Period)

Age Group

Mean (Pts)

Std Dev

CV (%)

Trend Slope (pts/yr)

Notes

21-23

297.90

60.65

20.36%

+2.09

Highest volatility; strong peaks but inconsistent

24-26

301.47

40.08

13.30%

+2.85 (sig.)

Strong recent performers

27-29

297.83

32.07

10.77%

+1.88

Most consistent prime window

30-32

301.10

33.01

10.96%

+0.97

Very stable

33-36

298.04

48.00

16.10%

+0.73

Declining reliability

37+

312.08

62.09

19.89%

+1.98

Highest mean but extreme boom/bust (e.g., outliers like 486 in 2013)

Key Insights:

Prime age sweet spot (27–32): Lowest variation (CV ~11%) and very consistent output. These are the most reliable for elite production year-over-year.
Young (21–26) and Old (33+): Much higher volatility. The youngest group has improved over time but still swings wildly; veterans can produce at a high level but with massive risk.
Recent 10 Years (2016–2025): The gap narrows, but 24–26 year olds lead with the highest average (~323.5 pts), followed closely by 21–23 and 37+.

Drafting Implications for Your 20-Round PPR League

This reinforces a flexible Hero-RB or WR-heavy approach with smart QB timing:

Target QBs in their prime (27–32): Lowest risk of massive underperformance. In recent years, these have delivered the most predictable elite output.
Avoid over-drafting very young (21–23) or very old (37+) QBs early — their high CV matches the overall QB variation you identified. Great late-round or streaming options when value appears.
24–26 window is rising: Modern passing/rushing schemes favor athletic young QBs — worth a slight premium in mid-rounds if the board falls that way.

Recommended QB Draft Strategy (in context of your roster):

Rounds 4–7: Grab a proven 27–32 year old (or high-upside 24–26) as your starter. Do not reach in the first 3 rounds unless elite value falls.
Use bench depth (rounds 8+) for a veteran backup or young upside stash.
This pairs perfectly with WR stability early and RB depth later.

The data shows QB production is age-dependent with clear windows of reliability, which helps mitigate the high overall QB CV we saw earlier. Want me to break this down by decade, add rolling trends, or simulate QB selection in your draft based on age?

Simulate QB age impact on team wins

Analyze RB age group performance trends

Using this data table of the top 25% ranked end of season quarterbacks by fantasy points vs age sectors, analyze the stats and trends and discuss the 2026 situation of the top 20 by ADP quarterbacks. Which are better ADP bargains?

Prime-age QBs (27–32) offer the best combination of consistency and value in 2026 ADP, creating clear ADP bargains among the top 20.Your age-group data (top 25% average PPR points, 2000–2025) reveals strong, actionable trends that directly inform 2026 draft strategy for your 20-round PPR league:

Quick Recap of Key Stats & Trends from Your Data

27–29 and 30–32 age groups = lowest variation (CV ~10.8–11.0%) and very stable high output (~298–301 pts mean). These are the most reliable “set it and forget it” elite producers.
24–26 = strong mean (~301 pts) with improving trend (+2.85 pts/year slope) and moderate CV (13.3%). Modern dual-threat/athletic QBs have elevated this group recently.
21–23 and 33–36 / 37+ = highest volatility (CV 16–20%+). Big boom potential but massive year-to-year swings and injury/decline risk.
Overall pattern: QB scoring environment has grown more variable in the 2020s (as we saw in rolling 5-year CV spikes), but age windows explain much of the risk. Prime-age QBs deliver the steadiest top-25% production.

This aligns perfectly with your earlier findings on high overall QB CV: draft age-aware to mitigate unpredictability.

2026 Top 20 QB ADP + Age Breakdown

Using current FantasyPros consensus PPR ADP (as of mid-May 2026, primarily Underdog data):

ADP Rank

Player (Team)

2026 Age

Age Group

Risk Profile

ADP Value Assessment

Josh Allen (BUF)

30–32

Low (prime)

Fair (elite but priced in)

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

27–29

Low (prime)

Fair

Joe Burrow (CIN)

30–32

Low (prime)

Fair

Jayden Daniels (WAS)

24–26

Moderate (young upside)

Slight reach

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

27–29

Very Low

Strong bargain

Caleb Williams (CHI)

24–26

Moderate

Fair

Drake Maye (NE)

24–26

Moderate (highest upside)

Fair/slight reach

Dak Prescott (DAL)

33–36

High

Overpriced

Justin Herbert (LAC)

27–29

Very Low

Strong bargain

Trevor Lawrence (JAC)

27–29

Low

Good value

Jaxson Dart (NYG)

~23–24

21–23/24–26

High (young/unknown)

Speculative

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

30–32

Low

Fair

Brock Purdy (SF)

27–29

Low

Good value

Bo Nix (DEN)

24–26

Moderate

Good value

Matthew Stafford (LAR)

~38

37+

Very High

Major risk

Jared Goff (DET)

30–32

Low

Solid

Kyler Murray (MIN)

27–29

Low

Fair

Jordan Love (GB)

27–29

Very Low

Excellent late value

Tyler Shough (NO)

27–29

Low

Value

Baker Mayfield (TB)

30–32

Low

Solid

ADP Bargains for 2026 (Best Risk/Reward)

Top-tier bargains (prime-age stability at reasonable cost):

Jalen Hurts (ADP 5, age 28), Justin Herbert (ADP 9, age 28), Trevor Lawrence (ADP 10, age 27), Jordan Love (ADP 18, age 28), Brock Purdy (ADP 13, age 27), and Bo Nix (ADP 14, age 26). These sit squarely in or entering the lowest-CV windows with proven (or rapidly improving) volume + rushing/accuracy floors. They deliver reliable QB1 weeks without the massive injury or regression risk baked into younger or older profiles.
Baker Mayfield (ADP 20, age 31) and Jared Goff (ADP 16, age 32): Late-round prime-age stability — perfect for your deep 20-round bench/streaming flexibility.

Fairly priced but not bargains:

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes: Elite but their ADP reflects it. Still low-risk due to age 29–31.

Overpriced / higher-risk:

Dak Prescott (ADP 8, age 33) and Matthew Stafford (ADP 15, age 38): Entering higher-CV decline windows — avoid early unless massive value falls.

Very young high-ADP (Daniels, Williams, Maye, Dart): Strong upside

(24–26 group has been trending up), but higher historical volatility makes them boom/bust relative to their cost. Great if you’re willing to pair with a stable veteran.

Draft Strategy Tie-In for Your League

Target prime-age QBs in Rounds 4–8 (e.g., Hurts/Herbert/Lawrence/Love/Purdy range). This exploits the lowest CV data while leaving early picks for WR-heavy or Hero-RB builds.
Your 20-round depth lets you easily add a young upside flyer (Maye/Williams) or veteran backup later.
Avoid reaching for 33+ or unproven 21–23 QBs early — the data shows those age groups drive most of the QB position’s unpredictability.

Bottom line: The 2026 ADP market is pricing prime-age consistency reasonably well, but Hurts, Herbert, Love, Purdy, and Nix stand out as the clearest bargains — they give you the most predictable elite output per your own multi-decade data. This is exactly the age-aware edge that turns high QB CV from a liability into an avoidable risk.

TOP 25% End of Season by Average Total Fantasy Points Across 2000 to 2025 by Age Sectors

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