First Look at Opportunity by Team Before the NFL Draft

by Dennis Michelsen

Last year, my podcast co-host Dr. John Bush challenged me to think in terms of probabilities * when it came to players taking on a new role on a team. While this primarily applies to the rookie class, free agency moves can also give us insight into expectations for increased volume. Today, I will look at each team with an eye towards who is a "safe" player at their position for next season and who is likely to have competition for their volume. Let's look at the top-down for each team using my metrics and make a few educated guesses on what teams might do in the upcoming NFL Draft.

https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com/thinking-in-probabilities

MVP Index

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player's statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a common metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.

Opportunity Index

Talent isn’t always enough to get a player a chance in the NFL. Research has shown that if the incumbent at a starting position hasn’t posted an MVP Index of 80 or more that a newcomer is likely to take over the starting position. The Opportunity Index is an attempt to show the probability that a newcomer will take over a starting position in the upcoming season. 

Atlanta Falcons

QB: Added Tua Tagovailoa in free agency to go with second-year player Michael Penix. Penix might not be ready for week one, but it is highly unlikely the Falcons will add more help at the QB position.

RB: Bijan Robinson is the consensus choice for the 1.01 pick in 1QB format Fantasy Football, and he deserves that spot. Brian Robinson was added for depth to replace the departed Tyler Allgaier, which means the Falcons are unlikely to select an RB early in the draft.

WR: Drake London is as solid as they come, and they have Olamide Zacheus and Jahan Dotson for their WR2 and WR3 spots. This situation gives us a base Opportunity Index of 30 points, making it very likely the Falcons will invest draft capital on another WR.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for WR2

TE: Kyle Pitts is coming off a solid season, with an MVP last year at the TE10 level. Austin Hooper was added in free agency, and he could be a good late-round TE choice in Best Ball fantasy football with the new coaching staff running a two-TE set quite often.

Arizona Cardinals

QB: Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew give the new coaching staff two choices at QB, but with a base Opportunity Index of 10 that opens the path to add a rookie QB in the draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 10 for QB

RB: The Cardinals added Tyler Allgeier in Free Agency to go with James Conner and Trey Benson, who are both coming back from injury. There is a base Opportunity Index of 5, so the addition of yet another RB in the draft is possible but not a certainty.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for RB

WR: Marvin Harrison Jr has not lived up to his DNA or draft capital yet. Michael Wilson came on strong after MHJ got hurt. Kendrick Bourne was an interesting addition. The addition of another WR in the NFL Draft is very possible.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for WR2

TE: The Cardinals have one of the top 2 TEs in the league in Trey McBride, so this is a position that is safe to add early in the NFL Draft.

Baltimore Ravens

QB: Lamar Jackson is negotiating his new deal, and this position is safe from competition.

RB: Derek Henry continues to outrun Father Time, and there is no reason to believe that he won't have another solid season. Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali are solid depth pieces.

WR: Zay Flowers is emerging as a solid WR in Fantasy Football and real football. Rashod Bateman has been a disappointment each season, and this position is very weak in depth behind Flowers, so I would expect an early draft pick to be spent here.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 50 for WR2

TE: Mark Andrews signed a new contract, but the Ravens let Isiah Likely go in free agency. If one of the top TEs falls in the draft, this is a position of need to back up Andrews.

Buffalo Bills

QB: Josh Allen is one of the premier QBs in the league, so this position is safe from competition.

RB: The Bills have a solid 1-2-3 punch at RB with James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson, so this is another position the Bills can pass on early in the NFL Draft.

WR: While the Bills have a higher percentage of their Cap Money devoted to this position, they have been swinging and missing in free agency and the draft lately. DJ Moore and Khalil Shakir give them a solid 1-2 punch, but I would expect another WR to be drafted early this year.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 15 for WR2

TE: Dalton Kincaid was excellent when he was healthy last season, and Dawson Knox is as solid as they come at the position in real football, so this is not a position of need for the Bills in the NFL Draft.

Carolina Panthers

QB: Bryce Young hasn't lived up to his first pick draft capital, but the Panthers are not in the market for a QB right now.

RB: Rico Dowdle is gone, but Chuba Hubbard, AJ Dillon, and Jonathon Brooks return. The second injury in a row to Brooks could have the Panthers in the market for a rookie RB.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for RB

WR: Last year, Tetairoa McMillan lived up to the Panthers' expectations, and he should make another step forward this year in his development. Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker, and new arrival John Metchie all offer significant potential, but the Panthers could add another WR to the mix in the NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 45 for WR2

TE: Ja'Tavion Sanders has dealt with injury issues, and his upside potential has yet to be reached, but the Panthers have bigger needs in the draft.

Chicago Bears

QB: George Gervin might not approve, but the ICEMAN is now Caleb Williams.

RB: The Bears have a great combo at RB with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, but if the right guy drops to them, I wouldn't be surprised to see them add even more talent in the draft.

WR: Rome Odunze and Luther Burden give the Bears a great 1-2 punch, but if the right WR falls to them at the right price, I could see more talent being added to the WR Room in the draft.

TE: The tandem of Coleston Loveland and Cole Kmet has this position in good hands.

Cincinnati Bengals

QB: Joe "Cool" Burrow has this position wrapped up for another decade.

RB: Chase Brown has posted two straight seasons with an MVP Index over 100 (Top 12 level), but it gets a little thin behind him, so I could see them adding more talent in the NFL Draft this year.

WR: The dynamic duo of Chase and Higgins, combined with Losivas and Tinsley, makes this a position of strength for the Bengals.

TE: Mike Gesecki hasn't wowed people yet, so this is a position the Bengals could go shopping for in the NFL Draft, but their early-round picks will probably be used on the defensive side of the ball.

Cleveland Browns

QB: Deshaun Watson returns from injury and will battle last year's rookie duo, so the Browns aren't looking to add a QB again this season.

RB: Last year, the only thing the Browns did right was draft two very solid RBs in Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson, so I wouldn't expect them to concentrate on this position in the NFL Draft this year.

WR: Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman both disappointed last season. Wide Receiver is a position the Browns should look to upgrade early in the NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 10 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 45 for WR2

TE: Harold Fannin Jr was another great move by the Browns last year, and he should hold down this position for a long time.

Dallas Cowboys

QB: Dak Prescott has this position locked up right now.

RB: Last year, it was a big mystery who would take over as the top RB, and Javonte Williams looked great in that role most of the year. There is plenty of depth behind him so that they can look elsewhere for talent in this year's NFL Draft.

WR: Cee Dee Lamb is one of the best when he is healthy, and George Pickens is back for another year. The Cowboys might want to put pressure on Pickens to negotiate on a new deal by drafting another talented WR.

TE: Jake Ferguson is a quality TE, and there are some nice depth pieces behind him.

Denver Broncos

QB: Bo Nix has the QB position locked up for the next decade.

RB: RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins are back again this season and form an impressive 1-2 punch, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Broncos add another young RB on day three of the draft.

WR: The trade for Jaylen Waddle, combined with Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, and gadget player Marvin Mims, makes this a position of strength for the Broncos.

TE: Evan Engram and Adam Trautman are not a bad combo at TE, but if the right player falls to them, I could see them add another young player at this position in the draft.

Detroit Lions

QB: Jared Goff is drafted too late every season, even with the big home/away split.

RB: The Lions added Isiah Pacheco to take David Montgomery's role, and Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the best RBs in the league.

The Lions have a great combo with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Isaac Taylor-Stewart, so they will not be spending a high draft pick on this position this year.

TE: They added Ty Conklin to give them some injury protection if Sam LaPorta misses time, so I don't see the Lions spending high draft capital on this position either.

Green Bay

QB: Jordan Love has this position in good hands going forward.

RB: Josh Jacobs is still one of the best in the game, but the depth behind him is so thin that I could see the Packers adding a Top 5-round RB to the mix in the NFL Draft.

WR: Gone are Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, so it won't be a huge surprise if the Packers go shopping for more WR talent in the 2nd or 3rd round of this year's NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 15 for WR2

TE: When he is healthy, Tucker Kraft is one of the best in the NFL, and Luke Musgrave is solid, too, so this is not a position of need in the NFL Draft for the Packers.

Houston Texans

QB: CJ Stroud struggled with turnovers in the playoffs, but this is his job for the foreseeable future.

RB: The addition of David Montgomery to go with last year's rookie Woody Marks means this position will not be a priority for the Texans in this year's NFL Draft.

WR: Last year, they added two excellent rookies to go with veteran Nico Collins, and they could get Tank Dell back too, so this WR Room is stocked well heading into this season.

TE: Dalton Schultz, Forest Moreau, and Cade Stover have this position well-stocked.

Indianapolis Colts

QB: The Colts signed Daniel Jones to big money despite his injury, and they won't be spending draft capital on this position in the NFL Draft.

RB: Jonathon Taylor had another great season, and there is enough depth behind him to make this position a strength again heading into this year.

WR: Alec Pierce and Josh Downs are solid players, but the Colts could use another big playmaker at this position.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 10 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 20 for WR2

TE: Tyler Warren has this position locked up for the foreseeable future.

Jacksonville Jaguars

QB: Trevor Lawrence was very impressive last season, so this position is in good hands for a long time.

RB: The departure of Travis Etienne makes this position a big need for the Jags, with only Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen left on the roster.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 15 for RB

WR: The big question mark heading into this season is whether Brian Thomas Jr will play more like he did in his rookie season. Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and Travis Hunter make this a position of strength even if BTJ struggles.

TE: Brenton Strange looked like one of the best 10 TEs in the league when he was healthy.

Kansas City Chiefs

QB: The addition of Justin Fields gives them insurance in case Patrick Mahomes is human and takes some time to return to action after his injury.

RB: Adding Ken Walker in free agency locks up the starting role for this season, but his injury history and lack of depth behind him should have the Chiefs adding more talent in the NFL Draft.

WR: It's so rare for the Chiefs to draft as high as ninth, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them add a dynamic playmaker at this position. Carnell Tate and Makai Lemon would make sense, but the best fit, if they use that ninth pick, would be to add big-body Jordyn Tyson to Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 35 for WR2

TE: If the Chiefs didn't have so many holes to fill on the defense, I could see them adding one of the top TEs in this draft to go with Travis Kelce in his last season.

Las Vegas Raiders

QB: The worst-kept secret in the NFL draft is that the Raiders will take Fernando Mendoza with the first pick to go with veteran Kirk Cousins.

RB: Last year, the Raiders used the 6th pick in the draft to select Ashton Jeanty, but the lack of depth behind him means I would expect another rookie to be added on Day 2 or Day 3 of this year's draft.

WR: When Tre Tucker is the most productive player in the WR Room, it's obvious this is a position of need, even though they added two rookies last season.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 40 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 40 for WR2

TE: The Raiders are strong at TE with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer.

Los Angeles Chargers

QB: Justin Herbert has this position locked down for the foreseeable future.

RB: The Chargers added Keaton Mitchell to Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal, making this a position of strength for the team heading into this season.

WR: Ladd McConkey saw a big decline in his production, while Quentin Johnson had the best year of his career so far. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them add a rookie in the NFL Draft at this position.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 15 for WR2

TE: Oronde Gadsden was a great addition with pick 165 last year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them add another playmaker at the position this year.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 20 for TE

Los Angeles Rams

QB: Matthew Stafford is nearing the End of his Hall of Fame-worthy career, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Rams add his heir apparent in the draft this season.

RB: Kyren Williams had another solid year, and Blake Corum showed promise when he got a chance. The Rams also have Jarquez Hunter on the bench, making this position solid.

WR: Puka Nacua and Davante Adams made a great 1-2 punch last season. With Adams another year closer to the End of his career and Nacua involved in off-field issues recently, it would not be a surprise to see the Rams add another WR early in the NFL Draft.

TE: Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee, and Terrance Ferguson give the Rams three solid players at the position.

Miami Dolphins

QB: The Fins took a huge cap hit getting rid of Tua and signed unproven free agent Malik Willis, so this position is likely set for this season.

RB: De'Von Achane has not been happy with the roster cleaning with the Dolphins and probably would be happier elsewhere. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them reset the salary clock at the RB position in this year's draft and deal Achane.

WR: Gone are Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, so it looks like the Dolphins' first pick this season is likely to be at the WR position. Malik Washington and Jalen Tolbert are the only veterans right now.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 45 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 45 for WR2

TE: Greg Dulcich is the only player at this position with anything on his resume. Tight End is another position the Dolphins could upgrade early in the draft.  

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for TE

Minnesota Vikings

QB: Adding Kyler Murray to go with disappointing second-year player JJ McCarthy might not be the recipe for success, but it's doubtful they invest in another QB this season.

RB: Both veteran RBs Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones return this season, but an upgrade at the position in the NFL Draft might be a great idea.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for RB

WR: Last year, Justin Jefferson showed that there is no such thing as "QB Proof" in Fantasy Football. Jordan Addison has avoided a suspension, but his off-field troubles must concern management, making this another position of need in the NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 25 for WR2

TE: TJ Hockenson had an awful season, but will be another year removed from a serious injury and should bounce back this season. I would expect an addition in the NFL Draft, too.

New England Patriots

QB: Drake Maye is their franchise QB for the next decade.

RB: Rhamondre Stevenson and TreyVeon Henderson might annoy Fantasy Football managers with their split of touches, but they have this position in good hands again this season.

WR: Romeo Doubs was added, but Stefon Diggs is gone. Kayshon Boutte was off to an amazing start last season with four of his first eight games over 13 PPR points, but he has never been able to hold down the top WR spot in the past. Kyle Williams has potential, but is only entering his second season. Look for an upgrade in the NFL Draft at this position.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 20 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 20 for WR2

TE: Hunter Henry had another solid season, but Austin Hooper left for free agency. This position should also see an upgrade in the NFL Draft.

New Orleans Saints

QB: Tyler Shough had a solid season as a rookie, and that will allow the Saints to fill other positions in this year's NFL Draft.

RB: Free Agent addition Travis Etienne joins Alvin Kamara, Devin Neal, and Kendre Miller in a well-stocked RB Room, so this is not a position of need in this year's NFL Draft either.

WR: Chris Olave had a great season and holds down that WR1 spot, but the depth behind him is more of a WR3 or WR4 type, so look for the Saints to add a talented rookie in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 55 for WR2

TE: Juwan Johnson is one of the underrated TEs in the league, and Noah Fant was added in free agency, making this a strong position heading into the season.

New York Giants

QB: If he can stay healthy, the Giants have their franchise QB in Jaxson Dart.

RB: Even though Cam Skattebo looked great as a rookie before he got hurt and Tyrone Tracy offers a great second RB, it would not be a shock to see them add Jeremiah Love in the first round or another talented rookie on day two.

WR: Darnell Mooney was added in free agency to go with Malik Nabers, who should be 100% coming back from an injury early last season. Wide Receiver is another position of need for the G-Men.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 35 for WR2

TE: This position is in good hands with the addition of Isiah, likely to go with talented youngster Daniel Bellinger.

New York Jets

QB: Calling the Jets a trainwreck would be a severe insult…to trainwrecks! Geno Smith was added, and without an attractive rookie in the first round after Mendoza, it appears he is the man for this season.

RB: Breece Hall had a down year, but behind that offensive line, anyone would have looked ordinary. Isiah Davis and Braelon Allen give the Jets solid depth at the position.

WR: Garret Wilson is one of the top players in the league when he stays healthy and had a solid Fantasy season going until his injury despite awful QB play last season. Adonai Mitchell is an interesting prospect, but he has yet to live up to his potential. Look for the Jets to add some rookie talent at the position.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 45 for WR2

TE: Mason Taylor showed promise as a rookie, and with so many holes on this team, this position is probably set for now.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB: Have you ever seen a defending Super Bowl Champion with so much infighting like the Eagles? Jalen Hurts will hold down this position until further notice.

RB: Saquon Barkley's production saw a big dip last season, but he still has some miles left on him. Tank Bigsby is a solid backup, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them shop for a rookie on Day 2 or 3 in the NFL Draft this season.

WR: AJ Brown is still an Eagle, but the trade rumors and cap hit suggest any trade wouldn't happen until June. Devonta Smith is good enough to take over the WR1 spot, and Hollywood Brock and Dontayvion Wicks provide solid depth if they select a WR on the first two days of the NFL Draft, which is a sure sign that AJ Brown is being dealt.

TE: It was a bit of a surprise that they are bringing Dallas Goedert back, and along with Grant Calcaterra, they make this a position of strength.

Pittsburgh Steelers

QB: It appears that AARP member Aaron Rodgers will return for his final season and that the Steelers will wait until 2027 to add a QB in the NFL Draft.

RB: Veteran Rico Dowdle was brought in to share the workload with Jaylen Warren. Rookie flop Kaleb Johnson might benefit from a new coach. They could also add a rookie on Day 2.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 10 for RB

WR: Michael Pittman joins DK Metcalf for a solid 1-2 punch at the position, but they could still benefit from adding a slot receiver to the mix from this year's NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 10 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 10 for WR2

TE: Pat Freiermuth could benefit from the coaching change and is part of a solid TE room.

Seattle Seahawks

QB: Sam Darnold has this position locked up for years to come.

RB: The departure of KW3 and the injury situation with Zach Charbonnet make this a position of need for the Seahawks early in the NFL Draft. Emmanuel Wilson is an interesting sleeper for Fantasy Football.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for RB

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba might be the best in the league, but the depth behind him is limited to role player types. I would expect them to add a rookie WR early in the NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 35 for WR2

TE: AJ Barner, Eric Saubert, and Elijah Arroyo team up to make this a position of strength.

San Francisco 49ers

QB: Brock Purdy has this position locked up for the foreseeable future.

RB: Christian McCaffrey had another amazing season, with Jordan James and Isaac Guerrendo providing the depth needed to make this a solid position.

WR: Mike Evans and Christian Kirk have been added to solidify this position, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a rookie added early in the NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for WR2

TE: George Kittle is coming back from injury, and Jake Tonges looked good coming off the bench last season, making this a position of strength.

Tampa Bay Bucs

QB: Baker Mayfield has this position locked down for another couple of seasons.

RB: Bucky Irving, Kenneth Gainwell, and Sean Tucker make this a solid position for the Bucs.

WR: Mike Evans is gone, but the combo of Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, Jalen McMillan, and Tez Johnson has this position solid heading into the new season.

TE: Cade Otton returns, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a talented rookie added to the mix.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for TE

Tennessee Titans

QB: They think they have their future franchise QB in Cam Ward.

RB: Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are a solid 1-2 punch, but it might be hard for them to pass on the dynamic rookie Jeremiah Love.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 30 for RB

WR: Wan' Dale Robinson is a nice addition to a group that also features veteran Calvin Ridley and youngsters Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. Wide Receiver is another position that could handle an upgrade in this year's NFL Draft.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 40 for WR2

TE: Gunnar Helm is a very promising youngster at the position.

Washington Redskins

QB: Jayden Daniels should be solid on his return from injury.

RB: Rachaad White and Jerome Ford were added to Chris Rodriguez and Jacory Croskey Merritt, making this a strong group, but they would have a hard time passing on dynamic rookie Jeremiah Love.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for RB

WR: Terry McLaurin is the only solid WR on the roster, making this a position of need early in the NFL Draft this season.

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 5 for WR1

OPPORTUNITY INDEX 55 for WR2

TE: Chig Okonkwo was added in free agency to go with Ben Sinnott and John Bates, so this is not a position of need in this year's NFL Draft.

Conclusion

The use of the MVP Index to show Opportunity in Fantasy Football has worked quite well in recent seasons. This article is the first look at potential opportunities before the NFL draft. After the draft, I will take another look at each position on a position-by-position basis.