What a residual is on this board

Residuals measure how far off a model’s prediction is from the observed value. Mathematically:

residual (e) = Observed Value (y) − Predicted Value (ŷ)

We calculated two leftovers for every player:

1. A model residual versus a projected FPG (or the MAG model’s own predicted MAG). That is Reedy_ADP_Residual and MAG_Model_Residual.

2. The average difference between the player’s method score and the round’s mean leftover for that method. That is RS Avg Diff and MAG Avg Diff. This last column highlights the method’s viewpoint inside the round.

We colored the Average Diff numbers so agreement and disagreement are visible at a glance. Green is above the round. Red is below. The same color on both methods indicates agreement. 

Split color is the fusion test.

We will use this board to beta-test by round, by position, and by method. We expect to review the results in January 2027.

The spreadsheet columns

# Column What it answers

1 ADP Market price

2 ADP_Round Ceiling of ADP ÷ 12

3 Player Name

4 Team NFL team

5 Pos QB / RB / WR / TE

6 Reedy_ADP_Residual Reedy versus the ADP-implied finish

7 MAG_Model_Residual MAG versus predicted MAG

8 Player Repeated for the color pane

9 RS Avg Diff Reedy leftover versus the round mean

10 MAG Avg Diff MAG leftover versus the round mean

Rounds 1–2 

Figure 1. Round 1. The right pane is the round viewpoint. Jeanty is the only first-round double-red on average diff.

Round 1 is not an argument about who can play. It is an argument about who is expensive inside a room of elites. Chase, Puka, and Gibbs are green on Reedy’s round view. Bijan and CMC print the largest MAG-model residuals in the first twelve picks — the volume model did not expect that much MAG at those ADPs — while Reedy is only modestly above, or flat to, the round.

Two first-round names fail the color test. Brock Bowers is red on both average diffs (−4.9 RS, −26 MAG). Ashton Jeanty is double-red (−9.4 RS, −28 MAG). In best ball, those are the two seats to let someone else take.

Figure 2. Round 2. McBride is the cleanest double-green. Jefferson is the Reedy fade.

Trey McBride is the slide’s best pair: RS +3.3, MAG avg +50.8. Derrick Henry is the Reedy leftover (RS +6.9) with MAG only a tick below the round — a best-ball surplus back. Justin Jefferson is red on Reedy (−8.6). Walker and Hampton are MAG craters. Lamb, Achane, London, and Loveland stay green enough to take.

Rounds 3–5

Figure 3. Round 3. Josh Allen is the Reedy spike. Warren and DeVonta Smith are double-red.

Josh Allen is why the third round exists on this board. RS avg diff +10.4. That is a first-round composite sitting in the late third, which is exactly the best-ball shape you want at quarterback. George Pickens is the wideout version (+7.8 RS, +14.8 MAG). Malik Nabers is MAG-hot (+35) and only mildly Reedy-positive. Tyler Warren and DeVonta Smith are the pass.

Round 4. Is Tee Higgins: RS +13.1 at ADP 41.5, MAG still green. Josh Jacobs is green on both. Tetairoa McMillan, Jaylen Waddle, and Ladd McConkey are the fades. 

Round 5.  Davante Adams (RS +12.4, MAG +24) versus Bhayshul Tuten (RS −11.9, MAG avg −68). Tuten is the largest MAG hole on the early board. Rome Odunze is the opposite split — MAG +46, Reedy slightly negative — a volume ticket, not a composite ticket.

Rounds 6–8

Round 6. Tucker Kraft (RS +10.4, MAG +24) and Jameson Williams (RS +9.5, MAG +32). Lamar Jackson is Reedy-green and MAG-flat: a 1QB / best-ball take on the composite, not on extra MAG. Jaylen Warren and Parker Washington are the fades.

Round 7.  Joe Burrow: RS +15.0, MAG avg about zero. Drake Maye: RS −9.6, MAG +15. Same neighborhood, opposite leftover. In best ball, you can roster both later. On this board, if they share a pick window, Burrow is the Reedy seat, and Maye is the MAG seat. George Kittle is Reedy +10 and MAG +33, with the health flag still sitting off the numbers. Isiah Likely is a MAG disaster (−65).

Round 8. Adds Jayden Daniels (RS +16.3) as the wait-quarterback the composite still loves, Dallas Goedert as the Reedy tight end (+9.9), and Quentin Johnson as MAG +35 with Reedy still green. Pittman, Downs, and Tyson are red.

Rounds 9–12

The wait-quarterbacks stay Reedy-green and MAG-flat or MAG-red: Hurts, Herbert, Dak, Purdy. That is the best-ball late-QB cluster. The composite says the seat is fine. MAG is not offering a bonus.

Round

9 Fusion takes Hurts, Andrews, Jake Ferguson, Jayden Reed

  Fusion fades Wan'Dale, Rachaad White, Diggs

10 Fusion takes Herbert, Dak, Makai Lemon, Addison

  Fusion fades Matthew Golden, Keaton Mitchell

11 Fusion takes     Jaxson Dart, Deebo, Charbonnet

        Fusion fades        Okonkwo, Juwan Johnson, Chris Rodriguez

12 Fusion takes Purdy, Terrance Ferguson (RS Dart), Bo Nix

        Fusion fades        Jalen Coker, Jayden Higgins

Matthew Golden is the round-10 double crater (RS −12.8, MAG −67). 

Terrance Ferguson in round 12 is the sharpest late split on the sheet: RS +17, MAG avg −34. He is a Reedy dart. He is not a MAG starter.

The deep board

After pick 150, the MAG column starts printing lottery tickets. Kenyon Sadiq and Ray Davis show MAG avg diffs above +80. Tank Dell is +94.5 MAG and −8 Reedy. Greg Dulcich is the other extreme: RS +16, MAG −115.

Best ball can hold those tickets. Season-long drafts should not stack them. 

The late Reedy names that survive a one-dart cap: Ferguson, Dulcich, Jauan Jennings (RS +6.4, MAG +66), Eli Stowers (RS +20.6), Jaydon Blue, Oronde Gadsden, Gunnar Helm. 

Pick one or two for best ball. 

Leave the MAG-only smash-week names — Dell, Davis, Sadiq, Jeudy — as upside, not as the build.

The operating rule

• Look at RS Avg Diff and MAG Avg Diff first. 

• Those two columns are the methods’ viewpoint inside the round.

• Green/green: both methods like the player versus his peers. Take the seat.

• Red/red: both methods fade the player at this price. Pass.

• Green RS / red MAG: Reedy leftover. Surplus over volume.

• Red RS / green MAG: MAG leftover. Volume the composite faded. Pay only if you need that starter this week.

• After round 8, one leftover dart is enough. The rest is January evidence, not August roster construction.

The January 2027 test

This sheet is a freeze, not a result. We will score it by round, by position, and by method against finish and against points. 

The interesting cells are not Chase and Gibbs. Those names will look smart when they stay healthy and dumb when they do not. 

The test is the split-color rows: Higgins versus Odunze, Burrow versus Maye, Kraft versus Warren, Ferguson versus Dell.

Until those finishes exist, the fusion is a viewpoint within each round—two instruments, colored so we can see where they still disagree.