Sixpack of Players: Best Targets by Round

by Dennis Michelsen @DMICmedia 

This time of the year, we see so many “Best Picks by Round” articles, but there are 12 selections in each round, so that leaves 11 Team Managers without a viable selection. We also see so many of these “Best Builds from Draft Slot Whatever” articles, and those are always interesting, but the longer you go, the more likely you are not to have those players available. My cheat sheet today offers a six-pack of players for each round, with at least one player from each third of that round. The ADP is from August 25th in FFPC 1QB redraft leagues, so your league might differ. Each round, I will mention my six-pack of guys to target, and sometimes I might even have an honorable mention. Players will be listed by position, in ADP order. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose with a very low-scoring week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. The MVP Index combines these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. One statistical split I use for upside potential is the “Best 8 Game MVP” from the year before that only counts positive outcomes. This has been a good predictor of upside for part-time and young players. 

Round One

I have seven safe targets in the first round this season, so I had to narrow the field down to just six for this article. With Puka Nacua facing injury concerns and a possible suspension, that choice was easy. They are not shown in 1-6 order but rather by position. 

RB: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook

WR: Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon Ra St Brown

Honorable Mention: If these six and Puka Nacua are gone, I would consider either Brock Bowers or Trey McBride due to the TE Premium scoring at FFPC. 

Round Two

Once again in round two, there are plenty of potential picks, which is why I encourage avoiding as much risk as possible in the first two rounds. Why reach for potential upside when you have Prime Picks waiting to choose from that have a reliable track record? 

RB: Kenneth Walker, De’Von Achane, Omarion Hampton, Derrick Henry

WR: Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown

Honorable Mention: If Chase Brown would slip back into the second round, he would be my top choice here, but his latest ADP has him going at pick 11.1. Saquon Barkley at RB, Cee Dee Lamb at WR, or Trey McBride are all valuable picks in this round if my favorite six are gone. 

Round Three

There are not as many locks for Top 5 performance at each position starting in this round, so this is when you can start taking on a little more risk. While I prefer a late-round QB strategy in my team builds this season, Josh Allen has such big-game potential that you must consider him late in this round. 

RB: Jeremiah Love, Kyren Williams

WR: Malik Nabers, Chris Olave, Rashee Rice

QB: Josh Allen

Honorable Mention: If Colston Loveland would slip into the third round, he would have to be considered. His Best 8 Game MVP Index was 112, and if we get “Playoff Colston” all season, he could finish as TE1. George Pickens and DeVonta Smith are also intriguing picks at WR. 

Round Four

As we head into round four, the uncertainty starts to grow. Research by Professor John Bush shows that the first four rounds are the best for value versus ADP, but this is where a few landmines can be found. While I still prefer a safe floor, this is where I start focusing more on players' upside. 

RB: Josh Jacobs, Travis Etienne, D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery

WR: Garret Wilson, Emeka Egbuka

Honorable Mention: Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and DJ Moore are all intriguing picks at WR in this round, and the potential upside for RB Cam Skattebo is also a possible move here if the other RBs are gone. I liked Swift better in the 5th round, but he still has plenty of value late in this round. 

Round Five

If you look at the plot of ADP versus value in Fantasy Football, you will find that rounds 5 through 10 are the Dead Zone 

(see https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com/the-winners-curse-in-snake-redraft-drafts). 

In the first four rounds, I could make a case for almost every player being picked at that ADP, but as we enter the fifth, there are more cases against players. 

RB: Bucky Irving, Jadarian Price, TreVeyon Henderson

WR: Luther Burden, Davante Adams, Rome Odunze

Honorable Mention: Bhayshul Tuten is the one RB in this zone that I might choose if my team build to this point is weak at RB. The volume breakdown at RB is uncertain in Jacksonville this season, which is why he didn’t make the top six, but his MVP Upside of 100 (RB12 level) is juicy. 

Round Six

The caution flag is flying as we head into the sixth lap of our Fantasy Football race. There is still lots of upside potential in this round, of course, but there are also reasons to be frightened about any player being drafted from this point on in the draft. 

RB: Jonathon Brooks

WR: Mike Evans, Marvin Harrison, Carnel Tate

TE: Tucker Kraft, George Kittle

Honorable Mention: Rhamondre Stevenson will still get plenty of volume in that Patriots backfield; in fact, he could lead in volume to start the year. I will have a few team builds this season where I draft both Patriots RBs, and I might even play them both on occasion. Kyle Pitts is another player here to consider with his new coach very TE-friendly. I would also consider QB Drake Maye in this round. 

Round Seven

If Drake Maye survives until this round as the current ADP shows, then he is the automatic pick. The landmines start getting placed closer together in this round, with each pick offering great reward but even more risk at every step. 

QB: Drake Maye, Joe Burrow

WR: Brian Thomas, Chris Godwin

TE: Travis Kelce

RB: RJ Harvey

Honorable Mention: Some Fantasy Football analysts might smirk when I mention Old Man Kelce, Taylor’s other half, but last year with Mahomes at QB his MVP Index was 71 (TE3) and his Best 8 Games was 125 (TE1). Thomas and Godwin struggled last year while playing hurt. Tony Pollard is another interesting pick here, but protect him later in the draft with the rookie. 

Round Eight

This is the round to ask the WHAT IF about each player and lean into the positive side of those potential outcomes. In many seasons, this is a great place to shop for a value QB or TE, but most of the better values at each position have been pushed down later this year. 

WR: Courtland Sutton, Michael Pittman

RB: JK Dobbins, Jordan Mason

TE: Dalton Kincaid

QB: Jayden Daniels

Honorable Mention: Jayden Daniels is my favorite pick in this round, but there is quite a bit of risk associated with that pick, so drafting another QB as soon as possible would be a great idea if you take Daniels. Last year’s rookie hype RB Jacory Croskey Merritt is an interesting pick here if you don’t mind taking a gamble. Quentin Johnson is another player the upside consistency metrics like.

Round Nine

We are deep into the potential Dead Zone right now as we enter this round, but the decisions made in these next three rounds often win leagues. Every player has a story of why they could be that gem you want to pick up, but many of them will end up being useless rocks weighing down your roster. They are bad enough not to start but too good to drop. 

QB: Jalen Hurts, Caleb Williams

RB: Chubba Hubbard, Rachaad White

WR: Stefon Diggs, KC Concepcion

Honorable Mention: Caleb Williams and Stefon Diggs are my favorite picks in this round, and it’s not even close. Both players could hit Top 5 value if everything falls into place and you are getting them at QB7 and WR42 pricing. Jayden Reed is another intriguing WR at this cost. His career-best MVP Index of 90 represents upside of WR15 production. 

Round Ten

The top half of this round was filled with players whose upside story is worth investing in this year. The bottom of the round got rather lean. The range of logical outcomes from floor to ceiling is huge, so the misses don’t matter as much and only the hits are important from now on in the draft. 

QB: Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence

WR: Matthew Golden, Makai Lemon

TE: Juwan Johnson

RB: Chris Rodriguez

Last year before the injuries to his offensive line, Justin Herbert had an MVP index of 150 (QB1), but in his last six games it dropped to just 17 (QB>30). Herbert has already lost his starting center, and one of his tackles is already missing practice time. Trevor Lawrence is one of my favorite value QB picks. Both WRs mentioned above are huge boom/bust guys but one of them is likely to hit. Dak Prescott didn’t make the list but would be welcome on my teams as part of a two QB tandem.

Round Eleven

This is where I usually go shopping for my rookie and second-year RB picks to round out my roster. The Better Than Zero strategy refuses to draft ordinary WRs and instead takes risky upside WRs and lots of RBs. The following rounds are also great for second TEs and QBs. 

WR: Deebo Samuel, Xavier Worthy

RB: Jonah Coleman, Woody Marks

TE: Terrance Ferguson

QB: Jaxson Dart

Honorable Mention: Jonah Coleman is my favorite late RB pick this season because he has the opportunity with one injury to take over excellent volume on a very good offense. Last year, Woody Marks was disappointing but had only one fumble, so he should be trusted behind a better offensive line. MarShawn Lloyd is my extra pick here. He has never stayed healthy, but he should be the next man up behind Josh Jacobs on a solid offense. 

Round Twelve

One of the ways to win in Fantasy Football is to be on the opposite side of the narrative being spewed by almost every Fantasy Football analyst and then being right. Last year’s knee injury has everyone writing off the value of Patrick Mahomes in Fantasy Football due to reduced rushing yardage. This is a man who wobbled for 30-plus yards on a bum ankle in the playoffs. He should be the steal of the year. 

QB: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Bo Nix

RB: Zach Charbonnett, Mike Washington

TE: Hunter Henry

Honorable Mention: The QB values in this round are astounding, and Matthew Stafford is even a great pick if the others are gone. Tank Bigsby is also an interesting choice here because he is the next man up if anything happens to Saquon Barkley on what should be an improved offense this season. 

Round Thirteen

This is the Wild Wild West of Fantasy Football drafts, but if you can do an Artemus Gordon imitation and build a solid creation from scratch in this round, you will increase your chances of winning by being right in lucky round 13.  

RB: Dylan Sampson

TE: TJ Hockenson, Kenyon Sadiq

QB: Jared Goff, Kyler Murray

WR: Cyrus Allen

Honorable Mention: Cyrus Allen only got chosen because I needed someone at the bottom third of the round, but someone must catch some of the other 30 TD passes from Mahomes after Kelce gets his 15. (A Chiefs fan can dream) Goff is my favorite QB2 this season once again and has a nice Fantasy Football playoff schedule. Hockenson and Sadiq are intriguing TE picks. Forget ADP here if the top five are gone and dip into the later round RBs or wildcard WR choices with confidence. 

Round Fourteen

This round and the rest are chock full of RBs with the opportunity to have a path to volume with just one injury. But this round is also the home to one of the bigger upside QB picks in Baker Mayfield. Baker played hurt last season, which led to an MVP index of just 75 (QB12 level). In 2024, he hit 129 (QB3). I will lean into that upside for my second QB of the draft any time. 

QB: Baker Mayfield, Tyler Shough

WR: Ja’Kobi Lane

RB: Emmett Johnson, Kaelon Black, Ray Davis

Honorable Mention: Isiah Pacheco and Brian Robinson are also good handcuff RB picks at this point in the draft. Don’t be afraid to reach 1-2 rounds ahead though if any of the RBs mentioned here are a handcuff to your own starting RB. Jalen Nailor is another WR in this round I am willing to take a shot at because someone must finish second place in targets to Brock Bowers. 

Round Fifteen

While, as usual, there are a few longshot RBs worth taking at this point in the draft, I am intrigued by some of the WRs that have slipped this late in the draft this season. Disregard ADP and take some of the RBs even later, as mentioned in the final chapter of this article. 

WR: Keenan Allen, Tre Harris, Tank Dell, Caleb Douglass

TE: AJ Barner

RB: Kaytron Allen

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen’s ADP is rising fast, so you might need to reach the 13th to add him to your team. His performance tailed off at the end of the season when the entire Chargers offensive line was hurt. Keenan’s Best 8 Game MPV was 87, which is a solid WR16 level. Jordan Love is another intriguing pick as a QB2 here with his career-best MVP Index of 100 (QB7) back in 2023. 

Super Sleepers

Many team managers start taking a K or DEF as early as the 13th round, and most fill these slots in the 16th and 17th rounds. In most cases, I wait until the 19th and 20th to fill these slots, though I'll occasionally grab the K or DEF I want starting in the 17th round. The final picks are dart throws based on opportunity. 

RB: Demond Claiborne, Nicholas Singleton, Kimani Vidal, Najee Harris, Adam Randall, LeQuint Allen

WR: Malachi Fields, Kayshon Boutte, Germie Bernard, Jack Bech

Explanation: Claiborne and Singleton are my two most-rostered RBs this season because both have a path to volume, with or without injuries. Over the past six years, every RB that eventually got replaced had not posted a full-season MVP Index over 90 in the previous two seasons. Pollard and Mason fit this criteria, and Aaron Jones dropped from 94 in 2024 to 33 last season. Vidal and Harris also have a path to volume if situations break down in front of them. Randall and Allen are interesting handcuff picks. The WRs mentioned are longshots to perform, but all four have a logical path to targets. 

Conclusion

In the first four rounds, I stay close to ADP because the research shows the consensus is fairly accurate versus expected production. By the 5th through 10th rounds, we enter the infamous “Dead Zone,” so I often reach 10-15 spots ahead of ADP. Once you get into the deeper rounds, the ADP is not even worth paying attention to as you follow the “Better Than Zero” theory of handcuffing your own starting RBs when possible. Good luck in your drafts this season.