Science of Fantasy Football Lab
Each round = 12 picks. Cumulative totals shown at end of each round (based on ADP clustering).
Rounds 1-3 (Picks 1-36): Elite skill players dominate. Heavy RB/WR start.
Round 1 (1-12): ~7-8 RBs, 4-5 WRs, 0-1 TE. (Top RBs/WRs fly off the board.)
Round 2 (13-24): ~5-6 RBs, 5-6 WRs, 0-1 TE.
Round 3 (25-36): ~4-5 RBs, 5-6 WRs, 1-2 TEs/QBs.
Cumulative by end Round 3: ~16-19 RBs, ~15-17 WRs, ~1-2 TEs, ~1-2 QBs.
Rounds 4-6 (Picks 37-72): Balanced but WR-heavy with first QBs/TEs.
Round 4: ~3-4 RBs, 6-7 WRs, 1 TE/QB.
Round 5: ~3-4 RBs, 5-6 WRs, 1-2 TEs/QBs.
Round 6: ~3 RBs, 5 WRs, 2-3 QBs/TEs.
Cumulative by end Round 6 (~72 picks): ~25-28 RBs, ~30-33 WRs, ~4-6 TEs, ~4-6 QBs.
Rounds 7-10 (Picks 73-120): Depth + streaming starts. RB/WR falloff accelerates.
Round 7-8: Mix of WR3/4s, RB3/4s, QB2s, TE2s.
Round 9-10: More WRs/backup RBs.
Cumulative by end Round 10: ~35-40 RBs, ~45-50 WRs, ~8-10 TEs, ~10-12 QBs.
Rounds 11-15+ (Picks 121-180+): Handcuffs, upside flyers, QB/TE streamers, DST/K late. Deep benches favor taking extra RBs/WRs.
Cumulative by end Round 15 (~180 picks): Most relevant starters gone; ~45+ RBs, ~55+ WRs drafted.
RBs:
12th ~Rd 2-3 (pick ~21),
24th ~Rd 5-6 (~60),
36th ~Rd 8-9 (~100),
48th ~Rd 12-13 (~150),
60th ~Rd 15+.
WRs:
12th ~Rd 3 (~30-36),
24th ~Rd 5-6 (~55-65),
36th ~Rd 7-8 (~85-95),
48th ~Rd 10 (~115-120),
60th ~Rd 13+.
QBs:
12th ~Rd 8-9 (~90-100),
24th ~Rd 13-15+ (streaming territory).
TEs (TEP boost):
12th ~Rd 10-11 (~115-130),
24th much later.
Approximate round where key players at each threshold are typically selected (snake flow; varies by board).
Round Picks Typical Mix (RBs/WRs/QBs/TEs) (RB WR QB TE Milestones)
1 1-12 7-8 RB / 4-5 WR RB1-8 WR1-5
2 13-24 5-6 RB / 5-6 WR / 0-1 TE RB9-12 WR6-10 QB1-2 TE1
3 25-36 4-5 RB / 5-6 WR / 1 TE/QB RB13-18 WR11-15 QB3 TE2
4 37-48 3-4 RB / 6 WR / 1-2 QB/TE RB19-22 WR16-20 QB4-5 TE3
5 49-60 3-4 RB / 5-6 WR RB23-26 WR21-25 QB6-7
6 61-72 3 RB / 5 WR / 2 QB/TE RB27-30 WR26-30 QB8-10 TE4-5
7-8 73-96 3-4 RB / 5-6 WR / 1-2 QB/TE RB31-35 WR31-38 QB11-12 TE6-8
9-10 97-120 3 RB / 5 WR / 1-2 QB/TE RB36-40 WR39-48 QB13-15 TE9-12
11+ 121+ Depth / Handcuffs / Streamers RB41+ WR49+ QB16+ TE13+
RB % taken: By end Rd 3 (~25-30% of relevant pool), end Rd 6 (~45-50%), end Rd 10 (~60-65%). Heavy early investment rewarded in PPR but risky due to injury.
WR % taken: By end Rd 3 (~25%), end Rd 6 (~50%), end Rd 10 (~75-80%). WRs provide more volume/safety in PPR + deep benches.
QB Scarcity: Very low early. Top 12 not until ~Rd 8+.
Wait-able in 1QB; focus on high-upside arms (Allen/Jackson early if value, then mid-round).
TE Scarcity (1.5 TEP): Elevated. Elite TEs (Bowers ~Rd 2-3, McBride ~Rd 3) go much earlier than standard PPR. Tier 2 in Rd 5-7. After that, streaming or late upside.
BTZ (Zero RB or flexible variants) thrives in PPR with deep benches by prioritizing high-floor WRs/TEs early and backfilling RBs with volume/upside later:
Go WR/TE heavy early (especially with TEP): Secure 4-5 WRs + Bowers/McBride by Rd 4-5. Leverage WR depth in PPR.
RB approach: Target committee backs or high-efficiency RBs in Rd 4-7 (e.g., around the 24th-36th RB marks). Use deep benches for handcuffs/late lottery tickets. Avoid reaching for RB3s early.
QB/TE: Draft one elite TE early if falling; wait on QB until Rd 7-9 for premium weekly upside without early opportunity cost.
Flow: In snake drafts, mid-round picks benefit from value slides. Late rounds reward RB/WR depth hunting.
Risks: Injury-prone RBs make early heavy RB risky; BTZ mitigates via diversification.
Risers: Some WRs like certain mid-tier options and rookie RBs/WRs gaining buzz in mocks. Elite TEs continuing upward due to TEP. Select QBs (e.g., mid-tier risers) moving into better ranges.
Fallers: Some veteran RBs/WRs sliding (injury or competition concerns). Check specific players like certain WRs or rookie hype that cooled.
Overall: Early mocks show stable top tier (Chase, Gibbs/Robinson, etc.) with volatility in mid-round RBs and rookie WRs. Monitor OTAs for further moves.
Use this as a guide—adapt to your league's tendencies, and always cross-reference live ADP/tools closer to your draft. Happy drafting!