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Science of Fantasy Football Lab
Round-by-Round Draft Landscape (Approximate Positional Mix)
Round-by-Round Draft Landscape (Approximate Positional Mix)
Each round = 12 picks. Cumulative totals shown at end of each round (based on ADP clustering).
Rounds 1-3 (Picks 1-36): Elite skill players dominate. Heavy RB/WR start.
Round 1 (1-12): ~7-8 RBs, 4-5 WRs, 0-1 TE. (Top RBs/WRs fly off the board.)
Round 2 (13-24): ~5-6 RBs, 5-6 WRs, 0-1 TE.
Round 3 (25-36): ~4-5 RBs, 5-6 WRs, 1-2 TEs/QBs.
Cumulative by end Round 3: ~16-19 RBs, ~15-17 WRs, ~1-2 TEs, ~1-2 QBs.
Rounds 4-6 (Picks 37-72): Balanced but WR-heavy with first QBs/TEs.
Round 4: ~3-4 RBs, 6-7 WRs, 1 TE/QB.
Round 5: ~3-4 RBs, 5-6 WRs, 1-2 TEs/QBs.
Round 6: ~3 RBs, 5 WRs, 2-3 QBs/TEs.
Cumulative by end Round 6 (~72 picks): ~25-28 RBs, ~30-33 WRs, ~4-6 TEs, ~4-6 QBs.
Rounds 7-10 (Picks 73-120): Depth + streaming starts. RB/WR falloff accelerates.
Round 7-8: Mix of WR3/4s, RB3/4s, QB2s, TE2s.
Round 9-10: More WRs/backup RBs.
Cumulative by end Round 10: ~35-40 RBs, ~45-50 WRs, ~8-10 TEs, ~10-12 QBs.
Rounds 11-15+ (Picks 121-180+): Handcuffs, upside flyers, QB/TE streamers, DST/K late. Deep benches favor taking extra RBs/WRs.
Cumulative by end Round 15 (~180 picks): Most relevant starters gone; ~45+ RBs, ~55+ WRs drafted.
Key Positional Run Points (12-team ADP marks):
Key Positional Run Points (12-team ADP marks):
RBs:
12th ~Rd 2-3 (pick ~21),
24th ~Rd 5-6 (~60),
36th ~Rd 8-9 (~100),
48th ~Rd 12-13 (~150),
60th ~Rd 15+.
WRs:
12th ~Rd 3 (~30-36),
24th ~Rd 5-6 (~55-65),
36th ~Rd 7-8 (~85-95),
48th ~Rd 10 (~115-120),
60th ~Rd 13+.
QBs:
12th ~Rd 8-9 (~90-100),
24th ~Rd 13-15+ (streaming territory).
TEs (TEP boost):
12th ~Rd 10-11 (~115-130),
24th much later.
Draft Landscape Visualization (Markdown Table)
Draft Landscape Visualization (Markdown Table)
Approximate round where key players at each threshold are typically selected (snake flow; varies by board).
Round Picks Typical Mix (RBs/WRs/QBs/TEs) (RB WR QB TE Milestones)
1 1-12 7-8 RB / 4-5 WR RB1-8 WR1-5
2 13-24 5-6 RB / 5-6 WR / 0-1 TE RB9-12 WR6-10 QB1-2 TE1
3 25-36 4-5 RB / 5-6 WR / 1 TE/QB RB13-18 WR11-15 QB3 TE2
4 37-48 3-4 RB / 6 WR / 1-2 QB/TE RB19-22 WR16-20 QB4-5 TE3
5 49-60 3-4 RB / 5-6 WR RB23-26 WR21-25 QB6-7
6 61-72 3 RB / 5 WR / 2 QB/TE RB27-30 WR26-30 QB8-10 TE4-5
7-8 73-96 3-4 RB / 5-6 WR / 1-2 QB/TE RB31-35 WR31-38 QB11-12 TE6-8
9-10 97-120 3 RB / 5 WR / 1-2 QB/TE RB36-40 WR39-48 QB13-15 TE9-12
11+ 121+ Depth / Handcuffs / Streamers RB41+ WR49+ QB16+ TE13+
Summary Stats
Summary Stats
RB % taken: By end Rd 3 (~25-30% of relevant pool), end Rd 6 (~45-50%), end Rd 10 (~60-65%). Heavy early investment rewarded in PPR but risky due to injury.
WR % taken: By end Rd 3 (~25%), end Rd 6 (~50%), end Rd 10 (~75-80%). WRs provide more volume/safety in PPR + deep benches.
QB Scarcity: Very low early. Top 12 not until ~Rd 8+.
Wait-able in 1QB; focus on high-upside arms (Allen/Jackson early if value, then mid-round).
TE Scarcity (1.5 TEP): Elevated. Elite TEs (Bowers ~Rd 2-3, McBride ~Rd 3) go much earlier than standard PPR. Tier 2 in Rd 5-7. After that, streaming or late upside.
Key Insights for Better Than Zero (BTZ) Strategy
Key Insights for Better Than Zero (BTZ) Strategy
BTZ (Zero RB or flexible variants) thrives in PPR with deep benches by prioritizing high-floor WRs/TEs early and backfilling RBs with volume/upside later:
Go WR/TE heavy early (especially with TEP): Secure 4-5 WRs + Bowers/McBride by Rd 4-5. Leverage WR depth in PPR.
RB approach: Target committee backs or high-efficiency RBs in Rd 4-7 (e.g., around the 24th-36th RB marks). Use deep benches for handcuffs/late lottery tickets. Avoid reaching for RB3s early.
QB/TE: Draft one elite TE early if falling; wait on QB until Rd 7-9 for premium weekly upside without early opportunity cost.
Flow: In snake drafts, mid-round picks benefit from value slides. Late rounds reward RB/WR depth hunting.
Risks: Injury-prone RBs make early heavy RB risky; BTZ mitigates via diversification.
Notable ADP Shifts (Recent Weeks)
Notable ADP Shifts (Recent Weeks)
Risers: Some WRs like certain mid-tier options and rookie RBs/WRs gaining buzz in mocks. Elite TEs continuing upward due to TEP. Select QBs (e.g., mid-tier risers) moving into better ranges.
Fallers: Some veteran RBs/WRs sliding (injury or competition concerns). Check specific players like certain WRs or rookie hype that cooled.
Overall: Early mocks show stable top tier (Chase, Gibbs/Robinson, etc.) with volatility in mid-round RBs and rookie WRs. Monitor OTAs for further moves.
Use this as a guide—adapt to your league's tendencies, and always cross-reference live ADP/tools closer to your draft. Happy drafting!
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