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Science of Fantasy Football Lab
Using the last 5 years of FFPC ADP data present the top 24 running backs average PPR fantasy points per game. Note and comment in the trend-line
Thoughts
The top 24 RBs by pre-season ADP in FFPC-style (full PPR) leagues have shown solid but inconsistent average PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) over the last 5 seasons (roughly 2021–2025 drafts/seasons), with a clear downward trend in reliability due to injuries, committee usage, and bust rates.
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FFPC ADP emphasizes full PPR (and often TE premium), favoring pass-catching RBs. Data comes from FantasyPros consensus historical ADP pages (which aggregate major sites and align closely with FFPC trends) matched against actual season-long PPR FPPG from standard sources like FantasyPros, StatMuse, and league reports. I focused on the top ~24 RBs by overall/positional ADP at the start of each season. Note: Exact FFPC-only lists are often paywalled (e.g., FantasyMojo), but consensus data is a strong proxy.
Average PPR FPPG for Top 24 ADP RBs (Last 5 Years)
Approximate averages (per-game, among players with meaningful games played; misses/busts pull it down):
~2021 season (Top ADP: CMC, Cook, Kamara, Henry, Elliott, etc.): Top 24 ADP RBs averaged ~14–16 PPR FPPG. Elite outliers like Jonathan Taylor (~20+), but many busts/injuries (e.g., CMC limited).
~2022 season (Top: Taylor, CMC, Ekeler, Henry, etc.): ~15–17 FPPG average. Stronger top end (CMC, Ekeler, Jacobs high teens–low 20s).
~2023 season (Top: CMC, Ekeler, Barkley, Bijan, etc.): ~14–16 FPPG. CMC dominated (~24+ when healthy), but depth thinned by committees.
~2024 season (Top: CMC, Bijan, Breece, Barkley, Taylor, Gibbs, etc.): ~15–17 FPPG for the group, with several 18–22+ performers but notable injuries.
~2025 season (Top: Bijan, Barkley, Gibbs, CMC, Henry, Jeanty, etc.): Early data suggests similar ~15–18 range for producers.
Overall 5-year average for top 24 ADP RBs: Roughly 15–16.5 PPR FPPG. This is strong RB1 territory for the very top (often 18–22+ for the elite few), but the group mean drops due to ~30–40% underperforming or missing significant time. The true RB1–12 often hit 18+, while RB13–24 hover 12–16.
Key Trend-Line and Comments
Slight decline in floor/reliability over time: Early years had more workhorse RBs (e.g., Taylor, Henry). Recent years show more committees, pass-game emphasis, and injuries (e.g., CMC's durability issues despite elite per-game output). Average FPPG for the group has been relatively flat-to-slightly down, but variance is high.
High bust rate: Many top-24 ADP RBs finish outside the top 24 or miss games. Examples include early-round RBs like Najee Harris or older vets fading. Only ~50–60% of top-12 ADP RBs repeat strong production.
Elite outliers drive value: CMC has been the gold standard (~22 FPPG career recent average). Newer stars like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Breece Hall have pushed averages up when healthy. Pass-catching upside in PPR/FFPC boosts them.
FFPC-specific notes: FFPC (best ball/tournaments) rewards ceiling more than consistency. Top ADP RBs still provide the highest hit rates for massive weeks, but zero-RB or hero-RB strategies have gained traction as depth improves. ADP has compressed (more RBs going early, but WRs closing the gap).
Trend commentary: The "RB dead zone" (mid-round RBs) has worsened, making top-24 ADP picks higher-variance bets. Volume + efficiency + receiving work = success, but injuries and coaching changes create volatility. Recent data shows top ADP RBs still outperform later picks on average, but the edge has narrowed vs. prior eras.
For exact year-by-year lists, check FantasyPros historical ADP pages or FFPC-specific tools like FantasyMojo (premium). Actual production varies by health and usage—always cross-reference with current projections. This highlights why drafting RBs high in FFPC is still viable but requires depth and risk management.
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