Introduction to DMIC's MVP Metric

MVP Index-Chasing What Matters in Fantasy Football

Remember in the movie City Slickers when the old cowboy Curly told Mitch that the secret to life was one thing? Today, I'm here to tell you that in Fantasy Football, only three things matter. If you learn how to spot the tendencies of those three things happening, you will win more often in the fake football game. Of course, for three things to matter, you need to look at how often they are likely to happen for a particular player weekly. What are those three things? This concept isn't rocket surgery, folks; you need to spot how often a player helps, hurts, or has no significant effect on your team. That's how the MVP Index was born!

Total Points are Deceiving.

Every season, fantasy football managers are chasing points instead of volume. Any player in the NFL can have a hot couple of games to start the season, but as the late great Dennis Green once told us, "They are who we thought they were." it's essential to look at a player's performance over a more extended period than just the first two weeks of any season. Points per game can be just as deceiving, too, because 24 plus 2 is equal to 14 plus 12. Fantasy Football is a weekly game. My Weekly Values tool is excellent at showing a player's worth any given week, but how often do performance spikes cause us to win or lose a matchup? That's why even after developing one excellent weekly metric, I kept trying to find another tool that showed me a player's chance of helping me win or lose on any given week.

Three Things Matter in Fantasy Football

On any given week, a player can either help, really hurt, or have that kind of performance somewhere in between. If we figure out a way to look at those frequencies and find the right recipe to add them all together, we have another metric that can let us know a player's worth to your team. Some super-consistent guys might not have as big of a spike week to the high side, but they never give us that nasty donut hole, either. Those are the true Kings of fantasy football production and are often the type of player that makes us a league winner. The metric below has been calculated with PPR league scoring in mind. Let's look at the MVP Index All-Stars after week 2.

MVP Rank After Week 2

1. Cooper Kupp 159-Voted the WR most likely to win you a league when healthy.

2. Austin Ekeler 150- One of two superstar RBs you want on your roster in Fantasy Football.

3. Christian McCaffrey 138- The other superstar RB to build your Fantasy team around.

4. Justin Jefferson 131- Consistency at such a high level every week.

5. Derrick Henry 127- Starting to see a slight drop in volume early this season, but still a stud.

6. Davante Adams 126- The QB doesn't matter much for this guy's production.

7. Stefon Diggs 125- The best WR on one of the best passing offenses makes this guy valuable.

8. Keenan Allen 121- Old, reliable, and on a team that gives up many points and needs to pass a lot.

9. Deebo Samuel 119- An 11 to 1 edge on big versus horrible games makes him valuable.

10. Tyreek Hill 116- Lives up to his nickname often enough to be a part of many championships.

11. Jonathan Taylor 114- What team will he play for when he returns?

12. Chris Godwin 112- It may surprise many this high in the rankings, but numbers don't lie.

13. Breece Hall 111- Even stuck with a lousy QB, he has been able to perform most weeks.

14. Travis Kelce 109- The only TE rated over 85 shows his value in fantasy games.

15. Joe Mixon 108- Gets the volume needed to help your fantasy team win every week.

16. Ja'Marr Chase 108- Slow start to the 2023 season, but the cream will rise to the top.

17. James Conner 106- The sneaky value play in fantasy football again this season.

18. D'Andre Swift 104- When healthy, this guy can play great games.

19. DeAndre Hopkins 104- I'm concerned about how his numbers react to the volume passing team.

20. Josh Jacobs 100- Volume got him to this point, but the Raider's declining offense might hurt.

21. Najee Harris 100- Worried that we might have seen the best out of him already.

22. Calvin Ridley 100- I could see this number rise even more playing with a talented young QB.

23. Michael Thomas 100- Small sample size due to injuries, but his back class was even higher.

24. Nick Chubb, 99- Sad to see one of the best in the game suffer such a horrific injury.

25. Aaron Jones, 94- Still getting it done when he can stay healthy.

26. Jaylen Waddle 94- A high-volume passing game easily supports two great WRs in Fantasy.

27. Alvin Kamara 93- Only one more week until he returns and does what he does best.

28. Chris Olave 93- Another one of the young rising stars at WR but could be hindered by average

QB

29. Cee Dee Lamb 91- Showing outstanding consistency with 10 to 4 great games to bad games ratio

30. Amon Ra St. Brown 89- Another reliable WR but could lose some of his upside later this year.

31. Michael Pittman 88- The sky is the limit for this talented young WR now with a dynamic QB.

32. Kenneth Walker III 87- Held off the rookie without a problem and getting needed volume.

33. Mike Evans 87- Showing that old reliable can get it done with anyone at QB.

34. DK Metcalf 85- Part of an excellent trio of WRs in Seattle, and all will be viable in fantasy games.

35. Mark Andrews 84- The second TE to make the top 35 and the next TE at a rating of only 67.

36. Saquon Barkley 83- Gets the needed volume in rushing and passing games.

37. Tyler Lockett 82- Drafted way too low in all fantasy formats this season.

38. Dionte Johnson 82- Sad to see another talented player sidelined by injury.

39. Dalvin Cook 81- Rating has been falling fast over the past year and a half.

40. David Montgomery 80- It might shock people that he made the top 40, but numbers don't lie.

41. AJ Brown 80- Only a 7 to 3 edge in great versus awful games brings the rating down.

42. Tee Higgins 79- Showed a spike week in both directions in the season's first two weeks.

43. Amari Cooper 78- Still productive on a run-first team, but his rating could slide this year.

44. Mike Williams 77- Leaving games early has increased his awful game total.

45. Brian Robinson 73- Emerging as a Top 10 RB in the fake football game this season.

46. Marquis Brown 73- Three to one margin in great games versus awful games over the last two years.

47. Tony Pollard 72- Now the top dog, he should see his rating climb into the 80s this year.

48. Ezekiel Elliott 72- His rating will drop fast with part-time usage increasing bad game total.

49. Terry McLaurin 72- Dynamic playmaker stuck on a run-first team has hurt his fantasy value.

50. Rhamondre Stevenson 69- Has managed a spot in the top 50 despite being a low-volume guy.

Putting MVP Index to Work

The MVP Index is part of my weekly article showing the latest updates to my Weekly Values for players this season. Any player with a value over 75 should never be on your bench! Comparing the MVP index among players for lineup decisions: I am ignoring the defensive matchup if one player has an MVP Index of 10-15 points higher than his competition. The index can also be vital to finding great trading targets in Fantasy Football. If you have any questions about the MVP Index, which is being Beta-Tested this season. Just look me up on Twitter @DMICmedia. Good luck in week 3.