MVP Index Tells Us Who’s the Best Through 9 Weeks

The MVP Index is a unique way to look at Fantasy Football stats that only chase what matters. Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so year-to-date totals and even points per game can be deceiving statistics. Fantasy Football needed a weekly stat tool that only chased the performance that mattered. I see some analysts trying to grade how many times a player finished as a “Starter Level Player” (Top 12 in 12 team leagues), but that data is flawed because the spread from QB1 to QB12 on any given week can fluctuate greatly. In week one this season, the spread was 16.5 to 29.1, while in week four, it was 19.6 to 36.5. (Weeks chosen by random draw from non-Bye weeks) Not only is it a huge difference if a player finished 1st or 12th, but it’s also a vast difference from one week to the following how many points are needed to be 12th and count as a QB1 week.

My other tool, “Weekly Values,” looks at each player’s upside value in Fantasy Football. Consistency Rating looks at how many times a player hits an acceptable floor. MVP Index attempts to put those two characteristics along with the third important factor, alarming game rate, to define a player’s value to your team weekly. Let’s look at the data for just the first nine weeks of the 2023 season (MVP23 Index) and see how it compares to the larger data window used for the MVP Index on my weekly reports.

MVP Index Explained

The Fantasy Football analysts of the world have thrown so many exotic statistics at us that we aren’t sure which ones to put more weight on than the others. Air Yards, Points Over Expectation, and many more provide a solid insight into the forecast situation but don’t tell us what we need to know the most. The three things that matter most in forecasting Fantasy Football outcomes are consistency, enormous point game potential, and lousy game potential. When folks look at Fantasy Football outcomes and show that even great players fluctuate in their performance, they conclude that “Consistency doesn’t matter because the data is never consistent from one week to the next.” Those people don’t understand how to grade consistency.

When you look at Fantasy Football results, there is a median level of performance at each position. If you look at the 60% level of performance at each position, you get close to 10 points in the points per reception (PPR) scoring scheme at the RB and WR positions. I graded the TE position by that amount to allow direct comparisons for Flex starting position decisions. This median level is the first factor in the MVP Index Formula based on full games played.

In Fantasy Football, we don’t care why a player didn’t play a complete game, and we just know it hurt our chances for success whether he got injured or the coach decided to play someone else on the roster more on that given game. That’s why I use all games played when I grade a player for his lousy game potential, even if that was one offensive snap. We don’t know whether a player will play a full game when we select him for our lineup! This level is set at less than 50% of the consistency level and negatively affects a player’s MVP Index score.

When a player has a vast points game, he can often carry our whole Fantasy Football team to victory for that particular week. I grade that level to be twice as much as the consistency level to make sure that only the big-point games will count towards elevating a player’s MVP Index score. It’s no mystery that the best players in Fantasy Football have the most big points games during the season.

The most challenging decision to make in the invention of the MVP Index was deciding the correct time frame to come up with the grades for players. The current season doesn’t give us enough data points for an accurate index, so a longer time frame needs to be considered. A player’s entire career is too much data because players rise and decline in ability with experience, and age does eventually play a factor in decreasing a player's ability. I use a two-season plus the current season window, and the effectiveness of that time frame will be studied in the off-season.

MVP23 Only Index at QB

Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen leads the pack when you break down the MVP Index only to the first nine weeks of the 2023 season. Allen has hit the acceptable floor for consistency seven times, has only one terrible game, and has three games that gave your team a considerable edge this season. His consistency this season versus the broader data set from 2021-23 is also very impressive. In the second tier, Josh Hurts, and Justin Herbert are all alone when you look at this season. Herbert had seen an even more remarkable increase in MVP23 over the broader data set before he hurt his finger. Tua has also seen a massive surge in MVP this year, while Patrick Mahomes has the most significant decline among the Top 15 QBs. Joe Burrow’s struggles early in the season with his calf injury also showed a 46-point decline in the MVP Index. Lamar Jackson’s 2023 season has been subpar so far, but a few big games have made him appear more valuable.

MVP23 Only Index at RB

It also comes as no surprise that Christian McCaffrey has been the best RB this season when you look at the MVP23-only data, but what is surprising is that even though he is Top 3 in the more extensive data set, he saw an impressive increase to an even greater superstar level this season in Fantasy Football. Travis Etienne has seen a massive volume surge this year, coinciding with a mammoth increase in his MVP23 Only index. At his ADP, he is the best value at RB this season among the elite RBs in the top 10 in MVP23 Only Index. Alvin Kamara’s impact since returning from his suspension shows clearly in his data, too. Kyren Williams also saw a considerable rise in his rating before getting hurt. Rachaad White has also significantly increased from so-so to surpassing the 75-point “Must Start” level defined by his MVP23 Only Index. The volume decrease for Derrick Henry and the inefficient use of volume by Joe Mixon also show up in the MVP23 Only Index data after nine weeks.

MVP23 Only Index at WR

Tyreek Hill has been playing at a mind-blowing level for the 2023 season with a 69% level of “Great Games” (Defined as 20+ Points), which exceeds what many WRs have for their “Consistency Rating” level. (Defined as 10+ Points) Justin Jefferson, Stephon Diggs, AJ Brown, and Amon Ra St. Brown have also given their Fantasy teams a considerable advantage, which shows up clearly in the MVP23 Only Index. Dionte Johnson has given his fake football teams a boost since returning from injury with over a 40% boost to his rating. The career years of Nico Collins and Courtland Sutton also show up vividly in the MVP23 Only Index, with Collins rating up 400% and Sutton up 300%. The inconsistency of Deebo Samuels and DeAndre Hopkins shows up clearly with their massive declines in the MVP23 Only Index compared to their previous levels.

MVP23 Only Index at TE

Looking at the TE position through 9 weeks of the 2023 season, it’s evident that the number of elite players is just three. A considerable drop of 25% to the fourth-place TE, the rookie Sam LaPorta. Evan Engram has been the best value by far at the TE position with his MVP23 Only Index of TE5 compared to his ADP of TE8, representing over a 2 ½ round difference in draft position. Johnu Smith and Jake Ferguson have also seen a vast increase in their MVP23 Only Index versus the more extensive data set. Since taking over at TE for the injured Zach Ertz, Trey McBride has also seen an expected surge in value. Meanwhile, the inconsistency of George Kittle this season has dropped him to TE12.

Box and Whisker Positional Distribution of MVP 23 Changes

Takeaways

1) QB MVP23 Changes are the most compact and suggest the least year-to-year variation of all positions.

2) TE MVP 23 Changes have the highest year-to-year variation.

3) The RB has the highest MVP 23 Level. Nice to have drafted that RB.

4) TE and WR display the same upside of MVP year-to-year change, but the TE floor is way low.

5) The RBs seem to be the second safest position. +28 to -32 MVP 23 Change in the 50 percent box.