Leaders of the Pack After Week 16

by Dennis Michelsen 

@DMICmedia

 https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com

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Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. It’s important to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, with the current season weighted more heavily each week. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week 16. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose if they have a very low-point week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. The goal of the MVP Index was to combine these three outcomes into a single easy-to-understand number. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.  

MVP25 Index

The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple: we use the MVP25 Index for the 25th percentile. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season. 

Upside Index 

While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to handle outlier data to minimize its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighed more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances.

Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games

A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for the RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for the QB position. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge players and inform Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, what matters most is judging each QB against the others using the same point value. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football. 

Top 15 at QB

1. Josh Allen- Caused quite a few Fantasy Football teams to miss their Fake Super Bowl. 

2. Jalen Hurts- In a tier of his own at QB2

3. Jared Goff (+4) was a great draft value again this season 

4. Matthew Stafford (+5) From week one waiver wire to league winner

5. Joe Burrow (+5) Will injury drop his ADP next season? 

6. Dak Prescott- Dak is not the reason for the Cowboys this season

7. Brock Purdy (+4) led his Fake Football teams to the finals and could do the same thing in the real NFL

8. Drake Maye (+4) Deserves to be in the “Best QB” conversation 

9. Lamar Jackson (-1) Are we seeing the inevitable decline of a running QB at his age? 

10. Baker Mayfield (-4). Some of the dishes he is baking are no longer as delicious this season

11. Jaxson Dart (-7) Productive rookie season is ending on a low note 

12. Trevor Lawrence (+3) Finally found the right coach to get the most out of his ability

13. Bo Nix (+1) Better in real football than fake football this season 

14. Jacoby Brissett (-1) might earn a shot at starting somewhere next year

15. Justin Herbert (NEW) is playing through injuries to himself and his offensive line

Top 30 at RB

1. Christian McCaffrey- Riding volume to another fantastic fake football season 

2. De’Von Achane- Even had a solid week with Ewers at QB 

3. Bijan Robinson- Deserves some MVP votes on a weak team 

4. Jahmyr Gibbs- Three games under 10 PPR points this season versus zero last year

5. Jonathon Taylor- Should have enough cushion to hold on to the top 5 for two more weeks

6. Kyren Williams- Losing volume to the rookie, but still producing 

7. James Cook (+1) Coaching malpractice not to target this guy in the passing game

8. Josh Jacobs (-1) Performance is suffering as he plays through injuries 

9. Derrick Henry (+1) Coaching malpractice not to give him the ball with the game on the line

10. Chase Brown (+2) Closing the season strong

11. Saquon Barkley- Has not looked like the same RB this season 

12. Travis Etienne (+1) could lead the Jags and Fake Football teams to championships this year 

13. RJ Harvey (+1) Starting to see enough volume to get him to the top 10 

14. Bucky Irving (-5) Volume split after his injury is dropping him in the ratings

15. Ashton Jeanty (+5) had another week that reminded everyone why he was a top NFL pick

16. D’Andre Swift (-1) Volume split but still producing 

17. Breece Hall (-1) should be in demand as an FA RB in the offseason 

18. TreyVeon Henderson (-1) Leaving the game early cost some Fantasy Managers a title

19. Omarion Hampton (+2) should get volume again this week

20. Rico Dowdle (-2) Volume split shows the coach cares more about winning in real football

21. Javonte Williams (-2) Starting to hit the wall 

22. Ken Walker (+5) stepped up for a big game last week

23. Jaylen Warren (+2) Solid 1-2 punch with Gainwell when healthy 

24. David Montgomery (-2) lost the needed volume to be a fantasy starter

25. Quinshon Judkins (-1) Last time on this chart due to gruesome injury 

26. Sean Tucker- Goal line work keeps him viable as a deep flex

27. Tony Pollard (+1) Double-digit PPR points in 3 straight games

28. Rachad White (-5) would have dropped off the chart except for injuries 

29. Kenneth Gainwell (NEW) is Solid in the passing game, making him a great flex starter

30. Jamyr Jordan (NEW) got the volume without Marks around and performed well 

Top 35 at WR

1. Puka Nacua- The CMC of WRs in Fantasy Football

2. Ja’Marr Chase (+2) should be considered for the top pick in fantasy again next season.

3. Amon Ra St Brown (-1) had a rare bad week and then popped back on the injury list.

4. Cee Dee Lamb (-1) Every full game has been in double-digit PPR points this season.

5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+1) Ten games over 20 PPR points this year, more than his previous career total

6. Nico Collins (-1) Solid numbers on a team that likes to run first 

7. Rashee Rice- Turned out to be an awful fantasy draft pick in hindsight

8. Davante Adams- Part of the best 1-2 punch at WR in the NFL

9. AJ Brown (+1) has been Top 3 in points since telling everyone to bench him

10. Drake London (-1) was a top 5 value before injury 

11. Mike Evans- Two solid games since returning to action 

12. George Pickens (+2) should be in high demand in free agency

13. Chris Olave (+3) Riding volume towards the top 10 

14. Jameson Williams (+1) Three games over 20 PPR points, but two with zero points

15. Courtland Sutton (+2) Four straight solid games since their bye week

16. Tee Higgins (-4) Injury and poor QB play without Burrow held him back this season

17. Stefon Diggs (+2) can still have those big prime-time games

18. DJ Moore (+6) Played through injury last week and had an excellent post onside kick game

19. Zay Flowers (+8) Three excellent games since posting a 0 in week 13

20. Tetairoa McMillan (+10) Showing why he deserved his draft slot in the real NFL draft

21. Deebo Samuel (-3). It would be interesting to see what he can do with Daniels all season

22. DK Metcalf- Will sit out the Fantasy Finals due to stupidity 

23. Jaylen Waddle (+3) Bad QB play is holding him back 

24. Michael Pittman (-1). Only nine double-digit PPR point games in 15 full games

25. Justin Jefferson (-4) Hard to believe a future Hall of Famer is ranked this low

26. Terry McLaurin (-6) A full season with Daniels and Deebo next year will be interesting 

27. DeVonta Smith (+1). Low volume in the passing game, some weeks, caps his upside

28. Ladd McConkey (+4). Only four games over 15 points after hitting that mark 7 times as a rookie

29. Alec Pierce (NEW) The favorite target of a 44-year-old QB 

30. Jakobi Meyers (+1) Even volume split with teammate caps both of their values 

31. Wan Dale Robinson (+2). Nine double-digit PPR point games are a fantastic season for him

32. Emeka Egbuka (-7) has not been the same player since his injury 

33. Brian Thomas Jr (-4) Even volume split with teammate caps both of their values

34. Keenan Allen (-1) hasn’t hit double-digit PPR points since week 7

35. Jauan Jennings (NEW) The best WR on the 49ers this season, but the 3rd best receiving option

Top 15 at TE

1. Trey McBride- Even Superman has an off day   

2. George Kittle- His injury is a big concern ahead of the Fantasy Football finals. 

3. Travis Kelce- A great career can’t end like this. 

4. Brock Bowers- Imagine how good he would be in a real offense on a real team.   

5. Dallas Goedert- Three games in a row in double-digit PPR points 

6. Harold Fannin (+2) The answer to the question about who the best TE rookie will be in 25

7. Darren Waller (-1) It’s a miracle he had 7 PPR points with Ewers at QB

8. Kyle Pitts (+5) has taken over as the top receiver with London injured

9. Tyler Warren- Hasn’t been over 6 PPR points since losing his QB

10. Jake Ferguson (-3) Three bad games in last four starts

11. Mark Andrews (-1) Fewest receiving yards for a season in his career

12. David Njoku- Injury and the rise of the rookie have dropped his value 

13. Dalton Kincaid (-2). Only five games all season with double-digit PPR points

14. Dalton Schultz- Six solid games in his last eight starts

15. Hunter Henry (NEW) Paying off quite nicely in Best Ball leagues