2026 First Look at Rookie Opportunity After the Draft 

by Dennis Michelsen 

Last year, I was challenged by my podcast co-host, John Bush, to think in probabilities when it came to players taking over a new role on a team. While this primarily applies to the rookie class, the free agent moves made can also often give us insight into expectations for increased volume. Today, I will look at each team with an eye towards who is a “safe” player at their position for next season and who is likely to have competition for their volume. Let’s look at the top-down for each team using my metrics and make a few educated guesses on what teams might do in the upcoming NFL Draft. 

MVP Index

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose with a very low-point week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a common metric to compare and make Flex starting decisions all season. 

Opportunity Index

Research has shown that if the incumbent starter for a team at a skill position fails to hit an MVP Index of 80 or more at QB, RB, or WR1, the chance for that player to lose his starting position the next year increases. The target MVP Index for a WR2 is 60, and for TE it is 40. An MVP of 80 is typically top 11 at QB, top 20 at RB, and top 22 at WR. An MVP of 60 is typically top 31 at WR, and an MVP of 40 is typically top 10 at TE. The player’s likelihood of taking over the starting position is factored in along with the base value determined from last year’s incumbent starter to establish an Opportunity Index. The higher the index, the more opportunity a player has to take over that starting position this season. 

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QB Position

Team Player Opp Index  (80 OI = 100% Chance of Being QB 1)

LV Fernando Mendoza 39 48%

AZ Carson Beck 10 12.5%

PIT Drew Allar 3

LAR Ty Simpson 0

It comes as no surprise that Fernando Mendoza, the first player taken in the NFL Draft this year, leads the way. The surprises start at QB2 in Opportunity Index, with Carson Beck having a small chance to be the starter in Arizona if Jacoby Brissett holds out. Drew Allar is a long shot for Pittsburgh, with that chance increasing if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t sign with the club. Ty Simpson won’t take over as the starter with the Rams unless Matthew Stafford suffers an injury. Right now, I wouldn’t be bullish on the value of any of this year’s rookies in Redraft or Best Ball leagues, even in a Superflex format. 

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RB Position

Team Player Opp Index (80 OI = 100% RB 1)

AZ Jeremiah Love 38 47.5%

SEA Jadarian Price 27 33.75%

WSH Kaytron Allen 17 21%

MIN Demond Claiborne 14 17%

TN Nicholas Singleton 11 13%

KC Emmett Johnson 4

LV Mike Washington Jr 1

PIT Eli Heidenreich 1

NE Jam Miller 1

BAL Adam Randall 0

DEN Jonah Coleman 0

IND Seth McGowan 0

SF Kaelon Block 0

Once again, it should come as no surprise that the 3rd pick in this year’s NFL Draft is at the top of the Opportunity Index at the RB position, with Jeremiah Love likely to take over the starting spot in Arizona even with a crowded RB Room. Jadarian Price is the likely starter in week one for defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle. Three value guys in Dynasty Rookie drafts and late round value guys in Redraft and Best Ball will be Kaytron Allen in Washington, Demond Claiborne in Minnesota, and Nicholas Singleton in Tennessee. The rest of the players listed above have solid handcuff value behind obvious veteran starters. 

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WR1 Position

Team Player Opp Index (80 OI = 100% Chance WR1)

CLE KC Concepcion 56 70%

MIA Chris Bell 48 60%

CLE Denzel Boston 24 30%

MIA Caleb Douglas 16 20%

LV Malik Benson 12 15%

TN Carnell Tate 5

IND Deion Burks 3

WSH Antonio Williams 3

PHL Makai Lemon 3

PIT Germie Benard 2

BUF Skyler Bell 2

CAR Chris Brazell 2

AZ Reggie Virgil 2

The Opportunity Index is much higher for Cleveland’s KC Concepcion than it was in my initial rookie chart, which had him as my WR6 in this class. The starting spot is wide open with the Browns, and Denzel Boston, the second WR they selected in the draft, has a solid shot too. Chris Bell has a clear path to be the top WR for Miami. How effective either passing game might be is a question that could limit the upside of all three players. My top 3 rookie WRs pre-draft did not get the best landing spots. Makai Lemon’s value was based on an expected trade of AJ Brown, but DeVonta Smith is tough competition for WR1 with Philadelphia. Carnell Tate has a great chance to take over the top spot with Tennessee, but they also added Wan’Dale Robinson as a free agent. Jordan Tyson is clearly behind Chris Olave in New Orleans. Caleb Douglas in Miami and Malik Benson are two other rookie WRs with a clear path to WR1 on their own teams. 

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WR2 Position 

Team Player Opp Index (60 OI = 100% WR2)

MIA Chris Bell 54 90%

WSH Antonio Williams 54 90%

TN Carnell Tate 52 86%

CLE KC Concepcion 48 80%

SF De'Zhaun Stribling 39 65%

NO Jordan Tyson 39 65%

BAL Ja' Kobi Lane 36 60%

CLE Denzel Boston 36 60%

MIA Caleb Douglas 36 60%

NYJ Omar Cooper 34 56%

PHL Makai Lemon 29 48%

CAR Chris Brazell 28 46%

NYG Malachi Fields 24 40%

LV Malik Benson 24 40%

ATL Zachariah Branch 18 30%

BAL Elijah Sarratt 12 20%

SEA Emmanuel Henderson 9 15%

KC Cyrus Allen 9 15%

BUF Skyler Bell 6

AZ Reggie Virgil 6

PIT Germie Benard 5

IND Deoin Burks 5

NO Bryce Lance 4

LAC Brenen Thompson 2

TB Ted Hurst 1

LAR CJ Daniels 0

The Opportunity Index suggests that even if Chris Bell fails to secure the WR1 spot with Miami, he has a high probability of fitting well in that WR2 spot. Antonio Williams in Washington should be behind veteran Terry McLaurin for the WR1 spot, but he has very little competition for WR2 on the Commanders. Carnell Tate and KC Concepcion should also do no worse than WR2 on their teams. Second-round pick De’Zhaun Stribling has great upside potential with San Francisco, and if anything happened to veteran free agent Mike Evans, his value would increase even more. Jordan Tyson is in a similar situation in New Orleans. Baltimore selected Ja’Kobi Lane in the third round, and he has interesting upside potential. The New York Jets spent a first-round pick on Omar Cooper, and Carolina spent a third-round pick on Chris Brazel,l and they are both intriguing players late in Best Ball and Redraft this season. The data above shows that the field is crowded at WR2 this year. 

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TE Position 

Team Player Opp Index (40 OI = 100%)

NYJ Kenyon Sadiq 28 70%

DEN Justin Joly 16 40%

BAL Matthew Hibner 8 20%

CIN Jack Endries 8 20%

PHI        Eli Stowers       0

NO Oscar Delp 0

NE Eli Reardon 0

LAR Max Clare 0

Kenyan Sadiq, drafted at pick 1.6 showed just how much the New York Jets think about his potential to be a big weapon in their offense. The only concern is whether the Jets' offense will be that good. Justin Joly is a 5th-round pick whose Opportunity Index is high enough to get my attention for Dynasty Rookie drafts, but I will play the watch-and-see game for Best Ball and Redraft this year. Matthew Hibner and Jack Endries are two other TEs with interesting landing positions, but they are also wait-and-see types for this season. Oscar Delp in New Orleans is another interesting late-round Dynasty rookie draft pick, along with Eli Reardon in New England and Max Klare with the Rams. Put all three TEs on your waiver wire radar in Redraft to start the season. 

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Conclusion

The Opportunity Index factors in draft capital and roster weakness in its calculation,s and this concept has found late-round gems in Redraft and Best Ball over the last several seasons. While it’s difficult to grade players based on talent, we can use a scientific method to calculate that player’s Opportunity. It is a huge jump from the college game to the pros, and it sometimes helps players develop by allowing them to start early in their careers. The data shown above will evolve during the draft process as the depth charts become clearer during training camp and leading up to week one.