Science of Fantasy Football Lab
"LR BUSH FIGURE" Analysis (2014–2025)
This table shows the average of the sum of LR BUSH FIGURE (likely a League-Relative BUST or Bushnell-type regression residual/performance index) for top-25% QBs by age group.
Positive values = outperforming expectations (adjusted for era, usage, etc.); negative = underperforming.
Overall Stats (2014–2025)
Age Group
Mean
Std Dev
CV (%)
Trend (Recent)
Interpretation
37+
+0.091
0.088
97%
Stable/declining slightly
Strongest over-performers
33-36
+0.045
0.082
182%
Volatile but positive
Solid veterans
21-23
+0.039
0.082
211%
Highly variable
Boom/bust young guns
27-29
+0.019
0.062
321%
Moderately positive
Prime consistency
30-32
+0.006
0.053
843%
Near neutral
Reliable but not elite
24-26
-0.002
0.040
Very high
Flat/negative recently
Underperforming relative to hype
Key Trends
Veterans (33+) consistently show the highest positive LR BUSH FIGURE — they outperform expectations more reliably than younger groups. The 37+ group stands out with the best mean and relatively lower volatility.
Prime age (27–32) is near neutral to mildly positive — solid but not the biggest over-performers.
Young QBs (21–26) show high variance and have trended neutral-to-negative in recent years. They carry the highest “bust risk” relative to draft cost/expectations.
Recent years (2022–2025): The gap narrows, but veterans still edge out. 2025 shows 30–32 and 21–23 bouncing back while 24–26 and 27–29 dip.
This LR BUSH FIGURE metric complements your earlier top 25% raw points data: veterans don’t always lead in raw fantasy points, but they beat expectations more consistently (lower bust rate).
2026 Implications for Top 20 QB ADP
Combining this with your previous age/experience tables:
Best ADP Bargains (High LR BUSH + Prime/Stable Windows):
Veteran over-performers (33+): Baker Mayfield (31, ADP ~20), Jared Goff (32, ADP ~16), Dak Prescott (33, ADP ~8 — borderline). These align with the strongest positive residuals.
Prime-age value (27–32): Jalen Hurts (28), Justin Herbert (28), Trevor Lawrence (27), Jordan Love (28), Brock Purdy (27). Low bust risk + solid residuals.
Avoid/High Risk: Jayden Daniels (26), Caleb Williams (25), Drake Maye (24), Bo Nix (26) — the 24–26 group has shown the weakest relative performance lately despite hype.
Draft Recommendation for Your 20-Round PPR League:
Target 27–32 year olds with strong experience (R4–R8) in Rounds 4–8 for your QB1.
Late-round veteran (33+) as a high-floor streamer/backup.
This approach minimizes the high overall QB variation you identified while maximizing the age/experience/LR BUSH edges.
The data paints a clear picture: experience and veteran age beat youth for reliable over-performance. Want me to integrate this into a full mock draft or compare specific players?