QB AGE vs Bush LR Figures 

"LR BUSH FIGURE" Analysis (2014–2025)

This table shows the average of the sum of LR BUSH FIGURE (likely a League-Relative BUST or Bushnell-type regression residual/performance index) for top-25% QBs by age group.

Positive values = outperforming expectations (adjusted for era, usage, etc.); negative = underperforming.

Overall Stats (2014–2025)

Age Group

Mean

Std Dev

CV (%)

Trend (Recent)

Interpretation

37+

+0.091

0.088

97%

Stable/declining slightly

Strongest over-performers

33-36

+0.045

0.082

182%

Volatile but positive

Solid veterans

21-23

+0.039

0.082

211%

Highly variable

Boom/bust young guns

27-29

+0.019

0.062

321%

Moderately positive

Prime consistency

30-32

+0.006

0.053

843%

Near neutral

Reliable but not elite

24-26

-0.002

0.040

Very high

Flat/negative recently

Underperforming relative to hype

Key Trends

• Veterans (33+) consistently show the highest positive LR BUSH FIGURE — they outperform expectations more reliably than younger groups. The 37+ group stands out with the best mean and relatively lower volatility.

• Prime age (27–32) is near neutral to mildly positive — solid but not the biggest over-performers.

• Young QBs (21–26) show high variance and have trended neutral-to-negative in recent years. They carry the highest “bust risk” relative to draft cost/expectations.

• Recent years (2022–2025): The gap narrows, but veterans still edge out. 2025 shows 30–32 and 21–23 bouncing back while 24–26 and 27–29 dip.

This LR BUSH FIGURE metric complements your earlier top 25% raw points data: veterans don’t always lead in raw fantasy points, but they beat expectations more consistently (lower bust rate).

2026 Implications for Top 20 QB ADP

Combining this with your previous age/experience tables:

Best ADP Bargains (High LR BUSH + Prime/Stable Windows):

• Veteran over-performers (33+): Baker Mayfield (31, ADP ~20), Jared Goff (32, ADP ~16), Dak Prescott (33, ADP ~8 — borderline). These align with the strongest positive residuals.

• Prime-age value (27–32): Jalen Hurts (28), Justin Herbert (28), Trevor Lawrence (27), Jordan Love (28), Brock Purdy (27). Low bust risk + solid residuals.

• Avoid/High Risk: Jayden Daniels (26), Caleb Williams (25), Drake Maye (24), Bo Nix (26) — the 24–26 group has shown the weakest relative performance lately despite hype.

Draft Recommendation for Your 20-Round PPR League:

• Target 27–32 year olds with strong experience (R4–R8) in Rounds 4–8 for your QB1.

• Late-round veteran (33+) as a high-floor streamer/backup.

• This approach minimizes the high overall QB variation you identified while maximizing the age/experience/LR BUSH edges.

The data paints a clear picture: experience and veteran age beat youth for reliable over-performance. Want me to integrate this into a full mock draft or compare specific players?