Adapt or Die the Superflex Edition

BY Dennis Michelsen @DMICmedia

Earlier this week, I presented my updated version of “Better Than Zero,” an adaptive style of drafting your team in Fantasy Football. While this strategy was built to beat 1QB redraft leagues at FFPC, the same theory can be applied to every Fantasy Football format. There are only a few twists when it comes to applying this concept to Superflex drafts. Let’s explore how to gain an advantage in Superflex leagues by applying an adaptive drafting style. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge score of weak points. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season.

Understand Your Scoring Rules

The most important thing you can do before any draft is to understand the rules in your league. There can be a huge difference in the scoring rules from one league to another, and that means your rankings of player potential need to adapt to those different rules. The advice I am giving today is based on PPR scoring with a ½-point premium for TEs in 1QB leagues found on websites like FFPC. If your rules are vastly different, then your drafting approach at each position, and the value you place on players, needs to adapt. Today I won’t be telling you WHO to draft but rather HOW to approach a draft. 

Best QBs are a Huge Advantage

The biggest difference in an adaptive style draft plan in Superflex than 1QB is how you handle those super elite QBs. This year in 1QB drafts, I passed on Josh Allen of the Bills in each of my 10 drafts. It’s not that I think he is going to have a bad season, although he does occasionally have a bad week. It’s because of the RB or WR I must pass on to draft Josh Allen that early. 

In Superflex leagues, a player like Josh Allen is a huge advantage. If I can build a solid 1-2 punch at QB, I will gain an advantage in each weekly matchup, and Allen’s best games over the last 2 seasons score a 100% score versus the competition. But just like any other format, you don’t want the 7th best QB if you can have the 1st or 2nd best at another position. Don’t let yourself get caught up in a first-round QB round if you have a late draft slot. But if you can secure Josh Allen or Drake Maye in the first round, that will give you an edge. 

Layering Your QB Picks

Since we are applying an adaptive style in each draft, each team we draft should be somewhat unique depending on the starting draft slot. But the usual game plan is to layer my QB draft picks. The ADP in FFPC Superflex drafts is a great guide to know when you need to have your top 2 QBs drafted. By the end of round 2, there will typically be 8 QBs drafted, and by the end of round four you can expect 16 QBs to be gone in the typical draft.

I feel rather secure at QB if I have drafted my top 2 QBs by the end of round four. In 1QB drafts, I often wait and draft QBs in back-to-back rounds, and that same strategy can work great at certain draft slots and in some leagues too. I always track how many players have gone at each position in ANY draft, but in Superflex it’s vitally important to track how many QBs are gone and IF any of your late-round value QBs are still available. 

If I leave round four with 2QBS and 1 solid player at either RB or WR, then I am feeling good about the start of my draft. Understanding where your favorite QB targets are being drafted according to ADP is even more important in Superflex leagues than in 1QB because they can go so fast in drafts. I build this type of chart before my draft starts. 

Third QB Advantage

I usually try to draft four QBs in a Superflex draft, but like any adaptive draft style, that number can vary from team to team. In 1QB leagues, my roster consists of 1-3 QBs, and in Superflex the QB range is always 3-5. The advantage of a 3rd QB is obvious for Bye weeks but also pays off in an injury situation. In most drafts, I leave with 3 QBs in Superflex. 

Interestingly, when injuries occur at other positions, I will often cover my starting QBs with their backup for insurance late in the season, boosting my QB number by 1-2 before the fantasy football playoffs. Some QBs, like Kyler Murray, whom I usually avoid in 1QB leagues, I might consider more often as my QB3 in Superflex leagues. Leaning into the upside after your top 2 QBs makes sense. 

Ambiguous QB Situations

Like all adaptive drafting game plans, there are no absolutes, but I don’t want to get stuck relying on a veteran QB who might lose his job late to a rookie, or in a situation where two QBs are competing for that starting spot. I would rather roster Aaron Rodgers or Geno Smith as my QB3 rather than Tua or Penix in Atlanta. Kirk Cousins could provide some early value this season IF he retains that starting role. 

However, unless there is an injury to your top 2 QBs, you won’t consider starting Cousins until Bye weeks, and by then he might be replaced with Fernando Mendoza. I also would rather rely on a guy with a proven track record for my third QB than someone taking over the starting role by default on a poor offense. That means passing on Malik Willis for a more reliable Tyler Shough or Sam Darnold as my QB3. 

Compare 1QB and Superflex ADP for Other Positions.

Due to the lower volume of Superflex leagues, you can sometimes find hidden gems in Superflex ADP versus the rising stars in 1QB ADP. This can give you a solid advantage by taking an RB or WR that has been rising in the 1QB ADP ranks but is still valued lower in Superflex leagues. Right now, Jonathon Brooks has risen to round 6 in 1QB leagues but is lagging way behind in Superflex. 

Typically, the difference in ADP for RBs is about 10-20 spots, and right now Brooks has a 40-spot difference in ADP from 1QB to Superflex. Sometimes we even see some QBs that are better values in Superflex leagues than in 1QB leagues because of the lag in ADP response with the lower volume of players in Superflex leagues. Knowing these differences can let you draft those players a round earlier than their Superflex ADP and still have lots of value to the upside. 

Superflex Better Than Zero in Action

My first two Superflex league drafts were very different. In one league I was drafting in the sixth slot, and Drake Maye was still available. In another Superflex league, drafting from the tenth slot, I passed on QBs in the first round and took Amon-Ra St Brown instead. Only 3 QBs went in the first round in that draft, but I liked the elite value at WR better, knowing I could get a solid QB in the second round with so few spots between my picks. Drafting on the turn in a Superflex league is even trickier than in 1QB because those QB runs can get lengthy. Don’t just join the run; follow the value. Both leagues are a great example of my layering approach to the QB position in Superflex leagues. 

Team One Draft Slot Six 

1st Drake Maye QB

2nd Chase Brown RB

3rd AJ Brown WR

4th Patrick Mahomes QB

Leaning either D’Andre Swift or Josh Jacobs at RB, George Pickens at WR, or a QB like Jared Goff, Bo Nix, or Baker Mayfield with my 5th-round pick. This team is off to a solid start, and if I don’t land a quality 3rd QB, I can protect my Mahomes pick by drafting Justin Fields in the last round as my 3rd or 4th QB. This is a solid start to my draft, which gives me a chance to move in any direction that the value leads me, and I am pleased to have my starters all from solid offenses. 

Team Two Draft Slot Ten

1st Amon Ra St Brown WR

2nd Caleb Williams QB

3rd Kenneth Walker RB

4th Jared Goff QB

5th D’Andre Swift RB

6th Garret Wilson WR

7th Rome Odunze WR

8th Rhamondre Stevenson RB

9th RJ Harvey RB

Leaning toward Rachad White as my 5th RB in the 10th round, or either Chris Godwin, Michael Pittman, Makai Lemon, or Quentin Johnson as my 4th WR. This team has solid balance and a double QB/WR stack with my starting QBs. I won’t go out of my way to secure stacks in any format, but in Best Ball and Superflex I like those quality stacks even more. Once again, all my starters come from solid offensive teams. 

Conclusion

Each draft in any format of Fantasy Football will show uniqueness depending on your draft slot and where the value appears. Don’t wait too long at QB in Superflex because it’s easier to patch and fill your depth at other positions than QB. 

The goal is to have your starting QBs by the end of round four, but there is solid value to find as late as the 5th round. One QB I am targeting as my QB3 this season is Cam Ward because I like to lean into the upside with my third QB pick. If I invest in Kyler Murray as my QB3, I will probably take a last-round pick of JJ McCarthy to make sure I have a starter all season. 

Good luck in your drafts this season!

The Science of Superflex: Building a Data-Driven Environment Index for Quarterbacks.

NOTE: This article can add to your understanding of SF Drafting