2026 Fantasy Football Lab is Open for Business
Almost every week on the Science of Fantasy Football podcast, the Professor and I mention how our background in handicapping horse races has helped us forecast fantasy football. When a harness race reaches the quarter-mile marker, I have a good idea whether my bet has a chance to cash, even though three-quarters of the race hasn’t been run yet. It’s hard to believe that we have reached the quarter pole in the Fantasy Football season. Let’s look at my forecasts for the top 150 players based on the late-August drafts at FFPC and think ahead to the rest of the season.
Every week in fantasy football, a player’s stats can have three possible outcomes. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose with a very low-scoring week. They can keep your team in contention by performing above the historic median output. The MVP Index aimed to combine these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a comparable score for making Flex starting decisions all season. Target MVP is the expected MVP Rating by ADP. MVP26 is each player's current MVP index based only on the first four weeks of this season.
Trey McBride ADP 16.4 (Target MVP 90) MVP Forecast 105 to 125 (MVP26 150)
Jeremiah Love ADP 30.6 (Target MVP 100) MVP Forecast 80 to 120 (MVP26 75)
Marvin Harrison Jr ADP 69.4 (Target MVP 60) MVP Forecast 80 to 105 (MVP26 -50)
Michael Wilson ADP 93.5 (Target MVP 45) MVP Forecast 50 to 75 (MVP26 75)
Tyler Allgaier ADP 131.8 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 60 (MVP26 -25)
Conclusion: The only obvious miss in my forecasts was Marvin Harrison. Hard to believe, looking back, that so many Fantasy Football analysts warned you about Trey McBride.
Bijan Robinson ADP 2 (Target MVP 140) MVP Forecast 130 to 160 (MVP26 175)
Drake London ADP 22.6 (Target MVP 110) MVP Forecast 95 to 120 (MVP26 75)
Kyle Pitts ADP 60.2 (Target MVP 60) MVP Forecast 45 to 60 (MVP26 -75)
Conclusion: The Falcons have been a much different offense since Michael Penix took over at QB. Bijan was immune to the early poor QB play, but Drake London is starting to live up to expectations. Pitts has been awful, but my forecast was lower than consensus, so I didn't draft any new shares.
Derrick Henry ADP 21 (Target MVP 100) MVP Forecast 100 to 140 (MVP26 150)
Zay Flowers ADP 34.3 (Target MVP 90) MVP Forecast 95 to 120 (MVP26 167)
Lamar Jackson ADP 66.8 (Target MVP 130) MVP Forecast 95 to 135 (MVP26 100)
Mark Andrews ADP 103.3 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 90 (MVP26 50)
Conclusion: After the first 4 weeks, every Ravens forecast I made has been a hit. Father Time isn’t even close to catching up with The King.
James Cook ADP 10.2 (Target MVP 120) MVP Forecast 120 to 140 (MVP26 100)
Josh Allen ADP 34.5 (Target MVP 140) MVP Forecast 120 to 140 (MVP26 125)
DJ Moore ADP 48.7 (Target MVP 80) MVP Forecast 85 to 120 (MVP26 67)
Dalton Kincaid ADP 88.9 (Target MVP 30) MVP Forecast 55 to 100 (MVP26 25)
Khalil Shakir ADP 140.1 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 65 to 85 (MVP26 0)
Conclusion: Most of the Bills’ offense has been underperforming so far in Fantasy Football. It’s not that anyone has been bad; the expectations were just higher.
Tetairoa McMillan ADP 44.4 (Target MVP 80) MVP Forecast 80 to 105 (MVP26 75)
Jonathan Brooks ADP 65.7 (Target MVP 65) MVP Forecast 50 to 100 (INJURED)
Chubba Hubbard ADP 100.3 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 65 to 100 (MVP26 150)
Jalen Coker ADP 133 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 30 to 75 (MVP26 67)
Conclusion: QB Bryce Young has been great this season, posting an MVP26 of 125 after the first four games despite having an ADP outside of the Top 300. Brooks's injury has solidified Chubba Hubbard as a Top 10 RB.
Colston Loveland ADP 23.4 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 75 to 115 (MVP26 -25)
D’Andre Swift ADP 45 (Target MVP 80) MVP Forecast 95 to 120 (MVP26 100)
Luther Burdon ADP 49.3 (Target MVP 75) MVP Forecast 85 to 120 (MVP26 50)
Rome Odunze ADP 57.1 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 85 to 115 (MVP26 25)
Caleb Williams ADP 102.7 (Target MVP 95) MVP Forecast 100 to 125 (MVP26 50)
Kyle Monangai ADP 107.1 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 45 to 90 (MVP26 75)
Conclusion: The Bears are 3-1 despite their passing offense not reaching levels expected before the season. When Caleb Williams returns from injury, I expect that to change, but for now the forecasts were all too generous except for Swift and Monangai, who have lived up to expectations.
Ja’Marr Chase ADP 3,1 (Target MVP 150) MVP Forecast 130 to 145 (MVP26 75)
Chase Brown ADP 13.2 (Target MVP 115) MVP Forecast 110 to 135 (MVP26 75)
Tee Higgins ADP 42.2 (Target MVP 80) MVP Forecast 85 to 115 (MVP26 125)
Joe Burrow ADP 82.1 (Target MVP 120) MVP Forecast 125 to 130 (MVP26 125)
Conclusion: Injuries have slowed down Ja’Marr Chase so far. Chase Brown is the only other Bengal who hasn’t lived up to my lofty forecasts for each part of this offense.
Quinshon Judkins ADP 50.4 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 80 to 120 (MVP26 50)
Harold Fannin ADP 63.3 (Target MVP 55) MVP Forecast 60 to 80 (MVP26 75)
KC Concepcion ADP 105.9 (Target MVP 30) MVP Forecast 60 to 95 (MVP26 0)
Denzel Boston ADP 144.4 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 80 (MVP26 100)
Dylan Sampson ADP 149 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 65 to 85 (INJURED)
Conclusion: Judkins has failed to live up to his forecast, but Fannin was right on the money. I wasn’t sure which rookie WRs would take over as their top pass catcher, but I ranked both higher than consensus. After 4 weeks, Boston has been the best of the two.
Cee Dee Lamb ADP 14.5 (Target MVP 115) MVP Forecast 115 to 140 (MVP26 175)
George Pickens ADP 27.5 (Target MVP 95) MVP Forecast 110 to 130 (MVP26 50)
Javonte Williams ADP 35.2 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 85 to 110 (MVP26 125)
Jake Ferguson ADP 101.8 (Target MVP 25) MVP Forecast 40 to 55 (MVP 0)
Dak Prescott ADP 113.7 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 90 to 115 (MVP26 125)
Conclusion: The Cowboys’ defense is worse than expected, which should lead to great things for their offensive pieces in Fantasy Football. I was higher than consensus on Dak and below consensus on Pickens, and both of those forecasts look good after four weeks.
Jaylen Waddle ADP 40.9 (Target MVP 80) MVP Forecast 90 to 110 (MVP26 50)
RJ Harvey ADP 87 (Target MVP 40) MVP Forecast 90 to 110 (MVP26 67)
Courtland Sutton ADP 87.2 (Target MVP 50) MVP Forecast 75 to 100 (MVP26 -50)
JK Dobbins ADP 90.8 (Target MVP 35) MVP Forecast 75 to 100 (MVP26 -50)
Jonah Coleman ADP 126 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 80 (MVP26 0 INJURED)
Bo Nix ADP 144.6 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 90 to 110 (MVP26 25)
Conclusion: Bo Nix has not lived up to expectations, and that has also led to both WRs failing to hit their forecasts. My data said RJ Harvey would emerge as the best RB until the rookie was ready, and that forecast was accurate.
Jahmyr Gibbs ADP 1 (Target MVP 150) MVP Forecast 120 to 140 (MVP26 175)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ADP 7.3 (Target MVP 125) MVP Forecast 125 to 145 (MVP26 150)
Jameson Williams ADP 59.8 (Target MVP 65) MVP Forecast 75 to 105 (MVP26 25)
Sam LaPorta ADP 66.2 (Target MVP 50) MVP Forecast 55 to 75 (MVP26 75)
Jared Goff ADP 150 (Target MVP 60) MVP Forecast 85 to 110 (MVP26 125)
Conclusion: I avoided Jameson Williams in drafts because LaPorta was healthy and Jameson’s splits with LaPorta on the field were poor. The rest of this offense has been fantastic, and with the Lions’ defense worse than expected, they will need to score 40 every week to win.
Josh Jacobs ADP 40,4 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 105 to 135 (SUSPENDED)
Christian Watson ADP 56.8 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 80 to 110 (MVP26 125)
Tucker Kraft ADP 61.8 (Target MVP 55) MVP Forecast 60 to 100 (MVP26 0)
Jayden Reed ADP 102.5 (Target MVP 35) MVP Forecast 65 to 90 (MVP26 -50 INJURED)
Mathew Golden ADP 112 (Target MVP 25) MVP Forecast 50 to 85 (MVP26 100)
MarShawn Lloyd ADP 123.9 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 35 to 75 (MVP26 -50)
Conclusion: Without Jacobs, the Packers’ rushing game has been awful. Kraft got off to a slow start but is getting into shape. I ranked Watson and Golden higher than consensus, and they are both off to a great start.
Nico Collins ADP 24.6 (Target MVP 105) MVP Forecast 105 to 120 (MVP26 200)
Davis Montgomery ADP 47 (Target MVP 75) MVP Forecast 90 to 125 (MVP26 0)
Woody Marks ADP 130.1 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 60 to 85 (MVP26 0)
Dalton Schultz ADP 147.3 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 45 to 65 (MVP26 25)
Conclusion: Collins has been even better than expected, but the rest of this offense has underperformed since a solid Week 1. The condition of the offensive line has me concerned about Montgomery and Marks going forward.
Jonathon Taylor ADP 8.7 (Target MVP 125) MVP Forecast 110 to 135 (MVP26 150)
Tyler Warren ADP 33.5 (Target MVP 60) MVP Forecast 60 to 100 (MVP26 75)
Josh Downs ADP 87.3 (Target MVP 50) MVP Forecast 65 to 80 (MVP26 25)
Alec Pierce ADP 108.8 (Target MVP 30) MVP Forecast 60 to 80 INJURED
Conclusion: JT has been Superman despite the lousy QB play. Concerns about Daniel Jones had me steer clear of the WRs. Warren has lived up to expectations.
Bhayshul Tuten ADP 50.3 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 75 to 100 (MVP26 75)
Parker Washington ADP 59.5 (Target MVP 65) MVP Forecast 75 to 95 (MVP26 50)
Brian Thomas ADP 75.3 (Target MVP 40) MVP Forecast 75 to 120 (MVP26 -25)
Trevor Lawrence ADP 112.3 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 100 to 120 (MVP26 50)
Chris Rodriguez ADP 120.4 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 45 to 65 (MVP26 -50)
Jakobi Meyers ADP 122 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 70 to 95 (MVP26 25)
Brenton Strange ADP 127.2 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 85 (MVP26 25)
Conclusion: I forecast Brian Thomas to post a season somewhere between his great rookie season and his bad sophomore season, but so far he's been worse than last year. Tuten is right on his forecast numbers, but QB Trevor Lawrence has been a disappointment.
Kenneth Walker ADP 15,4 (Target MVP 110) MVP Forecast 100 to 120 (MVP26 200)
Rashee Rice ADP 28.5 (Target MVP 95) MVP Forecast 105 to 135 (MVP26 25)
Travis Kelce ADP 82.5 (Target MVP 35) MVP Forecast 55 to 95 (MVP26 75)
Xavier Worthy ADP 129 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 50 to 80 (MVP26 0)
Patrick Mahomes ADP 142.9 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 110 to 140 (MVP26 125)
Conclusion: Eric Bienemy's return as OC has dramatically improved this offense, as expected. Walker has been even better than expected, with Kelce and Mahomes closer to their 2022 production than 2025 after four weeks. Pass catchers have dealt with injuries.
Brock Bowers ADP 7.7 (Target MVP 110) MVP Forecast 95 to 125 (MVP26 200)
Ashton Jeanty ADP 13.5 (Target MVP 110) MVP Forecast 95 to 125 (MVP26 125)
Mike Washington ADP 140.2 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 35 to 80 (MVP26 -50)
Conclusion: Bowers has been as great as expected, and Jeanty is performing towards the top end of my forecast range.
Omarion Hampton ADP 17.2 (Target MVP 105) MVP Forecast 100 to 125 (MVP26 50)
Ladd McConkey ADP 37.7 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 90 to 110 (MVP26 67)
Quentin Johnson ADP 96.9 (Target MVP 40) MVP Forecast 65 to 85 (MVP26 -50)
Justin Herbert ADP 111 (Target MVP 90) MVP Forecast 95 to 120 (MVP26 0)
Keaton Mitchell ADP 117.9 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 50 to 85 (MVP26 0)
Conclusion: The only Charger I rated slightly higher than consensus was Hampton, but he is off to a bad start. I was concerned about the rest of the offensive parts and pieces because I didn’t think McDaniel deserved being called an “Offensive Genius,” and so far, that concern was warranted.
Puka Nacua ADP 4.5 (Target MVP 140) MVP Forecast 130 to 150 (MVP26 150)
Kyren Williams ADP 33.2 (Target MVP 90) MVP Forecast 100 to 140 (MVP26 150)
Davante Adams ADP 56.7 (Target MVP 75) MVP Forecast 90 to 115 (MVP26 100)
Blake Corum ADP 81.9 (Target MVP 45) MVP Forecast 55 to 95 (MVP26 -25)
Terrance Ferguson ADP 130.9 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 35 to 50 (MVP26 -33)
Matthew Stafford ADP 146.2 (Target MVP 65) MVP Forecast 90 to 120 (MVP26 50)
Conclusion: Puka and Kyren will once again lead Fantasy Football teams to championships if they stay healthy and Puka stays out of trouble. Adams has underperformed in games when Nacua has played, but the TE injuries might get him on the field more often.
De’Von Achane ADP 16 (Target MVP 105) MVP Forecast 120 to 135 (MVP26 33 INJURED)
Conclusion: The Dolphins offense has been a mess as expected, and Achane got hurt before we could see what his complete resume would have looked like this season.
Justin Jefferson ADP 13.6 (Target MVP 120) MVP Forecast 115 to 140 (MVP26 67)
Jordan Mason ADP 90.8 (Target MVP 30) MVP Forecast 55 to 90 (MVP26 INJURED)
Jordan Addison ADP 113.9 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 55 to 85 (MVP26 0)
Aaron Jones ADP 116.7 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 50 to 95 (MVP26 100)
TJ Hockenson ADP 149.5 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 55 to 100 (MVP26 (50)
Conclusion: Jefferson is dealing with an injury that could limit his production or cause him to miss some games. For Fantasy Football purposes, this offense looked better without Kyler Murray.
AJ Brown ADP 20.5 (Target MVP 115) MVP Forecast 115 to 140 (MVP26 INJURED)
TreVeyon Henderson ADP 59.5 (Target MVP 65) MVP Forecast 75 to 120 (MVP26 0)
Rhamondre Stevenson ADP 71 (Target MVP 60) MVP Forecast 75 to 100 (MVP26 25)
Drake Maye ADP 74.4 (Target MVP 125) MVP Forecast 120 to 140 (MVP26 25)
Romeo Doubs ADP 131.8 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 75 (MVP26 50)
Hunter Henry ADP (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 60 (MVP26 0)
Conclusion: Drake Maye finally woke up in week four after an awful start to the season. AJ Brown getting hurt early in the season didn't help. We will need to revisit these forecasts after Brown returns and see if Maye can string together some solid games.
Chris Olave ADP 27.1 (Target MVP 100) MVP Forecast 110 to 130 (MVP26 150)
Travis Etienne ADP 41.9 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 90 to 115 (MVP26 33 INJURED)
Juwan Johnson ADP 113.8 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 45 to 60 (MVP26 125)
Jordan Tyson ADP 113.9 (Target MVP 25) MVP Forecast 50 to 95 (MVP26 INJURED)
Conclusion: Olave and Johnson will be part of many winning Fantasy Football teams this season. Tyler Shough has looked solid, and when they get Etienne and Tyson back, this offense should get even better.
Malik Nabers ADP 25.9 (Target MVP 100) MVP Forecast 115 to 135 (MVP26 50)
Cam Skattebo ADP 43.5 (Target MVP 80) MVP Forecast 100 to 140 (MVP26 50)
Isiah Likely ADP 78.2 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 35 to 75 (MVP26 50)
Jaxson Dart ADP 132.1 (Target MVP 80) MVP Forecast 95 to 135 (MVP26 INJURED)
Tyrone Tracey ADP 137 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 80 (MVP26 -100)
Conclusion: Dart's injury will hurt this offense going forward, but Nabers and Skattebo should still have solid seasons.
Breece Hall ADP 31.7 (Target MVP 95) MVP Forecast 90 to 130 (MVP26 67)
Garret Wilson ADP 38.8 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 100 to 125 (MVP26 100)
Conclusion: It was scary to suggest that QB Geno Smith was an improvement at the position, but that forecast proved very accurate. Hall and Wilson are both living up to expectations.
Saquon Barkley ADP 17.3 (Target MVP 105) MVP Forecast 95 to 125 (MVP26 -50)
DeVonta Smith ADP 31.7 (Target MVP 90) MVP Forecast 100 to 120 (MVP26 100)
Dallas Goedert ADP 87.8 (Target MVP 30) MVP Forecast 40 to 65 (MVP26 50)
Jalen Hurts ADP 99.8 (Target MVP 105) MVP Forecast 95 to 125 (MVP26 75)
Makai Lemon ADP 113.1 (Target MVP 25) MVP Forecast 75 to 115 (MVP26 -50)
Tank Bigsby ADP 139.5 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 70 (MVP26 -25)
Conclusion: I was much lower than consensus on Barkley, and that has kept me isolated from his lack of production and injury issues this season. The injuries to DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert have also caused issues, and offensive line departures are now a concern.
Jaylen Warren ADP 68.6 (Target MVP 60) MVP Forecast 70 to 90 (MVP26 100)
Rico Dowdle ADP 79.6 (Target MVP 50) MVP Forecast 75 to 85 (MVP26 -50)
DK Metcalf ADP 83.3 (Target MVP 50) MVP Forecast 75 to 100 (MVP26 50)
Michael Pittman ADP 91.9 (Target MVP 45) MVP Forecast 75 to 105 (MVP26 -67)
Conclusion: I was concerned about this offense because of Rodgers at QB, but he has done well the last couple of weeks. I was higher than consensus on Warren, which is paying off, but I also took a few shares of Pittman, which wasn't smart.
Jaxson Smith Njigba ADP6.3 (Target MVP 130) MVP Forecast 130 to 155 (MVP26 175)
Jadarian Price ADP57.5 (Target MVP 65) MVP Forecast 75 to 95 (MVP26 -33 INJURED)
Zach Charbonnet ADP 133.6 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 50 to 90 (MVP26 INJURED)
Rashid Shaheed ADP 147.4 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 50 to 80 (MVP26 -25)
Conclusion: After four weeks, it seems laughable that so many people were concerned about JSN due to a new play caller. Even with an injury to his starting QB, JSN has been the elite WR you were expecting when you drafted him early in the first round.
Christian McCaffrey ADP 7.1 (Target MVP 130) MVP Forecast 135 to 160 (MVP26 150)
Mike Evans ADP 61 (Target MVP 65) MVP Forecast 95 to 120 (MVP26 75)
George Kittle ADP 73.5 (Target MVP 45) MVP Forecast 70 to 110 (MVP26 75)
De’Zhaun Stribling ADP 101.7 (Target MVP 35) MVP Forecast 60 to 80 (MVP26 INJURED)
Deebo Samuel ADP 124.1 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 70 to 100 (MVP26 75)
Brock Purdy ADP 134 (Target MVP 75) MVP Forecast 95 to 110 (MVP26 150)
Conclusion: The forecast predicted a drop in CMC volume, but he would still be a Top 5 RB, and that prediction was solid. Brock Purdy might be the best late-value QB in Fantasy Football this season. Both Evans and Kittle have been solid.
Emeka Egbuka ADP 39.1 (Target MVP 85) MVP Forecast 90 to 125 (MVP26 50)
Bucky Irving ADP 53.6 (Target MVP 70) MVP Forecast 90 to 115 (MVP26 75)
Chris Godwin ADP 79.4 (Target MVP 55) MVP Forecast 90 to 120 (MVP26 0)
Kenneth Gainwell ADP 84.1 (Target MVP 40) MVP Forecast 70 to 90 (MVP26 -50)
Conclusion: The Bucs’ offense hasn't been as solid as expected, and Baker is now injured and will miss a few more games. Despite the slow starts, Irving and Egbuka should come around.
Carnell Tate ADP 71.5 (Target MVP 60) MVP Forecast 70 to 100 (MVP26 75)
Tony Pollard ADP 78 (Target MVP 50) MVP Forecast 55 to 90 (MVP26 25)
Wan’ Dale Robinson ADP 97.9 (Target MVP 40) MVP Forecast 60 to 85 (MVP26 25)
Tyjae Spears ADP 137.7 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 40 to 80 (MVP26 -67)
Conclusion: Tate was the only Titans player I was heavily invested in this season, and he's already been solid. Pollard has kept his job and is Flex-worthy.
Terry McLaurin ADP 53.8 (Target MVP 75) MVP Forecast 80 to 100 (MVP26 0)
Jayden Daniels ADP 93.6 (Target MVP 110) MVP Forecast 110 to 130 (MVP26 50)
Jacory Croskey Merrit ADP 94.6 (Target MVP 25) MVP Forecast 45 to 85 (MVP26 25)
Stefon Diggs ADP 100.5 (Target MVP 35) MVP Forecast 85 to 120 (MVP26 75)
Rachaad White ADP 104.7 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 70 to 105 (MVP26 33)
Chig Okonkwo ADP 126.5 (Target MVP 20) MVP Forecast 35 to 65 (MVP26 -100)
Conclusion: Jayden Daniels has been solid in his full games played, but injuries could still slow him down at times. Diggs has been productive, but now he will miss some time too. The RB situation is a mess as expected.
As the Fantasy Football season passes the quarter pole, I am pleased with my pre-season forecasts for most players. There were a few big misses but many more hits. The top of the draft had no big misses after the first four weeks of play, and some of my best-value guys worked out. The late QB option was a solid game plan for most of my teams again this season. The Chiefs' offensive revival was one of my most-disputed predictions, and it proved right. My questioning of Mike McDaniel's offensive genius has also proven correct so far.