SCIENCE of Fantasy Football Report

GSPI Preseason Week 1 – August 13–15, 2026

The GSPI (Game Script Predictive Index) attempts to envision the levels of passing and rushing for team and player prop understanding.

Preseason Week 1 features all 32 teams across a three-day slate beginning Thursday, August 13. These are exhibition contests with heavy starter management expected; most projected Week 1 starters will see limited or zero snaps. Consensus lines remain tight and totals cluster in the mid-to-high 30s, reflecting typical preseason scoring environments and uncertainty over personnel. Offensive strength rankings below reflect the most recent full-season Offensive EPA/play data available heading into the 2026 campaign.

1. Core Data Inputs

2. GSPI Results

3. Betting & Volume Summary

4. Official Preseason/Regular-Season Depth Charts (Relevant Snaps)

Preseason Week 1 prioritizes evaluation of backups and roster bubbles. Confirmed or expected starter DNPs/limited snaps are noted where available from team reports and coaching comments.

Key Game Highlights (selected for volume clarity):

• Bengals vs Lions: Burrow and Goff expected limited or out. Focus on Flacco/backup Lions QBs and second-team RBs/WRs.

• Steelers vs Packers: Rodgers and Love expected limited. Mason Rudolph and Tyrod Taylor (or equivalent) likely primary.

• Chiefs vs Rams: Mahomes and Stafford expected to sit or see minimal snaps. Justin Fields and Stetson Bennett/Ty Simpson projected primary evaluation.

• Bills vs Panthers: Josh Allen limited; Kyle Allen primary. Bryce Young limited; Kenny Pickett or equivalent.

• Seahawks vs Cowboys: Darnold and Prescott limited. Drew Lock and Joe Milton projected higher volume.

• Broader pattern across slate: Starting QBs, top RBs, and WR1s largely held or short stints. Opportunity concentrated on RB2/RB3, WR3/WR4, TE2, and backup QBs.

5. Script Impact on Player Props

Strong/Mild Positive Script Effects

• RBs: Elevated carry volume and efficiency (positive multipliers 1.08–1.18x). Prefer home or favored-team RB2/RB3.

• QBs: Reduced pass attempts; lower ceiling on passing props.

• WR/TE: Mild suppression of targets unless high-efficiency route runners.

Neutral Script Effects

• Balanced volume. Focus on individual matchup and role clarity rather than script.

Strong/Mild Negative Script Effects

• RBs: Suppressed carries (0.82–0.94x). Fade or under.

• QBs: Elevated pass volume (1.05–1.15x). Prefer backup QBs in negative scripts with pass-friendly totals.

• WR/TE: Increased target opportunity, especially for primary and secondary options on trailing teams.

Decision Framework

1. Confirm expected starter snap count (most Week 1 starters limited).

2. Align player role with script direction and multiplier.

3. Prefer volume on second- and third-string skill players in clear positive or negative scripts.

4. Discount weather and total when both are neutral; prioritize role + script.

Highest-Conviction Prop Angles

• Positive-script home RB2/RB3 volume in Bengals, Broncos, Bills, and Seahawks games.

• Negative-script backup QB pass volume and secondary WR targets in Lions, Falcons, and Commanders games.

• Neutral-to-positive TE/WR3 opportunities in higher-total contests (Raiders-Cardinals, Giants-Vikings).

6. Strongest Scripts of the Week

Three Strongest Positive-Script Teams

1. Cincinnati Bengals (Strong Positive, ~1.18x Rush / 0.88x Pass)

2. Denver Broncos (Strong Positive, ~1.15x Rush / 0.88x Pass)

3. Seattle Seahawks / Buffalo Bills (Mild-Strong Positive, ~1.10x Rush / 0.93x Pass)

Three Strongest Negative-Script Teams

1. Detroit Lions (Strong Negative, ~0.82x Rush / 1.15x Pass)

2. Atlanta Falcons (Strong Negative, ~0.85x Rush / 1.12x Pass)

3. Washington Commanders / Dallas Cowboys (Mild-Strong Negative, ~0.92x Rush / 1.07–1.09x Pass)

Expected effects: Positive-script teams project elevated rushing volume and efficiency with suppressed pass attempts. Negative-script teams project the inverse—higher pass volume and reduced rushing opportunity—particularly valuable for backup skill players receiving extended evaluation snaps.

These materials are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not intended as betting or financial advice.