Professor John Bush and Dennis Michelsen are back for another edition of The Science of Fantasy Football. 

This week, our dynamic duo recap their trip to the Fantasy Football Expo with a big thank you to Bob Lung and the staff. 

We recap the Poster Session and get you ready for draft season with some updated info that you need.  

1.          Opening and show setup: Dennis introduces the science-based approach to fantasy football.

2. ·         Fantasy Football Expo recap: Dennis and John discuss Canton, Bob Long, the data posters, and community connections.

3. ·         Draft Night Out: They recap the live draft environment, roster construction, and key player decisions.

4. ·         Draft strategy: The conversation moves into "Better Than Zero," positional planning, roster depth, and waiver flexibility.

5. ·         Prop-market lessons: John and Dennis use Vegas props as a thinking tool for evaluating quarterbacks, running backs, 

   1. 1. 1. 1. 1. wide receivers, and tight ends.

6. ·         Closing notes: They point readers toward the site, upcoming articles, and future show topics.

Science of Fantasy Football: Expo Recap, Draft Strategy, and Prop Market Lessons

A structured transcript with section headings, quick takeaways, and reader cues for easier scanning.

Reader's Guide

·         Opening and show setup: Dennis introduces the science-based approach to fantasy football.

·         Fantasy Football Expo recap: Dennis and John discuss Canton, Bob Long, the data posters, and community connections.

·         Draft Night Out: They recap the live draft environment, roster construction, and key player decisions.

·         Draft strategy: The conversation moves into "Better Than Zero," positional planning, roster depth, and waiver flexibility.

·         Prop-market lessons: John and Dennis use Vegas props as a thinking tool for evaluating quarterbacks, running backs, 

wide receivers, and tight ends.

·         Closing notes: They point readers toward the site, upcoming articles, and future show topics.

Opening: Why the "Science" of Fantasy Football Matters

Quick takeaway: The episode opens by framing fantasy football as a statistics-based game where disciplined analysis, scientific thinking, and smarter interpretation of data can create an edge.

Key quote: "We're using the scientific method, which is looking at statistics more smartly."

Dennis Michelsen: Here we go.

Dennis Michelsen: How are you doing, everybody? This is Dennis Michelsen. Welcome.

Dennis Michelsen: Welcome to the Science of Fantasy Football. Why the science of fantasy football? When you get a meteorologist and a biologist together, they are going to use the scientific method, and that is guaranteed.

Dennis Michelsen: Guaranteed to make you a smarter fantasy football player. How can I give a guarantee? It means we are using the scientific method, which is looking at statistics more smartly.

Dennis Michelsen: In a statistics-based game like fantasy football, that is going to give you a big-time edge. Joining me, as he does each week, is my partner in crime from the Fantasy Football Expo last week.

Dennis Michelsen: He is the fantasy professor, a real professor, Mr. John Bush. John, first, my goodness, could you imagine having more fun than we did out at the Fantasy Football Expo? What a good time.

John Bush: It was a great time. I urge everybody to show up next year. We had data posters.

John Bush: People stopped by, and we talked.

John Bush: We shared lots of ideas and made some friends, we hope.

John Bush: It was just all good.

John Bush: People took pictures of the posters, and I have posted all of them on the site so everyone can see them.

John Bush: There they are for anyone who wants to see them. We had a great time. Canton is great. We saw lots of friends, met new people, and it was all good.

John Bush: And we did Draft Night Out. I did want to hit a few picks from the two teams you and I had. We ought to chew a little bit on those.

John Bush: Those are the things we drafted in Draft Night Out.

Fantasy Football Expo Recap: Canton, Community, and Data Posters

Quick takeaway: Dennis and John reflect on the Fantasy Football Expo, thank Bob Long and his family, and explain why the data-poster project felt like a major step forward.

Key quote: "I think we're bringing something unique, and I think that's what Bob sees."

Dennis Michelsen: First, I want to give a big thank you to Mr. Bob Long on several levels.

Dennis Michelsen: First, he is ambitious enough to put this whole idea of a fantasy football expo together.

Dennis Michelsen: That is so much fun, but what really stood out was walking into that building last Sunday morning with no idea where we were going to set up.

Dennis Michelsen: We had never been in that building before.

John Bush: The Civic Center in Canton.

Dennis Michelsen: The Civic Center—and by the way, I like the Civic Center better than the Dome over at the Hall of Fame. I hope this is where the Expo stays for many years.

Dennis Michelsen: Bob Long, who is busy all year long but especially on show day, said, "I know exactly where I am putting you guys."

Dennis Michelsen: That, Professor, was such a great way to start our day.

John Bush: What a treat. Dennis, it really was a treat.

Dennis Michelsen: We are two nobodies in this business, but we are very good at what we do.

Dennis Michelsen: We are good at data analysis, but we are not on SiriusXM, we do not work for ESPN, and we are not attached to a major site.

Dennis Michelsen: Bob treats us as if we are among the most important people at his Expo, because he treats everybody that way.

Dennis Michelsen: We are not paying him for this project yet, but we think it can eventually become a revenue stream for him.

Dennis Michelsen: For him to already see the value in what we are doing was incredibly flattering.

Dennis Michelsen: It was also great to talk with his incredibly bright daughter.

Dennis Michelsen: When I found out her background, I was amazed that she was there talking with us. Your educational background blows me away, and hers was almost equally impressive.

John Bush: It was really good.

Dennis Michelsen: It was also nice getting to talk with Bob's wife, who came over to visit.

John Bush: She was very sweet.

Dennis Michelsen: Everybody checked out the data posters, and that was so flattering.

Dennis Michelsen: Professor, you put in a lot of hard work to make this happen, and I thank you for that.

Dennis Michelsen: I think we are on the way to making this what we envisioned at the beginning.

Dennis Michelsen: It has only been about 14 months since we came up with this crazy idea of doing data posters, and we already had four of them there. They were very well received.

John Bush: Yes.

Dennis Michelsen: We had so much great interaction. Joe Bryant from Footballguys came over, talked with us, and took pictures.

John Bush: He was very nice.

Dennis Michelsen: To me, we got much farther along with the data-poster idea.

Dennis Michelsen: At this time last year, I was not sure where it was going. I knew what we had in mind and what we thought we could do with it, but now I know we can do what we envisioned.

Dennis Michelsen: I think we are adding something unique to an already great show, and I think that is what Bob sees.

Dennis Michelsen: That is why he has been so encouraging. A big thank you to Bob Long, because this is clearly a labor of love for his whole family.

Dennis Michelsen: This is a chance for him to show off his hometown of Canton, Ohio, to everybody.

Dennis Michelsen: And you could not ask for a better person to be running a fantasy football expo than Mr. Bob Long. So, Bob, thank you very much for putting up with John and me.

John Bush: Yes, thank you. I also want to say I appreciate the Hall of Fame gift shop. Because Drew Brees was being honored, I actually got to buy some Saints memorabilia.

John Bush: The year before, the Saints selection was thin, but Drew Brees coming in clearly inspired a restocking. Before that, it felt like the Chiefs Hall of Fame.

John Bush: That is what it looked like to me. This year, I got to buy a Drew Brees Class of 2026 shirt, and I think that is great.

John Bush: I hope the induction goes well. It was a treat to go, and you and I always love shopping there. There were lots of good fans and hard-working folks.

John Bush: The Hall of Fame is wonderful. I learned a lot, and as a history buff, I really enjoyed it. Dennis and I also had fun with some of the props.

John Bush: It is worth your time. If you attend the Expo, make sure you also take time to visit the Hall of Fame and attend the panels. They had great panels set up.

John Bush: A lot was happening, and it seemed bigger and better for us and for others as well. It was a very good time.

Dennis Michelsen: It was great to see Greg Kellogg and Rick Rosellis from the Sports Affiliation Group, along with some of our guys like Tip and Nick Wilcox.

Dennis Michelsen: It was also great to see others who have made a point over the last few years to come over, chat with us, and talk fantasy football.

Dennis Michelsen: It is so much fun. You and I are old enough to know better than to hang out with the nighttime crowd, but younger folks can enjoy that part too.

Dennis Michelsen: It is always a good time talking fantasy football with people who have a similar affliction.

Dennis Michelsen: That is what makes Draft Night Out special.

Draft Night Out: Atmosphere, Food, and Live Draft Energy

Quick takeaway: The hosts describe Draft Night Out at Jersey's, including the live-draft setting, the food, the crowd, and the fun of drafting in person.

Key quote: "Always a good time talking fantasy football with a bunch of people that have a similar affliction."

Dennis Michelsen: For the last two years at Jersey's, it has been a nice place to hang out.

John Bush: Hey, Jersey's, shout-out to you for the touchdown platter.

John Bush: Dennis and I snacked on it, and we left some vittles for anyone who wanted to pick off the plate.

John Bush: It was pretty good. I enjoyed the tater skins, the wings, and everything else. If you go to Draft Night Out, get yourself a touchdown platter and support the place.

John Bush: The servers were wonderful. They were very sweet and kept our drinks filled.

John Bush: It was just all a great time. You and I got a private booth. We had the horse racing channel on, and so that was fun in between the few minutes in the draft to watch some ponies run around.

John Bush: I decided not to bet because I did not want to mess with the mojo or get too mad or too ecstatic if I won something. I just enjoyed the races for what they were. It was great, Dennis. Good times.

Dennis Michelsen: I only lost two bucks.

14:13:18 --> 14:13:20

Dennis Michelsen: I made one $2 bet on a 7-to-1 shot.

Dennis Michelsen: It ran second.

Dennis Michelsen: It ran second, and I would have been more braggy about it if I had won.

Dennis Michelsen: It was not even close. I lost by about four lengths, so there was never really a risk of winning. It was not like I was leading into the stretch and lost the lead.

Dennis Michelsen: Not very thrilling, but then it got too busy once the draft started.

John Bush: Yeah, it was a lot of stuff happening.

Dennis Michelsen: Last year at this time, when we got done with Draft Night Out, I was a little concerned about my team.

Dennis Michelsen: I had let too many players who were dropping in value inflate in value for me.

John Bush: I do want to thank you, Dennis, for your secret cheat sheet. It was coded well, and I had my fly swatter ready for anyone trying to cheat off our notes. It was all good.

Dennis Michelsen: Wasn't that a nice cheat sheet?

John Bush: You worked very hard on that, Dennis. I have used that and some of the secret stuff you and I talked about. We are very excited, and maybe somewhere down the road we will discuss it further. There is a lot of beta testing going on.

John Bush: It started with Draft Night Out. The year before, I was concerned about my teams as well, and I think I know where you were going with your concern in 2025.

Dennis Michelsen: Last year, I inflated the value of too many players who were dropping.

Draft Strategy: Sticking to the Plan

Quick takeaway: Dennis explains how he avoided overreacting to players who fell in drafts, stayed committed to his strategy, and used draft position to guide decisions.

Key quote: "This year, I made sure to stick to my guns. Stick to my game plan."

Dennis Michelsen: Last year, I inflated the value of too many players who were dropping. This year, I made sure to stick to my guns.

Dennis Michelsen: I stuck to my game plan. Going into this draft, I had already completed about six FFPC drafts.

Dennis Michelsen: This format was slightly different, but similar in structure.

Dennis Michelsen: It had two flex spots, two wide receivers, two running backs, one tight end, one quarterback, a kicker, and a defense.

Dennis Michelsen: Draft Night Out also had eight bench spots instead of ten.

John Bush: And kicker and defense.

John Bush: It is a little thin. I would love to have ten bench spots, but eight is okay.

Dennis Michelsen: Eight is okay. I looked at this and decided I was not going to attack the draft any differently than I have at FFPC.

Dennis Michelsen: At FFPC this year, I have done a good job of avoiding the noise, sticking to a strategy, and keeping with the Better Than Zero theory.

Better Than Zero Theory

Key idea: The strategy emphasizes best player available early, upside late, and accumulating running backs who have paths to opportunity.

Key quote: "It stresses best player available early, upside late, and lots of running backs."

Dennis Michelsen: Last year, on a few of the FFPC teams, I was still working through the Better Than Zero concept.

Dennis Michelsen: We were still beta testing it. It was only the second year of using that drafting theory, and it is really an adaptive draft style.

Dennis Michelsen: It stresses best player available early, upside late, and lots of running backs. You cannot have enough running backs in a Better Than Zero concept.

Dennis Michelsen: I gave you my list of favored late running backs, all based on opportunity.

Dennis Michelsen: You are the only one I have shared that list with, so I am not going up against you. I am safe there. But executing the draft concept matters.

Dennis Michelsen: Everybody has a plan until they get hit in the face once. In a fantasy football draft, you have to enter with a strategy, and that strategy has to adjust based on your draft slot.

Dennis Michelsen: In this draft, I was drafting tenth, so it called for a late-draft philosophy.

Dennis Michelsen: The late-draft philosophy says that if all of my safe first-rounders are gone, then I am considering a tight end.

Dennis Michelsen: In FFPC, that is almost mandatory because it is tight end premium.

Dennis Michelsen: In this league, taking one in the first round would probably have been a bad move, but in the second round I might have gone with either Bowers or McBride, depending on who was available.

Quarterback and Tight End Planning

Key idea: Dennis identifies Drake Maye as a core quarterback value and Tucker Kraft as a targeted tight end pairing, while also explaining when he would pivot to late-round quarterback or value tight ends.

Key quote: "I think Drake Maye is the best value at quarterback this year."

Dennis Michelsen: If I do not get those two, then I am going with value tight ends quite a bit later in the draft.

Dennis Michelsen: My quarterback theory this year is simple: I think Drake Maye is the best value at quarterback.

Dennis Michelsen: If Drake Maye does not fall to me at the right time, which I have determined is the sixth round, then I am going late quarterback and taking two.

Dennis Michelsen: This is where having ten bench spots lets you be a two-quarterback, two-tight-end team more easily than when benches get smaller.

Dennis Michelsen: The only adjustment I made while drafting tenth was deciding whether to take Drake Maye in the late fifth.

Dennis Michelsen: Would he have fallen to me in the sixth? I do not know, and I was not taking that chance.

Dennis Michelsen: My strategy was Drake Maye and Tucker Kraft late in the fifth and early in the sixth, and I got them both.

Dennis's Draft Night Out Roster Build

Key idea: Dennis liked his start with James Cook and Justin Jefferson, added Drake Maye and Tucker Kraft as planned, and later identified running back depth as the main roster concern.

Key quote: "Starting from the 10th slot, I got James Cook, and I came back with Justin Jefferson. What's not to like about that start?"

Dennis Michelsen: I am pretty happy with how the team came together. Starting from the 10th slot, I got James Cook and came back with Justin Jefferson. What is not to like about that start? I understand Jefferson has questionable quarterback play.

Dennis Michelsen: But is it going to be worse than it was last season in Minnesota?

Dennis Michelsen: I do not think so, even if it ends up being J.J. McCarthy.

John Bush: Dennis, I did not realize you got Kraft.

Dennis Michelsen: Yes, I got Kraft in the sixth, so I was very pleased with that move.

John Bush: Let me see here. I got Kraft, too.

Dennis Michelsen: You got Kraft as well, and you got Drake Maye and Kraft.

John Bush: And Maye.

Dennis Michelsen: We ended up executing the same duo.

John Bush: I had Gibbs, Love, Olave, Davante Adams, Warren, and Dowdle.

Dennis Michelsen: Oh, I love that!

John Bush: That gives me a strategy where I can play them both.

John Bush: I was amazed that you got both of them there.

Dennis Michelsen: I was very pleased with how this draft ended up.

Dennis Michelsen: I added Swift at running back to go with Cook.

Dennis Michelsen: I am a little thinner than I want to be at running back. My third running back is Chuba Hubbard.

Dennis Michelsen: I missed adding his backup by one spot, which would have allowed me to play them both with Brooks.

Dennis Michelsen: I did end up grabbing Chris Rodriguez in the 11th round because I think he has a shot at beating out Tuten, or he could benefit if Tuten gets hurt.

Dennis Michelsen: Then I added Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Ray Davis.

Dennis Michelsen: I felt pretty good about the late running backs I landed. I took Ray Davis mainly because he backs up my James Cook shares.

Dennis Michelsen: At wide receiver, in addition to Jefferson, I was able to grab Tee Higgins late in the third round.

Dennis Michelsen: I really liked that move.

Dennis Michelsen: Later, I added Cortland Sutton.

Dennis Michelsen: I think we are going to see more out of him. I also think Sutton and Waddle will be closer in performance than some people expect.

Dennis Michelsen: I also backed up Kraft with Travis Kelce in the 10th round.

Dennis Michelsen: Even though it is not tight end premium, there may be weeks when I play both Kraft and Kelce.

Dennis Michelsen: I could put one of them in the flex, and I feel good about that as another way to round out my lineup.

Dennis Michelsen: For my late wide receivers, I got Jayden Higgins in the ninth. I really like his chances of getting better.

Dennis Michelsen: Then I had Deebo Samuel and Tank Dell as parting gifts. With Deebo ending up with San Francisco, I am not unhappy with that draft pick.

Dennis Michelsen: At the time, it was a blind pick, but I can live with it.

John Bush: Especially if Kittle gets off to a slow start.

John Bush: You could get some early action there.

Dennis Michelsen: If Kittle is slow to start, what if they want to keep CMC's volume down and play Deebo out of the backfield some?

John Bush: Wouldn't that be a treat?

Dennis Michelsen: Stribling, who I like, is a rookie. What if he is a little slower coming along?

John Bush: I am afraid you are going to have to pay more since Pearsall may be done for the season. Is he done? I had not heard.

Dennis Michelsen: Pearsall is definitely done for the season. He is undergoing surgery, so he is gone, and that adds to the interest in Deebo.

John Bush: But people are going to get greedy with Stribling, and it may not be worth the squeeze if the price keeps going up.

Dennis Michelsen: With any team, when you get done drafting, you know right away where your weakness is.

Dennis Michelsen: My weakness is running back depth. Until some of those young players hit, if they hit, I am a little thin. I really like Singleton's chances of winning that job over Pollard, and it is not just injury-related.

Dennis Michelsen: Kaytron Allen with Washington. Washington is probably going to be a mess at running back again this year. You have White, JCM, Kaytron Allen, and Jerome Ford on that roster. It is going to be a mess.

Dennis Michelsen: But I got one of those backs, so maybe I get the survivor.

Dennis Michelsen: The key is that I do not need those guys immediately as long as either Cook or Davis stays healthy in Buffalo. And if Swift pans out the way I think he will, I really like DeAndre Swift's upside this year.

Dennis Michelsen: He posted a really solid MVP number. Our secret sauce likes him.

John Bush: I like him where he is going. There is a little pocket of value there.

Dennis Michelsen: It is a little bit of the infamous dead zone that everybody talks about.

Dennis Michelsen: It is not just a running back dead zone. When we look at our secret sauce, it is almost an entire-round dead zone.

John Bush: You and I looked at that a while ago with the secret stuff.

Dennis Michelsen: Overall, I am pretty pleased with my team. I think I am going in as a contender this year. Last year, I knew one injury could put me in trouble, and when Lamar Jackson went down, I knew I was officially in trouble.

Dennis Michelsen: Running back depth still concerns me, and not having a backup to Drake Maye concerns me as well. I am playing a little fast and loose there, but I am hoping he stays healthy.

Dennis Michelsen: There are also some options available on the waiver wire. Even right after the draft, I am already looking at the waiver wire.

Dennis Michelsen: Cam Ward is there, Daniel Jones is there, Mendoza is there.

Dennis Michelsen: A lot of teams only went with one quarterback, so there is some talent available.

John Bush: Oh, and by the way, Dennis, we have one IR spot.

Dennis Michelsen: Correct.

John Bush: Just to let you know.

Dennis Michelsen: I got a little fancy after the draft.

Dennis Michelsen: I had Tucker Kraft on PUP.

Dennis Michelsen: So I put him in IR, and I picked up Jaguars as my defense.

John Bush: Is he on PUP?

Dennis Michelsen: He was on PUP. Now he is off PUP, so I have to decide who I want to cut.

Dennis Michelsen: I have not made that decision yet. I am going to wait.

John Bush: I am waiting, too. I have to cut two players because I did not draft a kicker or defense.

Dennis Michelsen: I did not draft a kicker or defense either, because none of the kickers or defenses I wanted were available.

Dennis Michelsen: I would only have drafted one I wanted to roster every week, but Houston and Seattle were already gone.

John Bush: I am going to stream.

Dennis Michelsen: I will stream as well. I picked up the Jaguars because they open the season against Cleveland.

Dennis Michelsen: They are going to be a streaming option for me.

Dennis Michelsen: Knowing that going in, they were one of the defenses I would have considered drafting, but I decided to take a shot on Tank Dell instead.

Dennis Michelsen: And we will see how Tank Dell works out. I wanted to maximize my roster.

Dennis Michelsen: Somebody is going to get hurt before Week 1. That is how it usually goes, so I will be ready to make the moves I need to make and move on from anyone who does not pan out.

Dennis Michelsen: Then I can grab a kicker off waivers when I need one.

Dennis Michelsen: It was a fun time at Draft Night Out, and this year, staying true to my strategy, I think I will do a little bit better.

John Bush: I hope so. I want to repeat because I won Draft Night Out last year.

John Bush: Dennis, uh…

Dennis Michelsen: Because you stuck to our data.

Dennis Michelsen: Hey, that's pretty cool.

John Bush: I still have not put it on the wall yet, but there it is.

John Bush: I would like to double that total.

John Bush: If I get three or four of those wins, maybe I can trade them in for a belt. I probably would not walk around with one, but I know the younger crowd enjoys that.

John Bush: My strategy is to fly low. The lower you fly, the harder it is to hit you. I do not want anyone to know who I am in those leagues.

John Bush: In my leagues, I use secret names because I do not want people to know who I am.

Dennis Michelsen: Though I know where to find you, so I can avoid you.

John Bush: We have shared our secret identities, like Batman and Superman, to make sure we are not cutting each other's throats in the same leagues.

John Bush: I do not have time to battle Dennis and fight the variation I normally have to fight. I do not need Dennis messing with my players or my plans.

John Bush: We are partnering, and that is why we will be looking ahead together.

John Bush: Maybe in two weeks, we will do our first best ball superflex entry.

Looking Ahead: Superflex Best Ball and Secret Sauce Testing

Quick takeaway: Dennis and John preview future best ball and superflex tournament entries, while also discussing continued testing of their expanding data model.

Key quote: "We've gone deeper into the playoffs and collected money. We haven't lost money in that show."

John Bush: Maybe in two weeks, we will do our first best ball superflex tournament entry. I want us to take two or three shots at that this year, so maybe we will have a show where we chew on it a little bit. I am looking forward to that.

Dennis Michelsen: We have done well in those tournaments.

John Bush: We have gone deeper into the playoffs and collected money. We have not lost money in that format.

Dennis Michelsen: And if Tua had not been benched at the end of last year, we might have had a much bigger result.

John Bush: I am still going crazy over that. That cost us some money, Dennis.

Dennis Michelsen: That cost us potentially a lot of money, so we will definitely chew on those entries.

John Bush: But you cannot predict what the coach is going to do.

Dennis Michelsen: In that superflex tournament, we went really cheap at quarterback.

Dennis Michelsen: We lost one quarterback to injury, then Tua was benched. That one-two punch hurt us, and we still came close to advancing into the final week.

Dennis Michelsen: We did not quite make the cut for the very big money.

John Bush: I think we would have been in the final group if we had made that cut.

Dennis Michelsen: Yes, if we had made that cut, we would have won some nice cash in that tournament. That is what we are going to try to do this year, folks.

John Bush: We will try to get a couple of bites at that. Dennis is my superflex guru.

John Bush: Our secret sauce is evolving. We have extra columns and extra ways to look at the data now. Remember when we just had one column? Now we have about 20.

John Bush: We are getting data-heavy here, so I am hoping we can work through all of that this year. There is a lot of beta testing going on, folks. Some of it you will hear about.

John Bush: Some of it you will not hear about, but we have to make money.

Dennis Michelsen: The idea of a multiple-index attack is that a consensus approach in science can be very useful when it is done correctly and honestly.

Dennis Michelsen: You can have all the metrics in the world, but if you build them too similarly, they become redundant and don't accomplish much.

Dennis Michelsen: I think we have unique ways of looking at the data right now.

Dennis Michelsen: Some metrics measure upside, some measure past performance, and some attempt to forecast the future.

Dennis Michelsen: That combination is very intriguing.

Dennis Michelsen: This year's beta test will be very interesting and, hopefully, very profitable.

Dennis Michelsen: Welcome to draft season. It is great that we are here. Some of us have already been drafting, but we are officially in August, which is when most drafts start happening more frequently.

Dennis Michelsen: We have also officially entered injury season, because two players who were being drafted in almost every FFPC draft are already gone for the season.

Dennis Michelsen: Ricky Pearsall is gone with a knee injury and will miss the whole season.

Dennis Michelsen: I do not have a single share of him through my first seven drafts because he was going too early even when healthy, and we knew he was coming in with a knee that probably should have been operated on last year.

Dennis Michelsen: Chris Brazell, an interesting rookie with Carolina, is also gone for the season.

Dennis Michelsen: Bryce Young is not exactly a thrilling quarterback to tie yourself to, even with their top wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan.

Dennis Michelsen: Their secondary option was even less appealing to us.

Dennis Michelsen: We like to avoid those WR2s unless they are on really good passing teams with really good quarterbacks. That limits us to guys like Davante Adams and Tee Higgins, to mention our two favorites.

Dennis Michelsen: Chris Brazell was not on that list.

Dennis Michelsen: He was going in the late rounds of FFPC drafts, usually around the 18th or 19th round.

Dennis Michelsen: For people who took a defense or kicker earlier, he was a late target, and now he is gone for the season. That is sad to see.

Dennis Michelsen: It is only the first week of training camp, and we have already lost two players from the consensus top 200.

John Bush: That was bad. Are we talking props here a little bit before we end the show?

14:35:23 --> 14:35:27

Using Vegas Props as a Fantasy Football Thinking Tool

Quick takeaway: The prop-market discussion is not presented as gambling advice. Instead, Dennis and John use props to ask better "what if?" questions about player ranges, roles, injury risk, and market expectations.

Key quote: "What if are the two most important words that you can use for forecasting the future in fantasy football."

Dennis Michelsen: We definitely want to talk about props because this all leans into what a prop really is: a "what if" question.

Dennis Michelsen: "What if" are the two most important words you can use when forecasting the future in fantasy football.

Dennis Michelsen: I do that before I build projections, and I am writing a What If article this week that looks at all 32 teams. That is what props help us do: play the what-if game and learn from the Vegas market.

Quarterback Props

Players discussed: Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, and Tyler Shough.

Key quote: "There's some goodness here that can be collected."

John Bush: For quarterbacks, I looked at the main props: passing yards, rushing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns, and related totals.

John Bush: I posted the quarterback data on the site, though I have not finished the other positions yet because there is so much going on during draft season.

John Bush: I added the passing and rushing numbers together, compared them with ADP and positional rank, and then grouped the quarterbacks into useful tiers.

John Bush: Goff, Stafford, Williams, and Darnold are the obvious ones relative to ADP.

John Bush: There is some goodness here that can be collected. I know we like Goff. I know we both like Mahomes.

John Bush: Mahomes is not mentioned by Vegas as much as he should be, but Stafford also stands out.

John Bush: If we are not getting Maye, then we are fishing in that late-quarterback pond, where Goff, Stafford, Williams, and Darnold become interesting.

John Bush: And that is not bad. Around 3,699, so basically 3,700. Kyler Murray is 3,773.

John Bush: I had a hard time highlighting Kyler Murray because his passing prop is weak, even though the rushing prop is strong.

John Bush: If I were betting Murray, it would probably be on the rushing prop. Dart and Willis are similar: weak passing profiles but meaningful rushing upside.

John Bush: That rushing value is volatile because of injury risk, so I would hate to rely on it too heavily.

John Bush: In a shallow bench, with ten bench spots, we can take a gamble on Dart, Murray, or Willis if we have to.

John Bush: That is why I like Darnold. He has one of the higher passing props among the late quarterback options, which makes him feel safer.

John Bush: The rest of the group looks fairly neutral. I did not see anything that was obviously terrible, but I am a little concerned about Lamar Jackson again.

John Bush: When you compare his passing projection to the players around him, his value is still tied heavily to rushing. If Baltimore decides to protect him more, that rushing number has to come down.

John Bush: I do not think Lamar will suddenly pass more. I think his passing stays about the same, and if the rushing comes down, his value drops. To me, he is the gamble, and I am more likely to pass and look for Maye. Our data loves Maye at that spot.

Dennis Michelsen: One thing I noticed in the data is Patrick Mahomes, and of course my Chiefs fandom comes out here.

Dennis Michelsen: I understand the concern with Mahomes coming off a knee injury and the idea that he may not have as much rushing upside.

John Bush: They have him at 28 rushing yards for the season.

John Bush: That seems low enough to invite a closer look.

Dennis Michelsen: Mahomes could beat that number on one scramble.

Dennis Michelsen: Remember a couple of years ago when he had the high ankle sprain in the playoffs?

Dennis Michelsen: It was bad enough that he had to come out for a drive, but Chad Henne drove them down the field and kept them in the game.

Dennis Michelsen: Kept him in the game, then he came back.

Dennis Michelsen: Then Mahomes came back, played the next week, and even in the Super Bowl he ran effectively despite an ankle that was heavily taped.

Dennis Michelsen: He ran for roughly 48 yards in one game and more than 30 in another.

Dennis Michelsen: If his knee is ready, I think he will be fine.

Dennis Michelsen: He is not going to start Week 1 unless the knee is ready to go.

Dennis Michelsen: If he can cut, he can beat that 28-yard number with one scramble.

Dennis Michelsen: He usually avoids major contact when he scrambles. He can take a 15-, 25-, or 30-yard run and get out of bounds before taking a hit.

Dennis Michelsen: I do not expect 400 or 500 rushing yards, but I also do not buy the idea that he will barely run at all.

Dennis Michelsen: If he plays 15 games, I think 150 to 200 rushing yards is realistic. Some weeks he will have none, and other weeks he will have more.

Dennis Michelsen: There is a possibility he does not play 15 games, and practicing is different from playing in a game.

Dennis Michelsen: But when that knee is truly ready, I think he can beat 28 rushing yards with a single attempt after being flushed from the pocket.

Dennis Michelsen: The idea that Mahomes will finish with only 28 rushing yards seems really low to me.

John Bush: These were last week's props, folks, so who knows how much the numbers have shifted. But that is what I scraped from the data.

Dennis Michelsen: Stafford, as a comparison, had 6 yards rushing last year, all of last year.

John Bush: They got him at 30.

Dennis Michelsen: That is a legitimate concern for Stafford, because he would need to scramble successfully, and that is something he has not done recently.

Dennis Michelsen: These are very interesting numbers overall.

Dennis Michelsen: The other one I am very curious about is Drake Maye.

Dennis Michelsen: I am curious where that number came from, or whether he was not fully listed in the prop data.

Dennis Michelsen: Drake Maye has been over 400 rushing yards in each of the last two years.

Dennis Michelsen: I do not see anything changing.

Dennis Michelsen: This year, I think Maye is good for 300 to 400 rushing yards. If you change that number, his stats look a lot better on this chart.

John Bush: The notes even point to strong passing props versus ADP, so there is a signal there.

Dennis Michelsen: I love those late-round guys, though: Goff, Stafford, and Caleb Williams are all really interesting.

Dennis Michelsen: The intriguing thing about Sam Darnold is that he is basically free.

Dennis Michelsen: There is no doubt he is going to start if he stays healthy.

Dennis Michelsen: He is in a very interesting offense, and they threw more than a lot of teams with strong defenses.

John Bush: Well, think about JSN with him. Look at Tyler Shough and Olave.

John Bush: There is some stacking value there. If I am in Draft Night Out, I pick Shough with my last pick.

John Bush: Because I got Olave, I wanted that as a stack in a favorable week.

John Bush: If Maye is out, or if the first matchup against Seattle concerns me, that may be where I roll the dice with Shough and Olave.

John Bush: That is my alternative option.

John Bush: I have not looked deeply into the Week 1 matchup yet, but I wanted the option to pair Shough with Olave if the setup looks favorable.

Dennis Michelsen: Yeah, it is Shough.

Dennis Michelsen: Shough had 186 rushing yards last year.

Dennis Michelsen: They did not put a prop on Shough because he is a very difficult quarterback to project.

Dennis Michelsen: I think Shough could reasonably finish with 150 to 300 rushing yards, and that gives him a little extra value.

Dennis Michelsen: Yeah, and remember, his 186 yards were in half a season.

Dennis Michelsen: Because he did not start until halfway through the season, doubling that pace puts him around 360 rushing yards. Around 300 yards seems like a legitimate seasonal estimate.

Dennis Michelsen: He also found the end zone three times in eight games. If you double that pace, it starts to look pretty good.

Running Back Props

Players and themes discussed: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, TreVeyon Henderson, DeAndre Swift, injury risk, split backfields, rushing lines, and why overs can be dangerous before camps settle.

Key quote: "They're trying to get action to the high side, and with running backs, I think they love the overs."

John Bush: This is the running backs section. I just wanted to hit a few points, even though I have not posted these yet.

John Bush: I noticed there are a lot of props near ADP, so it looks like Vegas may be a little more on the mark here.

John Bush: I color-coded the totals and tier levels to make the grouping easier to see.

John Bush: You could put Bijan and Gibbs in the first tier, maybe.

John Bush: Notice they have Bijan about 100 yards ahead of Gibbs, but the ADP is flipped. Our numbers like Bijan over Gibbs a little bit as well.

John Bush: So I thought that was interesting.

John Bush: I have not fully decided what the props are telling me yet. I am mostly showing them so people can consider them.

John Bush: Henry being above Taylor, Cook, and Breece in total numbers stood out to me.

John Bush: They have Henry at about 1,200 yards total, with only 12 receiving yards, so I know he will do better than that receiving number.

John Bush: I also think Barkley may be going later in FFPC than some of these players.

John Bush: Barkley is a little low. I would have thought he and Henry would almost be reversed, but they are not. Kyren Williams is interesting, too. Look how far down Jeanty is.

Dennis Michelsen: I see a couple of things that really confuse me.

Dennis Michelsen: TreVeyon Henderson.

Dennis Michelsen: TreVeyon Henderson at 690 yards stands out. I understand that Rhamondre Stevenson was the back they hitched their wagon to for the playoffs last year.

Dennis Michelsen: I understand that TreVeyon missed a few games during the season.

Dennis Michelsen: Do you know how many total yards TreVeyon Henderson had as a rookie?

Dennis Michelsen: Over 1,100.

John Bush: Do you think Vegas throws some of these numbers out to stir people up?

Dennis Michelsen: They are trying to get action to the high side.

Dennis Michelsen: They're trying to get action to the high side, and with running backs, I think they love the overs.

Dennis Michelsen: There are two ways that player props can cash in favor of the house: injury or poor performance.

Dennis Michelsen: TreVeyon is just begging for an over. He had 1,100 yards as a rookie.

Dennis Michelsen: We know how rookies often improve in their second year when we grade them using our metrics. That increase can be huge.

Dennis Michelsen: They are forecasting almost half of his rookie yardage, and that does not make sense to me.

Dennis Michelsen: The other number that does not make sense is DeAndre Swift, because he has not been under this mark in the last three or four seasons.

Dennis Michelsen: Swift has been close to a 1,000-yard rusher for three straight seasons, even before adding his receiving work.

John Bush: Do you think they are assuming other backs will eat into his work?

John Bush: With players like Ben Johnson's backs and Stevenson involved, maybe they are just gambling on a split.

Dennis Michelsen: They are hoping for a split backfield.

Dennis Michelsen: I understand that, but they had a split backfield last year, and Swift still finished with almost 1,300 combined yards and more than 1,000 rushing yards.

Dennis Michelsen: TreVeyon Henderson had 1,100 yards, and Swift has already beaten this type of number. They are trying to attract overs, and I guarantee the house cashes plenty of those because of injuries.

John Bush: These were from about a week ago, Dennis. It was July; camps had not really started, and we had already seen some injuries.

John Bush: Vegas is not foolish. They know that, over the long run, Caesars Palace is still going to be there next year.

John Bush: All the $2 prop bettors are not going to put them out of business, Dennis, I assure you of that.

Dennis Michelsen: No, the only casino that managed to go out of business was run by Donald Trump, which is curious.

Dennis Michelsen: Sportsbooks grow. There is a reason they take in so much money, and there is a reason there are so many advertisements during every game.

John Bush: So, I would do a pre-mortem, folks, and look at my article.

John Bush: Vegas is inviting the idea that the backfield will be split, so use these two ways. If you feel too aggressive, be cautious.

John Bush: Flip the script and look for the negative case. End of July is not the time to get locked in and decide you must have Swift in all your bets. Just be cautious.

Dennis Michelsen: When we look at these numbers, remember they are not putting a prop bet on Swift's receiving yards. When I see 800—basically 799.5—they are implying that he will either get hurt or split time.

Dennis Michelsen: He has been rushing over 1,000 yards the last three years and has beaten that type of rushing prop each time. When you add receiving yards, he has blown past it.

John Bush: They are trying to play it just like Pollard being a little older, Montgomery, and Skattebo getting hurt last year.

John Bush: I notice there are some issues with a few of these players at the bottom. It is very intriguing, Dennis.

Dennis Michelsen: Very intriguing. I like looking at rushing lines especially, because they put a rushing line out for everyone in that top group.

Dennis Michelsen: I like looking at rushing lines more than combined yardage for running backs.

Wide Receiver Props

Players and themes discussed: DeVonta Smith, Malik Nabers, Jalen Waddle, George Pickens, Rashee Rice, Tee Higgins, Davante Adams, Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, JSN, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, and Chris Olave.

Key quote: "St. Brown is probably the safest of the safe bets again this year."

John Bush: Here are the wide receivers. These are the ones I thought showed some promise.

John Bush: I am not saying I like him—or any of these—, but DeVonta Smith and Malik Nabers intrigue me. Jalen Waddle is interesting, given the prop number.

John Bush: The ones that worry me are Pickens, Rice, Higgins, and Adams. According to this data, they look a little overpriced.

John Bush: I have some concerns, but the top group does not have many issues. I think it looks pretty straightforward.

John Bush: I do not know how you play touchdown props because they are so volatile. I would lean more toward receiving yards. But anyway, here is the data.

John Bush: Dennis, does anything jump out at you? I can also talk a little bit about your laser focus on the patterns here.

Dennis Michelsen: What is interesting to me is that I have four safe first-round wide receivers this year.

Dennis Michelsen: Those are, in no particular order, Chase, Nacua, JSN, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Dennis Michelsen: I could make a case for Amon-Ra St. Brown as the safest of the safe bets, since he has four consecutive seasons over 120 in my MVP index, and nobody else has three in a row.

Dennis Michelsen: Jefferson is my fifth wide receiver, and then it gets fuzzy for me.

Dennis Michelsen: I like A.J. Brown a little more than the rest of that next group.

Dennis Michelsen: That group includes CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Nico Collins, and DeVonta Smith.

Dennis Michelsen: And then it is Chris Olave for me. So Brown and Olave are in that next tier.

Dennis Michelsen: So I have four at the top, then Jefferson, then A.J. Brown and Olave together.

Dennis Michelsen: It gets interesting because if Nabers plays a full season, he belongs in that first tier.

Dennis Michelsen: He belongs with Chase, Nacua, JSN, and St. Brown.

Dennis Michelsen: If he plays 12 games and misses five, then I can make a case for him being in the A.J. Brown and Olave tier.

Dennis Michelsen: The reason he is going so late in drafts right now is all injury risk.

Dennis Michelsen: And here is the thing: is he going to be healthy, and is he going to be the real Malik Nabers?

Dennis Michelsen: If he is healthy and looks like the real Malik Nabers for the last six games of the season, I would take a shot at him at his current ADP.

Dennis Michelsen: Right now, in FFPC drafts, he is going in the late fourth. That is way lower than he should be. I will take that bet because he is a first-round talent going in the late fourth.

John Bush: Look at his ADP and compare it to the numbers. If you look at that group, he is one of the best values.

Dennis Michelsen: I definitely like him there. I am a little surprised that the data is so low on Tee Higgins, because I still like Higgins.

John Bush: The prop is there, but look at his ADP.

John Bush: It is out of whack, Dennis.

Dennis Michelsen: It is low. You are betting on him having the best season he can have, and that is what you need from him.

Dennis Michelsen: But I would still like Tee Higgins as my WR2.

Dennis Michelsen: And I am still all in on Davante Adams this year, and I am getting him cheaply enough that I think I have some downside risk built in.

Dennis Michelsen: But very interesting when you look at these props.

Tight End Props

Players and themes discussed: Kyle Pitts, Hunter Henry, Sam LaPorta, Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid, Travis Kelce, Tucker Kraft, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, best ball versus redraft, and tight end volatility.

Key quote: "I like Pitts better in best ball than I do in redraft, because I don't have to predict."

John Bush: Last one, and then we will shut this crazy stuff down.

John Bush: Pitts, of all people, looks like a possible bargain according to Vegas.

John Bush: At least according to this data, there is some value there.

John Bush: Hunter Henry seems a little tricky, while LaPorta and Ferguson appear to be a little underpriced.

John Bush: That is how the tight end group stacks up right now.

John Bush: I am not sure there are enough players here for me to make a huge decision. I am not running away from many of them, but I am also not chasing them aggressively.

John Bush: I am not getting Pitts early.

John Bush: I am not running from LaPorta at a good price, either. Hunter Henry always seems underestimated every year.

John Bush: He seems like a good tight end two possibility. Kincaid is another one.

John Bush: Ferguson worries me a little bit at his current price.

John Bush: Vegas seems a little skeptical this year, probably because of Pickens and Lamb.

John Bush: The thinking may be that there is not much left for Ferguson after those two.

Dennis Michelsen: Ferguson's point breakdown supports that concern.

Dennis Michelsen: When both Lamb and Pickens played, his MVP index was under 40. It was bad.

Dennis Michelsen: When Lamb was out, Ferguson had much better numbers. As for Pitts, 700 yards is nothing for him. He can be an 850-yard tight end every year.

Dennis Michelsen: The problem with Pitts is consistency.

Dennis Michelsen: He has 120-yard games, but he also has 20-yard games.

Dennis Michelsen: He is such a boom-and-bust guy. If you take away his best game, which was a 45-point game, he drops about five spots in either points per game or overall points.

Dennis Michelsen: And he was TE2 last year in total points because so many injuries occurred.

Dennis Michelsen: If you look at the gap between McBride and Pitts, it was about the same as it was the year before, when Pitts was more of a middling TE6 or TE7 type.

Dennis Michelsen: With Pitts, it is all about consistency—or the lack of it. He will have four big games every year where he approaches or clears 100 yards.

Dennis Michelsen: That is why I like Pitts better in best ball than in redraft. I move him up a couple of rounds in best ball because I do not have to predict which weeks he will hit.

Dennis Michelsen: If I get Pitts, I can pair him with Hunter Henry.

Dennis Michelsen: Or Mark Andrews. Maybe Oronde Gadsden, or maybe T.J. Hockenson comes back to life. There are several tight ends with upside.

Dennis Michelsen: If I get Pitts at a reasonable point, I can come back with Kelce and even add Hunter Henry. In best ball, that gives me three usable tight ends.

Dennis Michelsen: The fun part is that if two of them have a good week at the same time, one can score in the flex. That is why I like three-tight-end builds in best ball.

Dennis Michelsen: If all three score a touchdown in the same week, then your two flex spots may be solved for that week because tight ends are so touchdown dependent.

Dennis Michelsen: In redraft, though, it is very tough to know when Pitts is going to have a bad week.

Dennis Michelsen: And when he has a bad week, it is a real bad week. He had five games under five points.

Dennis Michelsen: He also had five games over 15 points.

Dennis Michelsen: To me, that is not the tight end I want in redraft, especially when he is going so early in drafts, and you must spend premium capital.

Dennis Michelsen: Pitts is going earlier than Tucker Kraft. I would rather have Kraft or Harold Fannin Jr.

Dennis Michelsen: He is going in the middle of the fifth round in FFPC, and that is way too early for me.

Dennis Michelsen: If he drops to the seventh or eighth round, then it becomes a different discussion.

Dennis Michelsen: Our secret sauce will help us judge how valuable that drop is. I am not telling people the secret sauce, just saying.

Dennis Michelsen: That is how we gain an edge. Well, Professor, it is always great talking with you. I do love comparing this Vegas prop data.

John Bush: It is good because it gives you something to think about. Folks, I do not bet a lot. I may have a $100 bankroll for the season.

John Bush: That is it. I expect to lose all of it because I get crazy with parlays.

John Bush: I like props because they make me think.

John Bush: What Dennis just took us through is the lesson. That is the process I like, and that is why I use props as a thinking tool. That is how you should use them, in my opinion, and that is why I share them with our readers.

John Bush: I will get the other prop sections out. I just have not had time to do that yet, Dennis.

Dennis Michelsen: No, very good data indeed, so head over to thescienceoffantasyfootball.com, check out the prop data that the Professor's talking about.

Dennis Michelsen: Quarterbacks are up. Look at that data. A lot of very interesting discussions that the Professor has had with Grok.

Dennis Michelsen: So you want to check out the whole AI series that the Professor has posted again.

Dennis Michelsen: It will get you thinking in ways you might not already be thinking. I will have my What If article coming, and I will also have player-versus-player articles. I know Professor has loved those the last couple of years.

Dennis Michelsen: They will be coming.

Dennis Michelsen: Ooh, very good. Well, we'll discuss that, and head back here next week for another edition of the Science of Fantasy Football.

John Bush: Get to work, folks.