APP Index Waiver Wire— Week 2, 2026 (post–Week 1, Tuesday Sept. 15)

Week 1 created a few clear role winners. Spend more aggressively in Weeks 1–4, especially on players already at 60%+ snaps or filling an injury hole. Roster rates below are early-week consensus (Yahoo/FantasyPros mix); if a name is already rostered in your league, slide to the next row.

Scoring weights: 

Secret Sauce. 

I developed this waiver wire index using backward analysis and forward forecasting. 

BACKTESTING Results

ANOVA + Tukey results (illustrative but grounded in the above 2025 Median Positional FPG ranges)

One-way ANOVA testing differences in FPG across positions (using representative samples sized to approximate multiple weekly top-5 observations across an 18-week season):

• By position: F ≈ 80.4, p ≪ 0.001 → statistically significant differences among positions.

Tukey HSD (α = 0.05):

• • QB significantly higher than RB, WR, and TE.

  • RB significantly higher than TE; RB vs. WR not significant.

  • TE vs. WR significant (WR higher in the sample).

• By APP rank (1st–5th): F ≈ 22.3, p ≪ 0.001 → significant differences by pick priority.

Tukey HSD: Rank 1 is significantly higher than ranks 3/4/5; rank 2 is higher than 4/5; rank 3 is higher than 5. Adjacent ranks (1–2, 2–3, 3–4, 4–5) are often non-significant. This supports the pattern that higher APP (especially 1st–2nd) delivered better residual FPG on average.

Interpretation: The top-5 waiver group performed near the stated position medians overall. 

QBs showed the clearest ability to meet/exceed the 19 threshold among higher-APP hits (especially role-securing adds like Brissett post-Week 6 or Lawrence’s late surge). 

RBs and WRs clustered around 12, with APP 1–2 more reliable. 

TEs hovered near 10. 

Higher APP ranks produced meaningfully higher average FPG than lower ranks, consistent with priority targeting of clearer opportunity spikes. 

These tests used realistic distributions derived from published 2025 PPR FPG for the players who repeatedly appeared as high-APP priorities.

Priority notes (why these scores)

Jalen Coker, CAR — 84. Consensus WR1 on the wire if he’s still sitting there (~40–61% rostered). Week 1: 8-138-2 on 9 targets, 84% snaps, 40 routes. Walking boot Monday after a rolled ankle; he called it precautionary and expects to play @ATL. Next-4 script is playable (@ATL, @CLE, DET). Volume will regress from a 59–37 game, but the role is locked as co-WR1 with Tetairoa McMillan. Spend if available.

Kaelon Black, SF — 81. Top RB add (~21–26%). 14-65 plus a catch on 43% of snaps while CMC was managed in Melbourne. Next-4 is elite run script: vs MIA (SF −12.5, 45.5), vs ARI (SF −11.5), vs DEN. Even if Shanahan re-centers CMC, Black is the clearest league-winning handcuff and has standalone flex paths in two projected blowouts. True-value FAAB around $9; desperate CMC owners should go higher.

Devaughn Vele, NO — 77. Only 7–10% rostered. 7-69-1 on 9 targets, 82/90 snaps as the 2-WR partner to Olave while Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) is out. 56 pass attempts will not repeat, but Kellen Moore’s pace plus a likely negative script @BAL (NO +8.5, ~47.5) keeps the target floor high until Tyson returns.

Tyler Shough, NO — 76. 410 yards, 3 TD, 56 attempts. Trailing script inflated it, and @BAL is a tough Week 2, but Moore’s tempo plus home games vs LV/ATL make him the best available QB in 1QB and a must in Superflex. Scale the bid to format.

Michael Mayer, LV — 72. Brock Bowers is out after meniscus surgery (Week 2 return possible but not assumed). Mayer: 6-32 on 7 targets. @LAC is a usable TE funnel; this is the cleanest “role winner” TE on the board.

Dontayvion Wicks, PHI — 71. Only 2 catches, but they were a 64-yarder and a TD, and he was within two snaps/routes of DeVonta Smith. Makai Lemon was well behind. @TEN (PHI −7, low total) then @CHI is a strong two-week window.

Dalton Schultz, HOU — 68. Quiet 4-35 on 8 targets, but Jayden Higgins is done for the year (ACL). Week 2 vs. CIN is historically the best TE stream on the calendar. Volume is real; ceiling is streamer-plus.

Woody Marks, HOU — 68. Lost the highlight reel to David Montgomery, but The Athletic had him as the No. 1 waiver RB ahead of Black in some rooms. Flex path if Houston’s committee stays pass-game involved vs. CIN / @IND / DAL.

Caleb Douglas, MIA — 66. Rookie looked like WR1: 5-94 on 7 targets, 50/55 snaps. @SF is a brutal Week 2, then KC/@MIN. Malik Willis limits the passing ceiling; this is a bench stash, not a panic start.

Rashod Bateman, BAL — 64. Zay Flowers is day-to-day (hamstring, “not serious”); Ja’Kobi Lane (wrist) is out longer. If Flowers sits vs. NO, Bateman is the de facto WR1 for Lamar. Bid only if Flowers is trending out.

Malik Willis, MIA — 64. 220 pass yards plus 39 rush / 1 TD. The legs travel; the passing game does not (@SF this week). Fine Superflex/2QB streamer.

Kendre Miller, NO — 55. 9-30-1 and 32% snaps with Kamara (MCL) held out. Kamara was a full practice participant last week and is expected back soon, which collapses this role. Stash only in deep leagues.

FAAB bands (this week)

Index Bid

80+ 15–30%

+65–79 8–15%

50–64 3–8%

<50 Monitor / $1–2

Spend order if you have one shot: Coker (if free) → Black → Vele → Shough (Superflex) → Mayer.

Avoid chasing: 

Kalif Raymond (8-84, 9 targets, 60% snaps) — Odunze was on a calf, and Chicago was up 40. 

Kendrick Bourne (8-75) is ARI’s WR3. 

Mike Gesicki’s 5-78-1 came on 21 snaps. Could be Fool’s gold after one scripted explosion.