Filtering the Noise in Fantasy Football 

by Dennis Michelsen @DMICMEDIA

Each day, social media, sports radio, and TV bombard us with opinions about players. Film clips from training camp when nobody is allowed to really tackle in some drills are the worst. But preseason highlight plays are just as bad unless you break down the strength of the defense that was on the field. I am more impressed with good ball security and good blocks than I am with some 40-yard run past future shoe salesmen at Dick’s Sporting Goods. Today I have some advice on how to filter the noise and make it work for you in Fantasy Football. 

Only Trust the Trusted Sources

Each year we always fall for the “Rising Rookie” trick that NFL teams pull off on our Fantasy Football teams every season. Remember the guy they call BILL last year? He was a great value before training camp, and once preseason started, he exploded on the scene. A solid WHY NOT value in the 12th round turned into an overpriced gimmick in the 6th round that ended up costing you wins in Fantasy Football. When you see someone touting that new rookie sensation, check on the source. 

I put more stock in something Jim Coventry or Greg Kellog says than some Chiefs fan who is suddenly touting Cyrus Allen as the WR to own in Fantasy Football from KC. Allen might be good, or he might be a complete flop; he has no track record in real NFL games regardless of being popular with Patrick Mahomes. He is worth a late flyer, but if he suddenly moves from the last few rounds to the 10th round, then it's buyer beware. Trust the source and demand something of a track record on someone if you are drafting him in the top 120 picks in your Fantasy Football draft. 

Remember the Injuries We Didn’t Hear About?

If the NFL rumor market is so great, how did they miss on Christian McCaffrey two years ago and then not understand he was now perfectly fine for last year? We get complete coverage, including injury coverage 24/7 each day of the year in the NFL, but we don’t get the news we need. Don’t trust someone who claims to be an expert because he once sprained his knee; that is an injury that takes months, not weeks, to recover from. Highly conditioned athletes get over minor injuries better than your Uncle Phil, the Weekend Tennis player. 

Even trusting past performances for players with the same injury type isn’t a great database for predicting the future. If your database focuses on how fast a player has come back from knee surgery over the past 20 years, you may want to shorten that timeframe, since sports medicine and rehab have improved significantly in the past 5 to 10 years. Also, no two injuries are the same. The damage done in any injury is different, so it makes sense that each player might respond to injuries in different ways. Guidelines and trusted experts’ opinions matter, but sometimes a team’s reaction to the injury means more. Did they suddenly sign 2 guys to come in and try out for that position? If they did that, the team is worried, and you should be worried too. 

Injury Discounts in Drafts

Quite often, minor injuries get played up as more serious in the Fantasy Football world. Anyone who has played football since they were a kid will have a less-than-perfect body by the time they play in the NFL. The Rome Odunze foot issue is a prime example. This isn't a new injury, but it may have discounted his draft price. I was already concerned about Jordyn Tyson's injury history, which is why I thought the 7th round was a bit early for an unproven rookie. But if his latest hamstring issue drops him to the 9th or 10th round, his value rises. 

Yes, nagging injuries can get more worrisome, but don’t get caught up in the overhype and take the discount instead when a player is drafted after round 8. In the first few rounds of a draft, I worry more about injuries than in the later rounds. 

Dynasty Tip: Watch Your Waivers

Every preseason, some rookie you have never heard of posts a big run for the highlight reels or has a game with gaudy statistics. These players with no path to opportunity in the real season often get picked up in Dynasty league waiver wires as soon as they do anything great. Players who get dropped often have better volume upside than the rookie who got picked up. In a recent league that is only moderately deep, Malik Davis is my weakest player, rostered in only 32% of Sleeper leagues; someone picked up Dean Connors and waived Isiah Bond. This is rather ironic since Bond was one of the hot guys from last year’s preseason. 

Connors has 3 RBs ahead of him in the pecking order and is just hoping to make the team. Sure, he could land on another roster where he has a better opportunity, but Bond also has a solid chance to be among the top 3 WRs for his team. If you watch the waiver wires, you can sometimes find guys who are better options for your team than your weakest link. 

Conclusion

Each piece of news coming out of camp is one data point to consider in Fantasy Football. Would you throw out a 100-game record of solid performance and get worried about one bad game with a player? Of course, the answer is no, but each year we seem to fall for this trap of letting the noise change our opinion on players. 

Last year at this time, I was guilty of that too, letting the noise change my opinion of guys like Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey, which my data told me were overpriced by about 15-20 spots. I fell for the noise trap, but never again, and that’s why I am here to warn you, so you can learn from my lesson and filter the noise smarter. It is just one more data point to consider.