by Dennis Michelsen @DMICMEDIA on X 

AFC Article — Executive Summary + Full Team Breakdowns

Executive Summary

The AFC landscape entering the 2026 fantasy season is defined by coaching turnover, quarterback volatility, and several offenses on the brink of major identity shifts. Across the conference, the “WHAT IF” lens reveals undervalued breakout candidates such as James Cook, Quinshon Judkins, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, and Kenneth Walker III. 

Many AFC teams also feature ambiguous backfields or aging veterans whose performance swings could dramatically alter fantasy outcomes. By isolating each team’s most meaningful hypothetical scenario, fantasy managers can identify late‑round upside plays and avoid inflated ADPs tied to uncertain situations.

AFC Teams

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens begin a new era after moving on from John Harbaugh. Most offensive pieces return except TE Isiah Likely, and Mark Andrews enters his age‑30 season following the worst statistical year of his career.

WHAT IF:  

“What if Andrews returns close to his previous form?”

Last year his MVP Index bottomed out at 0 (TE>40), but he previously hit 60+ (TE4) for five straight seasons, including a career‑high 100 (TE2). Forecast: 40 (TE10) with upside to 90 (TE2). Andrews is a value at TE14 in the 9th round.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills replaced Sean McDermott with last year’s offensive coordinator and added veteran WR DJ Moore. The offense’s identity will reveal whether the OC or HC was truly driving scheme design.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF RB James Cook gets used more in the passing game this season?”

Cook posted a 131 MVP Index (RB3) despite only 33 receptions. Forecast: 115 (RB6) with upside to 135 (RB2). Strong value at RB6 at the 1st/2nd‑round turn.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals return their coaching staff intact, but Joe Burrow’s health remains the defining variable after he played only seven full games last season.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF Joe Burrow plays all 17 games this year?”

Chase Brown’s MVP jumped from 100 overall to 129 (RB3) with Burrow. Forecast: 100 (RB12.5) with upside to 130 (RB2.5). Value at RB8 (pick 16).

Cleveland Browns

The Browns continue their cycle of coaching changes and QB uncertainty. They added two rookie WRs and retain strong RB/TE talent.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF either DeShaun Watson or Shedeur Sanders end up being better than average?”

Quinshon Judkins posted a 57 MVP (RB29) but a Best‑8 of 125 (RB3.5). Forecast: 80 (RB19.5) with upside to 120 (RB4.5). Value at RB21 (pick 50).

Denver Broncos

Bo Nix enters year three after posting a 77 MVP (QB12) with a Best‑8 of 150 (QB1). The team added Jaylen Waddle and RB depth.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF Bo Nix removes his occasional inconsistent games…?”

Forecast: 85 (QB10) with upside to 100 (QB6.5). Value at QB14 (pick 140).

Houston Texans

The Texans leaned heavily on defense and the run game last year, but no RB hit 75 rushing yards in a regular‑season game.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF David Montgomery can handle 15–20 touches per game all season?”

Montgomery posted 90 (RB14.5) in 10 full games. Forecast: 80 (RB19.5) with upside to 115 (RB6). Value at RB20 (pick 47).

Indianapolis Colts

Daniel Jones shocked the league last year, elevating Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren when healthy.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF we see a healthy and productive Daniel Jones this season?”

JT hit 142 (RB2) with Jones. Warren hit 67 (TE3). If Jones repeats, both outperform ADP. Rookie WR Deion Burks is a free late‑round upside play.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence has two seasons at 94 MVP (QB8) and now inherits a deeper WR room with Travis Hunter healthy.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF the replacements at RB are not as good as Etienne… and the Jaguars need to pass more?”

Forecast: 100 (QB6.5) with QB4 upside. Value at QB8 around pick 110.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs collapsed last season, prompting Travis Kelce’s return and the addition of Kenneth Walker III.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF the return of Eric Bienemy… has a big impact on this offense?”

Mahomes previously hit 141 (QB1) under EB. Kelce hit 129 (TE1). Mahomes is a bargain at QB13 (pick 133); Kelce at TE11 (pick 82).

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders rebuilt their offensive line but still lack WR depth. Rookie QB Fernando Mendoza may start sooner than expected.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF Mendoza turns out to be really good and that offense improves into the Top 15?”

Jeanty could outperform RB14 and approach RB3 upside. Bowers could deliver “Kelce in his prime” production.

Los Angeles Chargers

Mike McDaniel arrives as OC, bringing a history of elite RB production.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF McDaniel is the greatest offensive mind of this era?”

Herbert’s forecast: 85 (QB10) with QB5 upside. Hampton has RB4 upside at RB7 ADP.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins rebuild around Malik Willis and OC Bobby Slowik.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF the new regime does a great job and Willis lives up to his former first‑round capital?”

Achane has back‑to‑back 131 MVP (RB2). Forecast: 120 (RB4.5) with RB1 upside.

New England Patriots

Drake Maye enters year three after a 31‑TD season. AJ Brown joins a strong RB/TE core.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF TreyVeon Henderson gains his coach’s trust and gets heavier volume?”

Forecast: 75 (RB21) with RB5 upside. Stevenson remains a value two rounds later.

New York Jets

The Jets added talent but still lack a strong QB and have OL concerns.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF the Jets defense gets good and they establish a solid running game?”

Breece Hall forecast: 80 (RB19.5) with RB4 upside. Garrett Wilson forecast: 100 (WR10.5) with WR3 upside.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers reunites with Mike McCarthy for one final season.

WHAT IF:  

“WHAT IF Rodgers has one more solid season… and Michael Pittman is the perfect WR for him?”

Forecast: 75 (WR24) with WR10 upside. Value at WR38.

Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward enters year two with a new staff, improved OL, and added weapons.

WHAT IF:  

“What IF the Titans offense turns things around this season?”

Carnel Tate forecast: 70 (WR26.5) with WR12 upside. Nicholas Singleton is a premium late‑round upside RB.

🏈 AFC Draft‑Day Cheat Sheet

🔥 Best Values by Position

• QB: Trevor Lawrence — QB8 price, QB4 upside

• RB: James Cook — RB6 price, RB2 upside

• RB: Quinshon Judkins — RB21 price, RB4 upside

• RB: David Montgomery — RB20 price, RB6 upside

• WR: Garrett Wilson — WR16 price, WR3 upside

• TE: Mark Andrews — TE14 price, TE2 upside

• TE: Travis Kelce — TE11 price, TE1 upside

🚀 Deep‑Round Upside Targets

• Deion Burks — free square

• Kaytron Allen — free square

• Fernando Mendoza — likely starter sooner than expected

Summary Table: Last Season MVP, Forecast MVP, and Upside MVP