GSPI (Game Script Predictive Index)

2026 NFL Week 2 — Thursday, Sept. 17 through Monday, Sept. 21

The GSPI (Game Script Predictive Index) attempts to project passing and rushing levels to support understanding of team and player props. This slate is treated in SCRIPT-PRIMARY mode: regular-season Week 2 with expected starters in most buildings, and personnel used as a cap when a live quarterback or rest flag is unclear. 

The week opens Thursday at the new Highmark Stadium (Lions at Bills), includes Sunday Night Football at Arrowhead (Colts at Chiefs), and closes Monday night in Los Angeles (Giants at Rams). 

There are no confirmed starter-rest DNPs league-wide; the live-unit flags that matter are Kyler Murray (concussion protocol), Sam Darnold (lower body, Lock expected), A.J. Brown (IR), and Atlanta’s unresolved quarterback room. Weather tails are limited to Soldier Field wind, a Mets-area rain watch for Packers–Jets, and altitude in Denver. 

Last week’s headline-script record: 4 Hits / 1 Miss / 1 Inversion (6 of 6 headline scripts).

Week 1 EPA/play is a one-game sample. Minnesota’s figure mixes Murray and Wentz; Seattle’s figure is Darnold’s unit, not Lock’s. Atlanta’s figure is Tua’s Week 1 start and is not treated as a locked live offense.

Strong labels are reserved for two-score environments with a confirmed live quarterback. Chicago and Seattle are capped at Mild because the opposing (MIN) or own (SEA) quarterback is not the Week 1 EPA unit. Atlanta stays Neutral while the starter is Unknown.

3. Betting & Volume Summary

4. Official Preseason/Regular-Season Depth Charts (Relevant Snaps)

Sixteen-game slate: compressed for all games; expanded for Strong labels, High confidence, or heavy rest. SCRIPT-PRIMARY is the default. Personnel outranks script only where the live quarterback is Expected DNP or Unknown (MIN, SEA, ATL).

Expanded

San Francisco 49ers (Strong Positive, High)

QB Brock Purdy (full). RB Christian McCaffrey (bulk). WR1 expected. Token/DNP: none among skill starters. Snap window: starters expected all game in a two-score home environment.

Miami Dolphins (Strong Negative, High)

QB Malik Willis (full). RB De’Von Achane (bulk). WR room in flux; Willis is the live unit. Snap window: passing volume rises if trailing; rushing leverage falls after Q1 if the spread holds.

Baltimore Ravens (Strong Positive, High)

QB Lamar Jackson (full). RB Derrick Henry (bulk). WR Zay Flowers Questionable; Rashod Bateman next. TE Mark Andrews in. Snap window: Henry featured early and in closeout; Flowers must be confirmed before WR props.

New Orleans Saints (Strong Negative, High)

QB Tyler Shough (full). Skill starters expected. Snap window: pass-leaning if down two scores; evaluation-to-catch-up snaps after Q1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Strong Positive, High)

QB Baker Mayfield (full). RB1 expected. Snap window: rush closeout if the 8.5-point spread holds.

Cleveland Browns (Strong Negative, High)

QB Deshaun Watson (full). Skill starters expected. Snap window: pass-catch-up after Q1 in a two-score road underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles (Strong Positive, High)

QB Jalen Hurts (full). RB Saquon Barkley (bulk). WR DeVonta Smith in. TE Dallas Goedert in. Snap window: tush-push and rush closeout available if PHI leads by two scores.

Tennessee Titans (Strong Negative, High)

QB Cam Ward (full). Skill starters expected. Snap window: pass-leaning underdog; short game total caps both sides.

Chicago Bears (Mild Positive, Medium) — rest-adjacent

QB Caleb Williams (full). RB D’Andre Swift (bulk). WR Rome Odunze Questionable. Snap window: live starters; wind is secondary.

Minnesota Vikings (Mild Negative, Medium) — heavy rest at QB

QB Kyler Murray expected DNP (concussion protocol). Live QB Carson Wentz. RB Jordan Mason Questionable; Aaron Jones next. WR Justin Jefferson in. Personnel outranks script here: Wentz is the unit, not the Week 1 Murray sample.

Seattle Seahawks (Mild Positive, Medium) — heavy rest at QB

QB Sam Darnold Expected DNP. Live QB Drew Lock. Skill starters otherwise expected. Personnel outranks script: do not treat Seattle’s Week 1 EPA as Lock’s offense. Label stays Mild.

Atlanta Falcons (Neutral, Low) — Unknown QB

QB Tua Tagovailoa Questionable (oblique); Michael Penix Jr. Questionable (knee); Cooper Rush is the named backup. RB Bijan Robinson (bulk). Neutral is required until the starter is posted.

Compressed remainder

BUF: Allen / James Cook–Ray Davis / DJ Moore–Keon Coleman–Khalil Shakir / Dalton Kincaid. DET: Goff / Jahmyr Gibbs (Pacheco Out) / Amon-Ra St. Brown–Jameson Williams / Sam LaPorta. 

CAR: Bryce Young / RB1 minus Trevor Etienne (Out) / Jalen Coker Q. 

NE: Drake Maye / Rhamondre Stevenson / Romeo Doubs–DeMario Douglas (A.J. Brown IR) / Hunter Henry. PIT: Aaron Rodgers / RB1 expected.

NYJ: Geno Smith / Breece Hall / Garrett Wilson. GB: Jordan Love / Jordan Mason usage watch vs. NYJ. HOU: C.J. Stroud. 

CIN: Joe Burrow / Ja’Marr Chase expected. DEN: Bo Nix / RB1 expected. JAX: Trevor Lawrence. 

LAC: Justin Herbert / Ladd McConkey Q. LV: Kirk Cousins / Ashton Jeanty / Brock Bowers monitoring. ARI: Jacoby Brissett / Trey McBride. 

DAL: Dak Prescott / Javonte Williams (thin RB room). WAS: Jayden Daniels / Terry McLaurin / Jacory Croskey-Merritt Q. 

KC: Patrick Mahomes / RB1 expected / Travis Kelce. 

IND: Daniel Jones / Jonathan Taylor. 

LAR: Matthew Stafford / Puka Nacua–Kyren Williams expected; Myles Garrett Out on defense. 

NYG: Jaxson Dart / Cam Skattebo featured Week 1.

5. Script Impact on Player Props

A. Effects by script type

Strong / Mild Positive

RB: elevated rush attempts, goal-line share, and late-game kneel/closeout work. 

QB: fewer dropbacks, more designed keepers only if that is already the player’s profile; passing yards and pass TD leverage compress. 

WR/TE: target volume thins unless the player is the clear red-zone option on a short field.

Neutral

Volume follows base play-calling and implied totals. 

Do not pay a script premium or discount. 

Props live or die on snap share and matchup.

Strong / Mild Negative

RB: rush attempts fall; receiving work can rise if the back is a checkdown. QB: dropbacks and passing yards rise; sack and interception variance also rise. 

WR/TE: routes and targets increase, especially after Q1 if the deficit is two scores.

B. Decision Framework

Apply GSPI direction only to players confirmed or highly likely to play meaningful series. 

Discount any prop tied to a locked starter expected to rest. 

In PERSONNEL-PRIMARY conflicts this week (Minnesota, Seattle, Atlanta), snap share first, script second. 

Prefer Strong labels only when Confidence is Medium or High. Weather is a secondary adjustment.

C. Highest-Conviction Prop Angles for the week

1. Christian McCaffrey, SF, Strong Positive, bulk RB snaps with Purdy in and a two-score home script.

2. Derrick Henry, BAL, Strong Positive, bulk early-down and closeout snaps with Lamar in.

3. Saquon Barkley, PHI, Strong Positive, bulk RB snaps against Tennessee’s implied 16.3-point unit.

4. De’Von Achane, MIA, Strong Negative, receiving-snap assumption if Willis trails in the second half.

5. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, Mild Negative, three-down snaps with Pacheco Out; script is only a mild drag.

6. Carson Wentz, MIN, Mild Negative, expected starter snaps with Murray DNP; pass volume first, script second.

7. Drew Lock, SEA, Mild Positive, expected starter snaps with Darnold DNP; do not fade pass volume solely on the Mild Positive label.

8. Jonathan Taylor, IND, Mild Negative, featured snaps in a road underdog at Arrowhead.

9. Breece Hall, NYJ, Mild Negative, three-down snaps; rain watch is secondary to the pass-up script.

10. Baker Mayfield, TB, Strong Positive, starter snaps in a two-score home favorite; pass volume compresses if TB leads late.

6. Strongest Scripts of the Week

Three strongest positive-script teams

1. San Francisco 49ers — Strong Positive, High — Rush ×1.20 / Pass ×0.86

2. Baltimore Ravens — Strong Positive, High — Rush ×1.18 / Pass ×0.88

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Strong Positive, High — Rush ×1.18 / Pass ×0.88

Philadelphia also carries Strong Positive / High (Rush ×1.18 / Pass ×0.88) and sits immediately behind this group on implied-total gap.

Three strongest negative-script teams

1. Miami Dolphins — Strong Negative, High — Rush ×0.80 / Pass ×1.18

2. Cleveland Browns — Strong Negative, High — Rush ×0.82 / Pass ×1.16

3. Tennessee Titans — Strong Negative, High — Rush ×0.82 / Pass ×1.16

New Orleans is the fourth Strong Negative / High unit (Rush ×0.82 / Pass ×1.16).

Blowout Watch
San Francisco–Miami is already in the headline six; the 13-point implied gap is the slate’s widest and can run larger than the other Strong games if Willis’s unit stalls. Chicago–Minnesota can become more lopsided than a Mild label implies if Murray is officially out and Wentz is forced into a negative script against the league’s Week 1 EPA leader — personnel first, which is why CHI was capped at Mild for the headline six. Atlanta–Carolina is not a blowout watch until a quarterback is posted.

None of the capped Mild teams (CHI, SEA) are listed among the six headline Strong sides.

These materials are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not intended as betting or financial advice.

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