Latest Vegas Props vs ADP

Executive Summary

• Vegas season-long props (as of mid-August 2026, primarily via WinWithOdds projections built from sportsbook lines) and PPR ADP (consensus from FantasyPros, 4for4, RotoWire, DIRECTV aggregates, etc.) are broadly aligned at the very top of each position, but clear gaps appear in the mid-to-late rounds.

• Dual-threat QBs (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts) show elevated rushing props that support their early ADP; pure pocket passers with high yardage/TD lines (Goff, Stafford, Burrow, Prescott) are often drafted later than pure production implies.

• Elite RBs (Gibbs, Bijan, CMC, Taylor) have props that match or exceed their top-12 ADP; several mid-tier backs (e.g., certain volume backs with 900–1,100 rushing yards + receiving work) trade at ADP worse than prop production suggests.

• Top WRs (Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, JSN, Amon-Ra) have 1,250–1,400+ receiving-yard lines that justify first-round ADP; some secondary options with solid reception/TD props appear undervalued relative to ADP.

• TE market is thinner; Brock Bowers / Trey McBride props and ADP are tightly linked, while later TEs show more variance between reception/yard lines and draft cost.

• Biggest cross-positional themes: Over-lean opportunities where high prop production meets later ADP (fantasy value + betting Over); Under leans where early ADP outpaces what props imply (fantasy fade). Data remains fluid as training camp and preseason continue.

• Limitations: Full 60-player depth requires continuous book updates; some secondary props are sparse; ADP varies slightly by platform (ESPN/Yahoo/Sleeper/Underdog consensus used).

QB Analysis (Top ~36 QBs)

Props focused on passing yards / TDs + rushing contribution. Grouping based on comparing prop-implied fantasy production (pass yards + TDs + rush yards/TDs) against overall PPR ADP / positional rank. Sorted Group 1 → 2 → 3, then ADP ascending within group.

Player,Team,Main_Prop,Prop_Line,Book,PPR_ADP_Overall,PPR_ADP_Pos_Rank,Group,Discrepancy_Notes,Analysis_Summary

Josh Allen, BUF, Pass Yds / Rush Yds,3624.5 / 499.5, WinWithOdds/DK,28, QB1,3, Dual-threat props match elite ADP, Elite production floor; markets aligned

Lamar Jackson, BAL, Pass Yds / Rush Yds,3249.5 / 599.5, WinWithOdds,51, QB2,3, High rush props support ADP, Rushing upside priced in

Drake Maye, NE, Pass Yds / Pass TDs,3799.5 / 26.5, WinWithOdds,59, QB3,3,Strong yardage line fits rising ADP, Volume expected; close

Joe Burrow, CIN, Pass Yds / Pass TDs,3999.5 / 32.5, WinWithOdds,61, QB4,3, Elite TD/yard props match ADP, High-end pocket passer priced fairly

Jayden Daniels,WAS, Pass Yds / Rush Yds,3249.5 / 549.5, WinWithOdds,65, QB5,3, Rush-heavy props support early ADP, Dual threat justified

Jalen Hurts,PHI,Pass Yds / Rush TDs,3249.5 / 8.5, WinWithOdds,68,QB6,3,Rush TD props key to value, Aligned on dual threat

Caleb Williams, CHI, Pass Yds,3649.5, WinWithOdds,71, QB7,3, Solid yardage fits ADP, Close to expected

Dak Prescott, DAL, Pass Yds / Pass TDs,3999.5 / 27.5, WinWithOdds,78, QB8,3, High volume props support mid-QB ADP, Fair

Justin Herbert,LAC, Pass Yds,3650.5, WinWithOdds,83, QB9,3, Consistent line matches ADP, Aligned

Trevor Lawrence, JAX, Pass Yds,3774.5, WinWithOdds,84, QB10,3, Strong yardage props fit, Close

Jaxson Dart, NYG, Pass Yds / Rush Yds,3150.5 / 449.5, WinWithOdds,95, QB11,1, Rush props higher than mid ADP implies, Potential value / Over lean on total production

Matthew Stafford, LAR, Pass Yds / Pass TDs,3949.5 / 30.5, WinWithOdds/FOX,99, QB12,2, Elite yard/TD props but ADP later than pure volume suggests? Wait adjusted: actually close-to-slightly later,High volume may be under-drafted relative to lines

Brock Purdy, SF, Pass Yds / Pass TDs,3799.5 / 27.5, WinWithOdds,100, QB13,3, Solid props fit ADP range, Aligned

Patrick Mahomes, KC, Pass Yds,3649.5, WinWithOdds,104, QB14,3, Standard line matches later ADP, Close

Bo Nix, DEN, Pass Yds,3499.5,WinWithOdds,107,QB15,3, Modest line fits ADP,Aligned

Jared Goff, DET, Pass Yds / Pass TDs,4099.5 / 29.5, WinWithOdds/FOX,117, QB16,1, Highest yard line among many yet later ADP, Strong Over lean candidate; fantasy value

Kyler Murray, MIN, Pass Yds / Rush Yds,3049.5 / 488,WinWithOdds,122, QB17,3, Rush props help justify, Close

Baker Mayfield, TB, Pass Yds,3599.5, WinWithOdds,126, QB18,3, Solid mid-tier line, Aligned

Jordan Love, GB, Pass Yds,3549.5, WinWithOdds,129, QB19,3, Average props fit,Close

Tyler Shough, NO, Pass Yds,3449.5,WinWithOdds,132, QB20,3, Modest line matches ADP, Aligned

Malik Willis, MIA, Pass Yds / Rush Yds,2949.5 / 549.5, WinWithOdds,139, QB21,1, High rush props vs later ADP, Value on dual threat

C.J. Stroud, HOU, Pass Yds,3549.5,WinWithOdds,152, QB23,3, Standard, Close

Sam Darnold, SEA, Pass Yds,3699.5, WinWithOdds,155, QB24,1, Higher yard line than ADP rank implies,Potential Over/fantasy target

Cam Ward, TEN, Pass Yds,3299.5, WinWithOdds,172, QB25,3, Rookie/early line fits,Aligned

Bryce Young, CAR, Pass Yds,2924.5,WinWithOdds,177, QB26,3, Lower line matches later ADP, Close

Aaron Rodgers, PIT, Pass Yds,3149.5, WinWithOdds,211, QB28,3, Age-adjusted line, Aligned

(Additional lower QBs follow similar patterns; data limited beyond ~QB30. Group 1 emphasizes cases where prop production exceeds ADP expectation.)

RB Analysis (Top ~60 RBs)

Main props: Rushing yards, receiving yards, total TDs. Grouping vs. PPR ADP. 

(Top 20–30 shown; lower RBs often Group 3 or 1 where volume props exceed ADP. Full 60 limited by prop availability.)

Player,Team,Main_Prop,Prop_Line,Book,PPR_ADP_Overall,PPR_ADP_Pos_Rank,Group,Discrepancy_Notes,Analysis_Summary

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET, Rush Yds / Rec Yds / Rush TDs,1199.5 / 449.5 / 12.5, WinWithOdds,1-2, RB1,3, Elite multi-category props match #1 ADP, Markets fully aligned

Bijan Robinson, ATL, Rush Yds / Rec Yds,1174.5 / 574.5, WinWithOdds,2-4, RB2,3, High volume props fit, Aligned

Christian McCaffrey, SF, Rush Yds / Rec Yds,949.5 / 574.5, WinWithOdds,6-9, RB3,3, Receiving props support early ADP, Close

Jonathan Taylor, IND, Rush Yds / Rush TDs,1224.5 / 11.5, WinWithOdds,11, RB4,3, Heavy rush props match, Aligned

James Cook, BUF, Rush Yds,1224.5, WinWithOdds,~10-16, RB7,3, Strong rush line fits, Close

Ashton Jeanty, LV, Rush Yds / Rec Yds,974.5 / 383, WinWithOdds,~13, RB5,3, Balanced props support,Aligned

De'Von Achane, MIA, Rush Yds / Rec Yds,974.5 / 416, WinWithOdds,~21, RB8,3, Receiving upside priced, Close

Saquon Barkley, PHI, Rush Yds,1099.5, WinWithOdds,~24, RB9,3, Solid rush props fit mid-RB ADP, Aligned

Derrick Henry, BAL, Rush Yds / Rush TDs,1249.5 / 12.5, WinWithOdds,~37, RB12,2, Elite rush/TD props but later ADP than pure volume implies? Slight Under lean possible on ADP premium, Volume high but ADP may overvalue slightly relative to age/committee risk

Chase Brown, CIN, Rush Yds / Rec Yds,849.5 / 417, WinWithOdds,~15, RB6,3, Receiving props help, Close

Kenneth Walker, KC, Rush Yds,949.5, WinWithOdds,~28, RB11,3, Standard, Aligned

Kyren Williams, LAR, Rush Yds,949.5, WinWithOdds,~42, RB15,3, Close

Josh Jacobs, GB, Rush Yds,918, WinWithOdds,~43, RB16,3, Aligned

Javonte Williams, DAL, Rush Yds / Rush TDs,949.5 / 9.5, WinWithOdds,~45, RB17,1, TD props stronger than mid ADP, Potential value

Breece Hall, NYJ, Rush Yds,899.5, WinWithOdds,~41, RB14,3, Close

David Montgomery, HOU, Rush Yds,799.5, Various,~61, RB22,1, Some lower lines vs projections; ADP later, Over lean candidates noted in analysis

WR Analysis (Top ~60 WRs)

Main props: Receiving yards, receptions, receiving TDs.

(Additional mid/late WRs frequently Group 1 where 800–950-yard lines meet later ADP.)

Player,Team,Main_Prop,Prop_Line,Book,PPR_ADP_Overall,PPR_ADP_Pos_Rank,Group,Discrepancy_Notes,Analysis_Summary

Ja'Marr Chase, CIN, Rec Yds / Rec TDs,1324.5 / 10.5, WinWithOdds,3, WR1,3, Elite props match #1 WR ADP, Fully aligned

Puka Nacua, LAR, Rec Yds / Rec TDs,1400 / 10, WinWithOdds,4, WR2,3, Highest yard line supports early ADP, Aligned

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA, Rec Yds,1324.5, WinWithOdds,5, WR3,3, Strong volume props fit, Close

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET, Rec Yds / Rec TDs,1249.5 / 9.5, WinWithOdds,7, WR4,3, High reception/TD props, Aligned

CeeDee Lamb, DAL, Rec Yds,1199.5, WinWithOdds,11, WR5,3, Solid, Close

Justin Jefferson, MIN, Rec Yds,1149.5, WinWithOdds,12, WR6,3, Aligned

Drake London, ATL, Rec Yds,1099.5, WinWithOdds,19, WR7,3, Close

A.J. Brown, NE, Rec Yds,1124.5, WinWithOdds,21, WR8,3, Aligned

Nico Collins, HOU, Rec Yds,1074.5, WinWithOdds,22, WR9,3, Close

George Pickens, DAL, Rec Yds,999.5, WinWithOdds,23, WR10,3, Aligned

Rashee Rice, KC, Rec Yds,964, WinWithOdds,26, WR11,3, Close

Malik Nabers, NYG, Rec Yds,1057, WinWithOdds,27, WR12,3, Aligned

Chris Olave, NO, Rec Yds,1024.5, WinWithOdds,29, WR13,3, Close

DeVonta Smith, PHI, Rec Yds,1049.5, WinWithOdds,31, WR14,3, Aligned

Zay Flowers, BAL, Rec Yds,999.5, WinWithOdds,33, WR15,3, Close

Emeka Egbuka, TB, Rec Yds,924.5, WinWithOdds,35, WR16,1, Solid line vs mid ADP; some Over notes, Potential value

Tee Higgins, CIN, Rec TDs,8.5, WinWithOdds,37, WR17,1, High TD prop relative to ADP, Over lean candidate

Garrett Wilson, NYJ, Rec Yds,999.5, WinWithOdds,38, WR18,3, Aligned

TE Analysis (Top ~36 TEs)

Main props: Receiving yards/receptions / TDs (limited specific lines; inferred from overall market).

(Later TEs mostly Group 3 or sparse props.)

Player,Team,Main_Prop,Prop_Line,Book,PPR_ADP_Overall,PPR_ADP_Pos_Rank,Group,Discrepancy_Notes,Analysis_Summary

Brock Bowers, LV, Rec Yds / Rec (inferred high volume),~High, Market,20-38, TE1,3, Elite props match early ADP, Aligned

Trey McBride, ARI, Rec (high volume),~High, Market,24-32, TE2,3, Strong target share priced in, Close

Colston Loveland, CHI, Rec Yds (rising), Mid-high, Market,~40-58, TE3,3, Rookie/volume props fit, Aligned

Tyler Warren, IND, Receptions, O74.5 noted, Various,~46-65, TE4,1, Reception prop vs ADP, Potential Over/value

Tucker Kraft, GB, Rec TDs, O4.5 noted, Various,~73-104, TE5,1, TD prop attractive vs ADP, Over lean

Kyle Pitts, ATL, Rec Yds, Mid, Market,~77-80, TE6,3, Close

Sam LaPorta, DET, Rec Yds, Mid, Market,~72-88, TE8,3, Aligned

Overall Key Takeaways & Recommendations

• Top cross-positional misalignments: Jared Goff / high-yardage pocket passers (Group 1 – props imply more production than ADP); certain mid-RBs with 900+ rush + receiving (value); Tee Higgins / high-TD WRs; Tyler Warren / Tucker Kraft reception/TD props vs. ADP.

• Fantasy draft implications (PPR): Strongest targets (Group 1) – dual-threat or high-volume players with later ADP (e.g., Goff range, select mid RBs/WRs/TEs). Fades (Group 2) – early ADP that outruns prop production (select name-value veterans).

• Betting implications: Lean Over on Group 1 props (yards/TDs where ADP lags production); Under on Group 2 where ADP is aggressive relative to lines. Check live lines (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM) as they move with camp news.

• Monitor: Preseason performances, injury reports, depth-chart clarity (especially RB committees and TE roles), and any line movement. Props and ADP will shift through August/September.

Sources & Caveats

Primary: WinWithOdds season-long prop projections (updated ~Aug 17 2026), FOX Sports QB pass-yard lines, FantasyPros / 4for4 / RotoWire / DIRECTV consensus ADP and rankings (Aug 17 2026), Fantasy Points / BettingPros / RotoWire prop notes, various sportsbook futures mentions.

Data limitations: Not every player has public season-long props for every category; some lines are mid-summer snapshots and move; ADP is platform-consensus and varies; full exact 60-player depth requires live book access. Analysis is an objective comparison of available lines vs. ADP as of the late preseason window. Always verify current odds and ADP before acting.

These materials are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not intended as betting or financial advice.