Effects of Travel Distance and Rest on Pace-Adjusted NFL Offensive Efficiency

Abstract

Using a combined travel + rest dataset for 2020–2025, we quantified the impact of average away travel miles, time zones crossed, short-rest games, and bye-week boosts on our efficiency metric and HA_EFF_Ratio. Short rest emerged as the strongest scheduling negative factor; travel effects were smaller.

Introduction

Scheduling elements such as travel and rest are hypothesized to affect performance, yet modern data often shows modest effects after controlling for team strength.

Methods

We constructed team-season variables for Avg_Travel_Miles, Time_Zones_Crossed, Short_Rest_Games, and Bye_Boost. 

Multiple linear regressions were fit:\text{Eff}_\text{Season} \sim \text{Avg_Travel_Miles} + \text{Short_Rest_Games} + \text{Bye_Boost} + \text{Is_West_Coast}

Similar models were run for HA_EFF_Ratio with interaction terms. 

Specific scenarios (e.g., West Coast + high short rest) were examined via subgroup means.

Results

• Short_Rest_Games showed the strongest negative association with Eff_Season (significant in regression).

• Travel miles and time zones had small negative correlations (–0.03 to –0.14).

• Bye weeks provided a small positive lift.

• West Coast + high short-rest teams had notably lower mean Eff (~0.00179 vs league ~0.00196).

• HA_EFF_Ratio was mildly compressed under high short-rest conditions.

Discussion

Results align with recent literature showing diminished rest advantages post-2011 CBA changes. Short rest (e.g., Thursday night) has clearer effects than travel alone.

Conclusion

Scheduling factors, particularly short rest, meaningfully influence pace-adjusted efficiency. These should be incorporated into weekly models and tier-stability assessments.