My Data-Driven Fantasy Football Drafting Process

Here’s my complete drafting framework:

Figure 1: My Drafting Process

• Better Than Zero Philosophy

• League Settings Analysis

• ADP Pattern Research

• Probability & Projection Work

• Excel Draft Board Development

• Draft Slot Specific Simulations

• Early Draft Strategy

• Positional Philosophies

• Late Round & Streaming Strategy

Every FFPC draft begins with a clear understanding of the league environment. In this 12-team league, it’s PPR scoring with a tight-end premium of 1.5 points per catch. The roster requires 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 2 FWs, 1 K, 1 DEF, and 10 bench spots.

I then study current ADP patterns to understand when key positional runs typically happen. This helps me prepare for the supply and demand I’ll face throughout the draft.

The Better Than Zero philosophy shapes how I approach fragile positions, such as running back. I intentionally target young, ascending backs in the later rounds, drafting multiple high-upside lottery tickets with the expectation that hitting just one or two of them is a successful outcome.

The analytical core of my process uses Monte Carlo simulations and reference-class forecasting based on 10 years of historical data. I combine this with my metric indices to generate boom-and-bust probabilities for each player, all organized in a custom Excel spreadsheet.

Since I focus on slow drafts, I can stay dynamic. Early picks follow a structured plan based on my draft slot, while later rounds become more league-specific as chaos increases.

For both quarterback and tight end, I make a deliberate choice between taking an early stud or committing to a streaming approach, targeting two to three options to play favorable matchups weekly. 

Defenses and kickers are always left until rounds 19 and 20, where I also follow a streaming strategy using Vegas data and matchup analysis.

This systematic, probability-based approach gives me a consistent edge in my drafts.