Living on the High Wire: Risk Taking in Fantasy Football

There is no such thing as a "Safe Pick" in Fantasy Football, but a player's age or history can make some players riskier than others. Research on career arcs in Fantasy Football shows that Father Time is undefeated. It also shows that the survivors can be very good, though they come from a smaller group of players. My Better Than Zero strategy suggests that you should handle the first three rounds of a Fantasy Football draft with more care to avoid risk than later rounds. 

Once you get to the 7th round and beyond, all that should matter is upside potential. But occasionally a draft doesn't go the way you hoped, and you are forced to make a decision. Do I take that risky player who dropped to me later in round one than expected, or do I take a player with less upside but more safety? Sometimes it pays to walk the high wire and take a little risk. Let's examine a Fantasy Football draft where I took more than the usual amount of risk. 

"Being on the high wire is living; everything else is waiting." Karl Wallenda

Bankroll Management

Many times, over the years on The Science of Fantasy Football Podcast, Professor John Bush and I have talked about bankroll management in Fantasy Football. We both learned this skill while playing horses at the track. If you come to the races with a $200 bankroll, you don't make one big bet and hope to win over the long haul. Even the best horse race handicappers will only pick 40% winners, so you need to learn how to put the odds in your favor. 

The same is true in Fantasy Football. If you want to commit $1000 to your Fantasy Football fun times this season, you should play in a bunch of $25 leagues, not just two leagues with a $500 fee. Spreading your risk among many teams will increase your chance for success over the long haul and let you turn a profit in Fantasy Football every season. This will also allow you to take some chances in a few leagues where the "Safer Picks" are all gone. 

Sometimes I don't know just where to go.
Sometimes I can't tell, but it's just as well.
'Cause I'm walking on a high wire (Men at Work) 

High Wire Act Fantasy Football Draft

In most drafts this season, one of my "Safest Six" players has been on the board to select even very late in the first round. This time around I drew the 8th draft slot. The safest RBs, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, were gone, and so were my top four WRs: Ja'Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Amon Ra St Brown and Puka Nacua. James Cook was available, and so were both premium TEs, Brock Bowers and Trey McBride. 

Since FFPC scoring is TE-premium, grabbing Bowers was in play. Jonathan Taylor, whom I do not like as a first-round pick, and Christian McCaffrey, whom I projected as a player to choose from as early as pick 8, were still on the board. CMC is my highest-rated RB this season with an MVP Index forecast of 135 (RB3) and an upside of RB1. I reached this forecast even though I expect a 15-20% decline in his volume from last season! The only concern with CMC is his age and the injury history in 2024 that made him the flop pick of the year that season. But when healthy, CMC can help you win big in Fantasy Football. 

Sometimes you need to reject SAFE for potential SPECTACULAR results in a Fantasy Football draft. That's when the "Men at Work" song "Highwire," quoted above, came on, and I decided walking that highwire for at least one draft made sense. 

The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success. Bruce Feirstein

Time to Be Committed

Once I picked Christian McCaffrey with the 8th pick, this team's future draft plans were set in motion. I thought that perhaps one of my other top RBs would make it back to me in the second round or maybe even Trey McBride. But one thing was sure right away: I was leaning into ONLY the upside for players the rest of this draft. If you are going to walk out on that highwire, you must be committed to seeing the plan through.

Once you step out on that highwire, you might as well go all the way. Cook, Hampton, and Brown were the three RBs I hoped would make it back, but they were all gone along with both elite TEs. This left me choosing between Justin Jefferson, hoping for better QB play this season, and one of the best RBs in the league who just happens to play on what could be one of the worst teams in the league. 

My choice was to lean into that uncertainty by taking De'Von Achane in the second round. Now I needed to grab some elite talent at WR when the third and fourth rounds came around before they were all gone. I was hoping Malik Nabers would make it back, but once he was gone and I didn't like any of the choices left at RB, I walked out on that highwire again by picking Rashee Rice. 

Once I made that pick, this team was going to be the high-risk, hopefully high-reward team I expected after that first-round pick. Shooting only for upside in round four, I added Emeka Egbuka. After those four picks, maybe it was time to commit to the rubber room, but I was committed to drafting an All-Risk lineup. 

There's a fine line between genius and insanity. I have erased that line. Oscar Levant

Not Totally Crazy

Even as I continued to roll the dice on upside as the draft went along, I didn't escape some commonsense moves. Dumb but not totally crazy! I drafted the talented rookie Jadarian Price from Seattle but backed him up with Zach Charbonnet. I grabbed the handcuff to CMC, Kaelon Black later in the draft, and following the Better Than Zero game plan, I added more RBs in JK Dobbins and Dylan Sampson. 

My WR selections continued to shoot for upside with Marvin Harrison Jr, Stefon Diggs, and Makai Lemon. Along the way, I leaned into the upside at TE and QB by adding old man Travis Kelce and pairing him with QB Patrick Mahomes. My backups at each position were also upside picks, counting on a return to form from QB Baker Mayfield and an improvement from TE AJ Barner. This gave me a triple stack at QB/WR/TE, which again is playing toward the BOOM potential while realizing I could also BUST. 

Insanity is hereditary, you get it from your children. Sam Levenson

Alternative Strategy with Kicker and Defense Too

Some of my favorite longshot rookie RBs were gone by the 17th round, so I went with an alternate strategy to finish my draft. Usually, I wait until the last two rounds to pick my DEF and K since I plan to stream those two positions most of the season playing the best matchups. But since my favorite targets in the 17th and 18th rounds were gone, I once again leaned into an alternative strategy by picking K Cam Little from Jacksonville and the JAX DEF. 

Cam Little is one of the best long-range kickers in the NFL, and my pick made him the 6th kicker off the board. JAX plays Cleveland and starting QB DeShaun Watson, so I grabbed part of that turnover festival in round 18. I knew my next two targets would be available in the 19th and 20th rounds, where I landed WRs Malachi Fields and Germie Bernard. Both players have a route to opportunity if there is an injury ahead of them on the depth chart. 

When you come to a fork in the road, take it. Yogi Berra

Conclusion

Diversifying your Fantasy Football portfolio lets you build a few slightly crazy builds with huge risk but high reward if they work out. In this draft, once I made the Rashee Rice pick in the third round, I was committed to an all-upside strategy. Even though I took more chances in the early rounds than I usually find prudent, I did apply the Better Than Zero Principles by handcuffing my RBs when it was affordable and still left the draft with 7 RBs and a backup plan at both QB and TE. 

Walking out on the highwire metaphorically in Fantasy Football isn't a great strategy for every draft. Still, sometimes a few early decisions can lead to a unique strategy and team build. Good luck this season unless you are playing against me!