SCIENCE OF FANTASY FOOTBALL EP 293 

Key Outcomes

John and Dennis are refining a data-driven, scientific approach to fantasy football drafting that prioritizes process over intuition 12. They have developed a system of multiple indices (e.g., Boom, CSI) and a "Judgment Council" of AI judges to grade draft performance holistically rather than relying on simple ADP comparisons 34. The goal is to maximize ROI through diversification and a "better-than-zero" philosophy, treating the season as a marathon of probability and record-keeping 567.

Drafting Methodology & Terminology

• TARG (Target): A column in their spreadsheet indicating the preferred round for a player, with red highlighting for high-priority targets 8.

• Volatility (vol): Defined for running backs using a decision tree: exceeding 350 touches, being over age 27, or having a questionable offense 8.

• Ambiguous/Amphibious (AMB): Situations where the lead role (WR or RB) is unclear or shared evenly 910.

• Void/Blah: "Void" refers to players with poor pricing relative to peers (e.g., Josh Allen), while "Blah" indicates players in non-optimal offensive situations 9.

• Flex Index/Flex-ery: A conceptual framework for categorizing late-round players into three levels of "flex-ery" based on their utility as emergency starters or high-upside "dart throws" 1112.

The Judgment Council (AI Grading)

To move beyond generic letter grades from platforms like Fantasy Pros or FFPC, John uses a council of six specialized AI judges 413:

• Mr. Floor: Analyzes downside risk and potential "dead weeks" 4.

• Ceiling Analyst: Identifies championship-winning upside 4.

• Consensus Judge: Compares picks against expert rankings and market price (ADP) 4.

• Odds Judge: Integrates Vegas futures and props 14.

• Model Judge: Applies their "secret sauce" indices to measure process adherence 14.

• Availability/Competence: Evaluates the probability of a player maintaining a top target role and their weekly stability 1415.

Strategic Principles

• Diversification: Avoiding over-concentration in a single player across multiple leagues to mitigate injury and "down season" risks 15.

• Residuals: Using the difference between their internal value and ADP as a tiebreaker in the first 8–10 rounds 16.

• Failed Rookies: Targeting players who had a failed rookie year but possess high career-arc potential (e.g., Nico Collins) 1718.

• Handcuffing: Covering high-risk bets with affordable backups (e.g., pairing James Cook with Ray Davis) 6.

• Bankroll Management: Maintaining a comfort zone (e.g., $35 leagues) to avoid "going on tilt" and ensure the hobby remains enjoyable 192021.

Action Items

• John: Conduct a post-season review using the Judgment Council to falsify pre-season grades and refine the process for next year 2223.

• John: Test the "Flex Index" as a weighted metric of other indices and TARG 1112.

• Dennis: Continue beta-testing the "great player, bad situation" concept with his son-in-law 24.