Week 1 box scores and lining them up against the scripted pass/rush/total forecasts

Grading the Team Cards Forecast

Pulling Week 1 box scores and lining them up against the scripted pass/rush/total forecasts from multiple sources   DAP Vegas Forecasts vs GSPI Testing. 2 different ways to forecast the games.  This is the Science of Fantasy Football Methods in Practice and Shown!   Beta Testing done right! 

Need full team rushing/passing totals, not just the leaders. Pulling remaining box scores.

Week 1 script report is in. KC–DEN has not been played yet, so this is 15 games / 30 team-offenses. Yards below are team rush + team pass when the box score is available. 

When only the QB total is public, that is marked. Forecasts are the slide middle-band numbers.

reuters.com

Bottom line

The score / favorite scripts were decent. 

The yard scripts were mixed, and the three extreme R/P bets (HOU 3.00, JAX 3.00, CHI 3.00, WAS 3.00) were the biggest misses. Those four forecasts assumed a team would almost stop throwing. Three of them still threw a lot. 

Rough grade on total yards:

• Within ~50 yards: about 8 of 30 team lines

• Off by 100+: about half the board

• Direction of pass-vs-rush (who would lean run): hit CHI run volume, missed HOU/JAX/WAS as pass-light

Game-by-game (forecast → actual)

Game

Result

Forecast Pass/Rush/Tot

Actual (approx)

Script grade

01 SEA–NE

SEA 13–10

SEA 287/106/393 · NE 200/97/297

SEA 188/97/285 · NE 168/109/277

Totals low but rush almost exact. Pass overshot.

02 LAR–SF

SF 27–7

LAR 317/159/476 · SF 254/172/426

LAR 168/122/290 · SF 205/174/379

SF rush nailed (174 vs 172). Rams pass/total way high.

03 CIN–TB

CIN 33–27

CIN 316/54/370 · TB 267/110/377

CIN pass 254, rush leader 56

CIN rush close. Pass a bit high.

04 DET–NO

DET 31–30 OT

DET 179/120/298 · NO 330/106/435

Gibbs 156 rush; Shough 410 pass

NO pass smash. DET rush over. DET total too low for an OT shootout.

05 TEN–NYJ

NYJ 23–10

TEN 251/94/345 · NYJ 328/59/387

TEN 127/68/195 · NYJ 215/152/367

NYJ total close. TEN offense collapsed vs script. NYJ rush way over (152 vs 59).

06 IND–BAL

BAL 41–23

IND 309/83/391 · BAL 269/111/380

IND 166 pass / ~102 rush / 251 tot · BAL 324/171/506

Missed both sides. BAL exploded; IND got stuffed.

07 PIT–ATL

PIT 20–13

PIT 310/91/401 · ATL 313/42/356

Rodgers 221; Bijan 83; Rush 143

Both pass scripts high. ATL rush closer than 42. Cooper Rush change mattered.

08 CAR–CHI

CHI 59–37

CAR 327/94/421 · CHI 92/265/356 R/P 3.00

CAR 353 pass / 125 rush / 478 · CHI 269/291/552

CHI run volume was right (291 vs 265). CHI pass was not 92. CAR pass was right-ish. Totals too low for a 96-point game.

09 JAX–CLE

JAX 34–10

JAX 42/207/249 R/P 3.00 · CLE 245/99/343

JAX 245 pass / 126 rush · CLE 205/87

Worst miss on the board. JAX threw four TDs, not 42 yards. CLE pass was close.

10 HOU–BUF

BUF 36–31

HOU 94/244/338 R/P 3.00 · BUF 178/169/347

HOU 274/124 · BUF 334/86

HOU ratio inverted. BUF passed more, ran less.

11 LV–MIA

LV 27–13

LV 320/28/348 · MIA 147/183/330

Willis 220; Jeanty 102

LV pass high, LV rush too low (Jeanty 102 vs 28). MIA did not run 183.

12 MIN–GB

MIN 39–22

MIN 231/169/401 · GB 191/86/277

MIN 132/107/239 · GB 353/66/419

Flipped. GB threw 387 gross / 353 net. MIN run/pass both short after Murray left.

13 PHI–WAS

PHI 24–22

PHI 286/104/390 · WAS 91/252/344 R/P 3.00

Hurts 203; Barkley 83

PHI in the neighborhood. WAS pass-light script looks wrong given a 22-point road output.

14 LAC–ARI

ARI 26–14

LAC 170/190/359 · ARI 210/96/305

Brissett 277; Allgeier 61

ARI passed more than scripted. LAC favorite script missed the result.

15 NYG–DAL

NYG 28–20

NYG 314/133/447 · DAL 189/176/365

NYG 230/165/~395 · DAL 175/69/244

DAL pass close (175 vs 189). DAL rush way short. NYG total a bit high.

What the model got right

• SF rush 172 forecast vs 174 actual.

• CHI rush 265 vs 291. The R/P 3.00 idea (Bears live on the ground) was the right shape.

• NE rush 97 vs 109; SEA rush 106 vs 97.

• CLE pass 245 vs 205 — same band.

• CAR pass 327 vs 361.

• DAL pass 189 vs 175.

• 
  

What broke the script

1. Extreme R/P ratios (3.00) treated pass yards as almost zero. JAX 42, HOU 94, CHI 92, WAS 91 did not happen. Those teams still threw when the game state required it.

2. Blowouts and injuries (Murray concussion, Cooper Rush, BAL 506 yards) moved totals more than DAP grades can.

3. Forecasts look closer to gross offensive yards in a clean, average script. Real Week 1 had sacks, turnovers, and two 30+ point explosions.

If we keep the same slide engine

The useful piece is rush/pass lean + DAP color, not the exact 42.0 / 91.8 style pass totals. 

Those four 3.00-ratio games should have a floor on predicted pass yards (roughly 180+) so the card cannot print a 42-yard passing game unless the offense is truly punchless.   I will alter this in our forecast for week 2

The GSPI Metric Test

The mix test is rush/pass play share, not just who won. Baseline NFL is about 43% rush / 57% pass. Multipliers were a lean, not a forecast of exact attempt counts. KC–DEN still pending.

Week 1 mix grade: direction of the lean vs actual rush %

Team

Script lean

Pred. mix

Actual rush / pass

Rush %

Mix grade

CHI

Mild rush+

×1.10 / ×0.94

39–31

55.7%

Hit

CAR

Mild pass+

×0.92 / ×1.08

22–40

35.5%

Hit

CIN

Mild rush+

×1.10 / ×0.94

27–36

42.9%

Push — won, did not lean run

TB

Mild pass+

×0.92 / ×1.08

20–32

38.5%

Hit

BAL

Mild rush+

×1.10 / ×0.94

37–27

57.8%

Hit

IND

Mild pass+

×0.92 / ×1.08

20–33

37.7%

Hit

BUF

Neutral

×1.00 / ×1.00

21–31

40.4%

Hit (pass-lean game, even script)

HOU

Neutral

×1.00 / ×1.00

32–41

43.8%

Hit

DET

Strong rush+

×1.18 / ×0.86

33–40

45.2%

Soft hit — Gibb's volume yes, not a closeout mix

NO

Strong pass+

×0.86 / ×1.18

25–61

29.1%

Hit — 70.9% pass, Shough 410

JAX

Strong rush+

×1.18 / ×0.86

32–24

57.1%

Hit

CLE

Strong pass+

×0.86 / ×1.18

22–27

44.9%

Miss — chased on the scoreboard, not the mix

PIT

Mild rush+

×1.10 / ×0.94

21–43

32.8%

Miss — winner correct, mix inverted (67% pass)

ATL

Mild pass+

×0.92 / ×1.08

31–26

54.4%

Miss — Bijan kept it a run game

NYJ

Neutral

×1.00 / ×1.00

39–24

61.9%

Flip — Neutral team ran like a Strong favorite

TEN

Neutral

×1.00 / ×1.00

14–35

28.6%

Soft hit — 71% pass after falling behind

LAC

Strong rush+

×1.18 / ×0.86

21–30

41.2%

Inversion

ARI

Strong pass+

×0.86 / ×1.18

34–38

47.2%

Inversion — dog ran (34 rushes) and won

LV

Mild rush+

×1.10 / ×0.94

37–30

55.2%

Hit

MIA

Mild pass+

×0.92 / ×1.08

18–32

36.0%

Hit

MIN

Neutral

×1.00 / ×1.00

34–27

55.7%

Late-game rush lean after the comeback

GB

Neutral

×1.00 / ×1.00

21–46

31.3%

Flip — Love 387 yards, 69% pass

PHI

Mild rush+

×1.10 / ×0.94

25–28

47.2%

Soft hit

WAS

Mild pass+

×0.92 / ×1.08

32–35

47.8%

Push

DAL

Mild rush+

×1.10 / ×0.94

18–34

34.6%

Inversion

NYG

Mild pass+

×0.92 / ×1.08

37–31

54.4%

Inversion — home dog ran (165 rush yards)

SEA

Mild rush+

—

22–26

45.8%

Push

NE

Mild pass+

—

31–36

46.3%

Push

SF

(post-inversion)

—

30–34

46.9%

Controlled without emptying the run book

LAR

Mild rush+ pre

—

29–28

50.9%

Script inversion; mix stayed balanced

What the multipliers actually did

Hits on the direction of the lean: CHI, CAR, TB, BAL, IND, NO, JAX, LV, MIA. That is the useful part of the card.

The three Strong rush+ teams:

• JAX 57% rush — paid

• DET 45% rush — Gibbs (156) paid, team mix did not close out

• LAC 41% rush — dead miss

The pass-upside dogs that paid: Carolina 65% pass, New Orleans 71% pass, Miami 64% pass, Indianapolis 62% pass.

The two places the ratio lied:

1. Pittsburgh won as a Mild rush+ and still passed 67% of snaps.

2. Atlanta was supposed to pass from behind and instead handed it to Bijan (54% rush). Role beat script.

3. Chargers / Cowboys were rush+ favorites that passed more because they were losing.

Rule for next week

Multiplier direction held when the favorite actually led. When the score flipped, the ratio flipped with it. Do not treat ×1.18 / ×0.86 as a volume lock if the live score is not two scores.

These materials are for entertainment and informational purposes only and are not intended as betting or financial advice.