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Science of Fantasy Football Lab
2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Report Final Edition
2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Report Final Edition
by Dennis Michelsen
by Dennis Michelsen
@DMICmedia
@DMICmedia
This year, my Fantasy Football partner, Dr. John Bush, challenged me to use my “Opportunity Index” concept to handicap the 2025 class of rookies for Fantasy Football purposes. This strategy doesn’t just look at the talent of the incoming players but also looks at the current roster that the team is drafted by to make an educated guess on that rookie’s chance to earn a starting spot.
This year, my Fantasy Football partner, Dr. John Bush, challenged me to use my “Opportunity Index” concept to handicap the 2025 class of rookies for Fantasy Football purposes. This strategy doesn’t just look at the talent of the incoming players but also looks at the current roster that the team is drafted by to make an educated guess on that rookie’s chance to earn a starting spot.
Part of the Scientific Method in Fantasy Football is reviewing results and assessing how well the process worked to determine whether any changes are needed in the future. In this report, I will grade the success of the 2025 rookie class in Fantasy Football. Only players who have played 6 or more full games will be shown in the results.
Part of the Scientific Method in Fantasy Football is reviewing results and assessing how well the process worked to determine whether any changes are needed in the future. In this report, I will grade the success of the 2025 rookie class in Fantasy Football. Only players who have played 6 or more full games will be shown in the results.
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Opportunity Index Concept
Opportunity Index Concept
Over the years, I have been able to spot opportunities in Fantasy Football by looking at the roster and understanding that there was a lack of experienced high scorers in Fake Football at a particular position. Research conducted over the past 4 seasons showed that the results at RB were somewhat surprising.
Over the years, I have been able to spot opportunities in Fantasy Football by looking at the roster and understanding that there was a lack of experienced high scorers in Fake Football at a particular position. Research conducted over the past 4 seasons showed that the results at RB were somewhat surprising.
My hypothesis was that the key number was an MVP Score of 80, but the research showed that, of the 65 RBs who were replaced, their previous year's MVP Index was below 100 for all of them. 70% of those who kept their job the next season had posted an MVP Index over 100. While the sample sizes were small, comparing players to 100 to develop an Opportunity Index made logical sense. The median score for Top 12 at RB or WR is also 100.
My hypothesis was that the key number was an MVP Score of 80, but the research showed that, of the 65 RBs who were replaced, their previous year's MVP Index was below 100 for all of them. 70% of those who kept their job the next season had posted an MVP Index over 100. While the sample sizes were small, comparing players to 100 to develop an Opportunity Index made logical sense. The median score for Top 12 at RB or WR is also 100.
Since the drop off in scoring is significantly greater among the Top 12 at TE, I decided to use the threshold value of an MVP Index of 55 at TE, which is equivalent to TE6 production.
Since the drop off in scoring is significantly greater among the Top 12 at TE, I decided to use the threshold value of an MVP Index of 55 at TE, which is equivalent to TE6 production.
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MVP Index Explained
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected.
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected.
Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. A “Full Season” in Fantasy Football is a minimum of 10 full games played.
Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. A “Full Season” in Fantasy Football is a minimum of 10 full games played.
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RB Forecast
RB Forecast
LV 100 A JEANTY
DEN 87 RJ HARVEY
DAL 67 J BLUE/SANDERS
PIT 63 K JOHNSON
CLE 55 Q JUDKINS
JAX 54 B TUTEN
NE 53 T HENDERSON
TEN 44 SPEARS/MULLINGS
NYG 39 SKATTEBO
WSH 38 CROSKEY-MERRIT
CHI 35 R JOHNSON
LAC 25 O HAMPTON
NYJ 12 ALLEN/DAVIS
BUF 6 R DAVIS
MIN 6 J MASON
There were seven RB situations with an MVP Index of over 50, which showed the potential for 6-8 rookies to find success in a significant Fantasy Football role for 2025.
There were seven RB situations with an MVP Index of over 50, which showed the potential for 6-8 rookies to find success in a significant Fantasy Football role for 2025.
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RB Results
RB Results
Player MVP
Cam Skattebo 129
RJ Harvey 100
Omarion Hampton 89
Ashton Jeanty 71
TreyVeon Henderson 71
Bhayshul Tuten 67
Quinshon Judkins 57
Dylan Sampson 43
Woody Marks 38
Kyle Monangai 33
Croskey Merrit 27
While Ashton Jeanty failed to live up to his lofty ADP, his MVP Index of 71 was tied for 4th best among all rookies. RJ Harvey was a solid forecast, but he didn’t emerge until an injury to JK Dobbins increased his volume later in the season.
While Ashton Jeanty failed to live up to his lofty ADP, his MVP Index of 71 was tied for 4th best among all rookies. RJ Harvey was a solid forecast, but he didn’t emerge until an injury to JK Dobbins increased his volume later in the season.
Despite being under 39 in the Opportunity Index, Cam Skattebo had an elite-level MVP Index of 129. (RB3 Level) The right answer at RB in Dallas ended up being Javonte Williams, and he was a bargain at his ADP. Travis Etienne had a solid comeback season to keep Tuten on the bench.
Despite being under 39 in the Opportunity Index, Cam Skattebo had an elite-level MVP Index of 129. (RB3 Level) The right answer at RB in Dallas ended up being Javonte Williams, and he was a bargain at his ADP. Travis Etienne had a solid comeback season to keep Tuten on the bench.
The worst forecast was for the Steelers’ Kaleb Johnson, who was a total bust in 2025. Five of the seven highest forecasted RB situations based on the Opportunity Index were correct forecasts.
The worst forecast was for the Steelers’ Kaleb Johnson, who was a total bust in 2025. Five of the seven highest forecasted RB situations based on the Opportunity Index were correct forecasts.
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WR Forecast
WR Forecast
WR1 Forecast
WR1 Forecast
GB 53 M GOLDEN
TEN 47 E AYOMANOR
NE 40 K WILLIAMS
BAL 35 D HOPKINS
SF 33 PEARSALL
CAR 30 T MCMILLAN
CLE 29 D JOHNSON
BUF 21 J PALMER
DEN 18 D VALE
LV 13 J BECH
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WR2 Forecast
WR2 Forecast
HOU 80 J HIGGINS
LV 80 J BECH
TEN 80 AYOMANOR
CHI 74 L BURDEN
PIT 72 R WILSON
SF 72 COWING/WATKINS
JAX 70 T HUNTER
AZ 67 Z JONES
BUF 63 E MOORE
CAR 57 T MCMILLAN
IND 55 A MITCHELL
NYJ 55 A SMITH
GB 50 GOLDEN/S WILLIAMS
NE 49 K WILLIAMS
WSH 43 J LANE
CLE 32 D JOHNSON
LAC 30 T HARRIS
You can often find hidden gems of opportunity at the WR position with either the WR1 or WR2 slot having an opening. There was a total of 14 WR openings with an Opportunity Index over 50, but only one for the WR1 position.
You can often find hidden gems of opportunity at the WR position with either the WR1 or WR2 slot having an opening. There was a total of 14 WR openings with an Opportunity Index over 50, but only one for the WR1 position.
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WR Result
WR Result
Luther Burden 71
Tetoria McMillan 65
Emeka Egbuka 47
Tez Johnson 43
Isaac TeSlaa 33
Jayden Higgins 25
Travis Hunter 14
Chimere Dike 8
Matthew Golden 0
Elic Ayomanor -19
Pat Bryant -22
Tre' Harris LAC -38
Jack Bech -50
Isaiah Bond CLE -50
D'Onte Thornton -86
It was a lean year for rookie WRs with only 2 players over an MVP Index of 50 for the year, but Emeka Egbuka started strong and brought excellent Fantasy Football value in his first five games of the season.
It was a lean year for rookie WRs with only 2 players over an MVP Index of 50 for the year, but Emeka Egbuka started strong and brought excellent Fantasy Football value in his first five games of the season.
Matthew Golden was a complete bust but showed his ability in the opening round playoff loss to the Bears. Tetoria McMillan had the best rookie season from start to finish. Luther Burden had a nice run from week 14 on and should be a solid performer all next season.
Matthew Golden was a complete bust but showed his ability in the opening round playoff loss to the Bears. Tetoria McMillan had the best rookie season from start to finish. Luther Burden had a nice run from week 14 on and should be a solid performer all next season.
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TE Forecast
TE Forecast
CHI 55 C LOVELAND
DAL 55 SCHOONMAKER
HOU 55 B JORDAN
IND 55 T WARREN
NO 55 MATAVEO
NYJ 55 M TAYLOR
SEA 55 E ARROYO
LAC 48 O GADSDEN
TB 34 P DURHAM
There was a lot of potential at the TE position, 7 positions with an Opportunity Index over 50. Gadsden was the most interesting forecast since he was undrafted to start the season. The top 2 rookie TE draft picks were tied for the highest Opportunity Index.
There was a lot of potential at the TE position, 7 positions with an Opportunity Index over 50. Gadsden was the most interesting forecast since he was undrafted to start the season. The top 2 rookie TE draft picks were tied for the highest Opportunity Index.
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TE Results
TE Results
Coleston Loveland 50
Harold Fannin 50
Tyler Warren 35
Oronde Gadsden 15
Gunner Helm 0
Terrance Ferguson 0
Mason Taylor -8
Jackson Hawes -83
Coleston Loveland and Harold Fannin would lead the way with an MVP Index of 50. The other highly drafted rookie, Tyler Warren, had an MVP Index of 67 with QB Daniel Jones but fell off badly after Jones got hurt. Oronde Gadsden had six strong games but was inconsistent down the stretch.
Coleston Loveland and Harold Fannin would lead the way with an MVP Index of 50. The other highly drafted rookie, Tyler Warren, had an MVP Index of 67 with QB Daniel Jones but fell off badly after Jones got hurt. Oronde Gadsden had six strong games but was inconsistent down the stretch.
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Conclusion
Conclusion
Over the past 3 seasons, the Opportunity Index concept has found some great sleeper picks, especially at the RB position. Combining that data with a look at median performance by rookies over the last 5 seasons showed that there was likely to be a strong RB rookie class in 2025. Five RBs finished with an MVP Index over 70, which is typically Fantasy Football starter level.
Over the past 3 seasons, the Opportunity Index concept has found some great sleeper picks, especially at the RB position. Combining that data with a look at median performance by rookies over the last 5 seasons showed that there was likely to be a strong RB rookie class in 2025. Five RBs finished with an MVP Index over 70, which is typically Fantasy Football starter level.
Two rookie TEs gave us excellent Fantasy Football value, with a third slowed down late in the year by an injury to his QB.
Two rookie TEs gave us excellent Fantasy Football value, with a third slowed down late in the year by an injury to his QB.
The WR performances for the year were a bit disappointing. The same opportunity-defining process will be used for the 2026 season, and the first forecast should be published in June.
The WR performances for the year were a bit disappointing. The same opportunity-defining process will be used for the 2026 season, and the first forecast should be published in June.
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