Leaders of the Pack: Final Report 2025

by Dennis Michelsen 

@DMICmedia

 https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com

Total Points in Fantasy Football, and even Points Per Game, can be deceiving because Fantasy Football is a weekly game. Consistency does matter in Fantasy Football when you measure consistency accurately. Grading players against a weekly point total was perfected by Bob Lung many years ago in his Consistency Report. In science, the goal is to build on the work of others to develop new ways to enhance that work. My MVP Index looks at Upside Consistency in Fantasy Football every week. Now that the season is complete, we can also look back at how players performed versus their Average Draft Position using my MVP Index. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose if they have a very low-point week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. The goal of the MVP Index was to combine these three outcomes into a single easy-to-understand number. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season. A “Full Season” in Fantasy Football is a minimum of 10 full games played. If a player posts fewer than 10 games, a statistical method is used to bring their performance up to a 10-game minimum. The MVP Diff shown in the data sets for this report is just the difference from the top MVP at a position to that player’s value. 

Consensus Average Draft Position: Cons ADP

The Average Draft Position (ADP) is calculated for each player before the season starts based on where he was drafted in real drafts. The data used for this study is based on a consensus of all Fantasy Football platforms as determined by Fantasy Pros. This data changes throughout the draft season, so for this study, I used the most recent ADP report from Fantasy Pros. 

BEST Index

In Fantasy Football, assessing players' upside potential is essential for predicting future success. In this data study, I show the “Best 8 Game MVP” for each player and use that data as a tiebreaker when two players are tied on the same MVP Index. This data will also be used to forecast the likely MVP Index range for players in future seasons. 

FG: Full Games Played 

When you calculate Points per Game for a player across all games played, that resulting number is not a good indication of what a player did when he played a full game rather than just a few snaps. When calculating my MVP Index, I only consider “Full Games Played” in that calculation. A Full Game is regarded for a QB when he plays 70% of more of the offensive snaps. An RB needs to play a minimum of 40% of the snaps, get 5 targets, or have a total of 10 rushing attempts and targets. A WR or TE needs to play a minimum of 50% of the snaps or get 5 targets. 

MVP Adv: MVP Advantage

Data studies have shown the mean performance for players in the MVP Index over the past five seasons. That median performance is used to calculate an expected MVP Index based on the draft position at which the player was selected. At the end of the season, comparing a player’s actual MVP Index to the ADP Expectation yields the MVP Adv or MVP Advantage. The higher the value, the more advantage was gained by picking that player based on where he was drafted this season. 

QB Report 

Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye ended up tied for the best MVP Index for the season at 117.6, and both players had a massive advantage over their draft position. Since Stafford was drafted even later than Maye, he is the Fantasy Football MVP at QB for 2025. Since 2020, this is the lowest MVP Index for the top-rated QB. Last season, the top QB was over 140 in the MVP Index. Back in 2020, five QBs topped the 140 MVP Index level. QBs with an MVP Adv of -50 or worse hurt your Fantasy Football team this season with their poor performance versus ADP. 

RB Report 

Christian McCaffrey posted an incredible MVP Index of over 160 for the season, finishing 29 points ahead of Bijan Robinson. Injuries are usually the culprit for the horrible value versus ADP at the RB position. Four RBs exceeded an MVP Index of 130, which is the second-best result since 2020. Only 11 RBs exceeded an MVP Index of 100, which is tied for the lowest since 2020. Among players hitting the elite number of 100, Javonte Williams had the lowest ADP at 36, making him a tremendous value this season. 

WR Report

Puka Nacua led all WRs in MVP Index, finishing right at 150, which has only been reached in 4 of the last 6 Fantasy Football seasons. Jason Smith-Njigba was the WR MVP, posting the best MVP Advantage value of 55 among WRs, exceeding an MVP Index of 125. Chris Olave and George Pickens were huge values at the WR position, being drafted outside of the Top 25 but finishing in the top 7 at the position. Only 3 WRs topped an MVP Index of 120 versus the median of 5, and only 9 WRs topped 100 with 10 or more full games compared to the median of 11 over the past 5 seasons. 

TE Report

Trey McBride didn’t just lead all TEs in the MVP Index; he posted a number far superior to that of his next-best competitor at the position. His MVP Index of 129.4 was second only to Travis Kelce back in 2020. McBride would have ranked QB1, RB5, and WR3 with that season! Four TEs were horrendous flops this season with an ADP in the Top 10 but an MVP Index of zero or negative. This was a total waste of draft capital on TJ Hockenson, Evan Engram, Mark Andrews, and David Njoku. Harold Fannin and Juwan Johnson were great late ADP value plays this season.