Leaders of the Pack After Week Nine 

by Dennis Michelsen 

@DMICmedia

 https://www.scienceoffantasyfootball.com

Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system utilizes four different statistical tools to obtain a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season, as well as the last two seasons, but each week is weighted heavily in favor of the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week nine. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season.  

MVP25 Index

Now that we have four weeks into the season, we can start looking at the MVP Index just for the current season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, while in the regular MVP Index, we only count the full games played. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide on whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will log a full game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season. 

Upside Index 

While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to treat outlier data in a way that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season's data is weighted more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances. 

Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games

A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the exact value is used to judge a player, helping with Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, judging each QB against each other, using the same point value, is what is most important. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football. 

Top 15 at QB

1. Lamar Jackson- Less rushing but 4 passing TDS in his first week back      

2. Josh Allen- Best passing percentage in a game for his career      

3. Patrick Mahomes- Worst passing percentage in a game for his career  

4. Jalen Hurts- Tough Monday Night Football showdown coming off his bye week   

5. Baker Mayfield (+1) Bye week couldn’t have been timed any better for the Bucs

6. Jaxson Dart (+6) The Saints will regret not drafting this guy 

7. Bo Nix- If your league gives bonus points for 4th quarter production, Bo is your guy

8. Jayden Daniels (-3) will be dropping off this list for a while with his elbow injury

9. Drake Maye-Playing at an almost MVP level this season  

10. Justin Herbert- Continues to get it done behind a makeshift offensive line

11. Brock Purdy (-3). His nagging injury is keeping him sidelined again this week

12. Sam Darnold (+3) It turns out that Seattle did know what they were doing 

13. Dak Prescott (-2) Two bad games after a run of four straight excellent fantasy games

14. Matthew Stafford (NEW) The preseason concerns about a back issue were overblown 

15. Jared Goff (-2) still offers a solid floor and an occasional high ceiling 

Top 30 at RB

1. Christian McCaffrey- Playing like he deserved the 1.01 pick this season in Fantasy  

2. Bijan Robinson (+1). Second through fourth are very tight and will swap places going forward.

3. Jonathon Taylor (-1) ended a 13-game streak of double-digit fantasy points game weeks.

4. De’Von Achane- Only one game under 16 PPR points all season

5. Jahmyr Gibbs- Second below the median match in the last three games played  

6.  Saquon Barkley- Health is a bit of a mystery coming out of their bye week 

7. Josh Jacobs- Even on a down week for the Packers offense, he has a solid game 

8. Kyren Williams- Solid MVP Index of 100 for this season alone 

9. Bucky Irving (+1) Fantasy Managers and Bucs desperately need Bucky back 

10.  James Cook (-1). A foot injury could slow him down a bit

11. Breece Hall (+1) Trade rumors turned out to be false, as usual 

12. Derrick Henry (+1) Current season MVP Index of 62, his worst since the  2018 season 

13. D’Andre Swift (+3) Fast recovery needed after his replacement popped for over 200 yards

14. David Montgomery- Seeing an occasional fizzle rather than sizzle from the Lions this year

15. Javonte Williams- 6 of 9 games over 15 points is much better than expected 

16. Travis Etienne (+4) Survived trade rumors as Jags were buyers, not sellers

17. Chase Brown- Will his frustrations with the defense get him in the coach’s doghouse? 

18. Rico Dowdle (+9) Proving to be the better of the 2 RBs in Carolina

19. Ashton Jeanty (+5) Proving why it can be risky to draft a rookie RB on a below-average team

20. RJ Harvey (NEW) Dynamic playmaker needs more volume to be in the Top 12 discussion

21. Quinshon Judkins (+1) Offense wasn’t the same without him 

22. Alvin Kamara (-4). Sad to reach that point in a career when Kamara is no longer an automatic start

23. Rachad White- Solid RB but will take a backseat to Bucky when he returns

24. Chuba Hubbard (-5) could fall out of the Top 30 soon

25. Aaron Jones (+1) Injury issues are slowing him down this season 

26. Jaylen Warren (+2). His modest performance has still not given the rookie a chance

27. Ken Walker (-2) Volume split killing the value for SEA RBs

28. JK Dobbins (-7) Stuck in the lower performance half of a volume split

29. Jordan Mason- Could rise again without Jones in the lineup

30. Tony Pollard (NEW), the TEN offense needs an offensive line rebuild 

Top 35 at WR

1. Amon Ra St Brown (+1) Top 2 will keep flipping spots every few weeks

2. Puka Nacua (-1) Rams and Fantasy Managers everywhere need him healthy

3. Ja’Marr Chase- Every game over 17 PPR points since Flacco took over as starting QB 

4. Cee Dee Lamb- Not a single complete match under 14 PPR points this season 

5. Davante Adams (+1) Did he find the Fountain of Youth at Taco Bell? 

6. Rashee Rice (-1) still scored 18 PPR points on Mahomes' worst day as a pro 

7. Justin Jefferson- Still super consistent, but the upside has been removed without Darnold at QB

8. Jaxon Smith-Njigba- Five of his last six games over 20 PPR points

9. Drake London (+7) MVP25 of 162 is the second best, to only Rashee Rice

10. Garret Wilson (+1) was having a career-best season until his injury

11. Emeka Egbuka (+1) Strong second half of the season will have him in ROTY discussion 

12. Keenan Allen (-2). Four of his last six games under 10 PPR points 

13. George Pickens- Career best MVP index of 162 compared to previous best of 57 

14. Michael Pittman (+4) Rewarding those who drafted him with a solidly consistent season 

15. Nico Collins (-1) Injury to Stroud is a concern for his short-term value 

16. Jordan Addison (-7) should drop back into solid WR2 territory

17. AJ Brown (-3) Injury and attitude concerns coming out of their bye week

18. Courtland Sutton (+3), Troy Franklin is getting more volume lately 

19. Deebo Samuel (-4) Down 11 spots in the last 2 weeks 

20. DeVonta Smith (+3) Passing offense has been more inconsistent than usual 

21. Stefon Diggs (+4) was the steadiest WR, and now Boutte might miss a game

22. Ladd McConkey (-3) Rookie TE Gadsden might command more target share

23. Brian Thomas Jr (-6) Five games under 10 PPR points is not worthy of his ADP

24. Jaylen Waddle (+2) Four out of five games over 14 PPR points since they lost Tyreek

25. Chris Olave (-3) Rattler might have been better for his Fantasy Football production 

26. Tee Higgins (+5) Zero games under 10 PPR points with Flacco, three without him at QB

27. DK Metcalf (-3) Zero games under 10 PPR points before Bye, two since 

28. DJ Moore (+4) had TDs rushing and passing last week but missed a receiving TD for the Trifecta

29. Quentin Johnson (-2) Six of eight games in double digits this season is solid consistency 

30. Terry McLaurin (-2). Injuries are making this a lost season after the new contract deal

31. Marvin Harrison Jr (NEW) had his first 20+ PPR Points game of the season 

32. Zay Flowers (-3) Six of eight games with double-digit PPR points this year

33. Chris Godwin- Bucs offense needs to get healthy in a hurry

34. Rome Odunze (-4) shut out on a day the Bears' offense put up 47 points 

35. Jakobi Meyers- Trade to the Jags might hurt his Fantasy Football value 

Top 15 at TE

1. Trey McBride- His worst game this year was 9 PPR points

2. Brock Bowers (+2) returned from injury for the best game of his career

3. Travis Kelce (-1) The older man leads all TEs in yardage after nine weeks 

4. Sam LaPorta (+5) Four out of eight games as the second most targeted Lion

5. Dallas Goedert- Six of seven games with double-digit PPR points this year 

6. Jake Ferguson (+2) Three games over 20 PPR points this year, two more than the last 2 seasons

7. Tyler Warren (-1) Back-to-back games under 10 PPR points for the first time in his career

8. George Kittle (-5) has only one double-digit PPR points game since returning from injury

9. Tucker Kraft (-2). Last time he will show up on this list after his season-ending injury

10. Oronde Gadsden- Most Fantasy Points scored at TE since week six

11. Mark Andrews (-2) Three double-digit PPR point games with Lamar, zero without him

12. David Njoku- Two of the last three games, both CLE TEs have been in double digits

13. Dalton Kincaid (NEW) MVP Index of 100 in full games played this season 

14. Zach Ertz (-3) MVP Index of 50 with Daniels and zero without him at QB

15. Harold Fannin Jr (-1) Four double-digit PPR point games while sharing TE targets