Science of Fantasy Football Lab
Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just this year in determining who is the leader at each position. My unique ratings system uses four statistical tools to produce a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season and the last two seasons, with each week weighted more heavily toward the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week twelve.
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a standard metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.
Now that we have enough weeks into the season, we can start looking at the MVP Index just for the current season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game played, whereas in the regular MVP Index, we only count full games. This is because in Fantasy Football, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season.
While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to treat outlier data in a way that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighted more to keep the data up to date for this season’s performances.
A spike week is defined as a game in which a player scored around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to around 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the same value is used to judge a player for Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than the median for that position, judging each QB against the others with the same point value is what matters most. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football.
Josh Allen- Despite a lousy game, he is in his own tier at the top
Jalen Hurts (+3) bounced back from two below-average games
Jaxson Dart (+3). Backup did well last week, but they need him back
Lamar Jackson (-2) Back-to-back lousy games are proof that the toe injury is getting worse
Patrick Mahomes (-1) Last of the second-tier guys and should shine in another holiday game
Baker Mayfield (-3) Injury concern could drop him from this list
Dak Prescott (+2) led a massive comeback in the real NFL and helped Fantasy teams win, too
Drake Maye- Last of the third-tier guys
Jameis Winston (NEW) They should use him at WR when Dart returns
Jared Goff- QB5 at home and QB15-20 outside in the wind
Matthew Stafford (+2) should be more prominent in the MVP discussion
Brock Purdy (-5) had such a bad game on MNF, maybe there needs to be a QB controversy in SF
Bo Nix (-2) Top 5 QB in the 4th quarter of games
Justin Herbert (-2.) With the injuries to the O-line, it’s a wonder he is still healthy
Daniel Jones (NEW) Top 10 level QB play in contract years
Christian McCaffrey- Volume makes him the undisputed RB1 in Fantasy Football
De’Von Achane- MIA would be completely MIA without him
Jahmyr Gibbs (+2) Volume increase for an explosive player is a nice thing
Jonathon Taylor (-1) Chiefs defense is the only one to slow him down this season
Bijan Robinson (-1) Last of the second-tier guys this season
Kyren Williams- Leads the third tier of RBs that extends to RB9
James Cook (+1) Only seeing a 20% negative regression in TDs this year
Bucky Irving (-1) Will he be this good when he comes back from injury?
Josh Jacobs- Should be ready for Turkey Day in Detroit
Saquon Barkley- In a tier of his own at RB10
Derrick Henry- In a tier of his own at RB11
Travis Etienne (+1) didn’t lose volume to Tuten as many predicted
Chase Brown (+1) Performing at an RB10 level since Flacco took over at QB
Breece Hall (-2) QB play is causing him to drop
Ashton Jeanty (+4. An Increase in passing-game volume is helping him rise in the rankings.
Rico Dowdle (-1) QB inconsistency and volume split keep him around RB16
Javonte Williams (-1) topped 20 PPR points 3 times in the first five games and none since
David Montgomery- Volume drop could drop him out of the Top 25 soon
Quinshon Judkins (+3). Injuries have been the only thing to slow him down as a rookie
D’Andre Swift (-3)is losing more volume to Monangai
Ken Walker (-1) Back-to-back solid games after failing to reach 10 PPR points in 5 straight
RJ Harvey (+3) Will he get more volume coming back from the Bye week?
Alvin Kamara- Injury will drop him off this chart soon
Aaron Jones (-3) Ineffective QB play is dropping all the Vikings players in Fantasy rankings
Rachad White (-1) Dropping to RB3 on his own team
JK Dobbins (NEW) Uncertain volume coming back from Bye week
Sean Tucker (-1) If Bucky doesn’t return, he might take over as RB1 for the Bucs
TreVeon Henderson (-1) RB3 in total points since week 9
Jaylen Warren (-1) Volume split with Gainwell is dropping him in the rankings
Chuba Hubbard (-1) Just barely hanging on to the Top 30 with back class
Amon Ra St Brown (+1) Top 2 in a tier of their own right now
Puka Nacua (-1) Having a second great WR caps his upside, but not his consistency
Cee Dee Lamb- Only WR13 since returning from injury
Ja’Marr Chase- Should get Burrow back at QB this week
Jaxon Smith-Njigba- Has scored 37 more PPR points than any other WR this season
Davante Adams- Great chemistry with Stafford at QB
Rashee Rice (+1) WR4 since returning from his suspension
Nico Collins (-1) Texans' defense is so good the offense doesn’t need to post a big number
Drake London- Falcons need him back from injury desperately
George Pickens (+2). Only JSN has scored more fantasy points at WR than him since week 3
Justin Jefferson- 2025 has proven that JJ is not QB-proof
Deebo Samuel (+1) McLaurin returning might help
Emeka Egbuka (-3) Will the return of Godwin make him more of a WR2-level WR?
Stefon Diggs- Was last week a sign or just a fluke event?
Chris Olave (+3) Volume is keeping him in the Top 20
Garret Wilson (-1) Will he return this week?
AJ Brown (+10) WR5 since he told Fantasy Football managers to bench him
Tetairoa McMillan (-1). With better QB play, he could be a Top 10 WR
Keenan Allen- Weekly volume changes make him a tough player to read right now
Michael Pittman (-4). Great offenses can shut down the Colts and Pittman
Jaylen Waddle (+3) WR8 in Fantasy Football since Tyreek got hurt
Ladd McConkey- WR5 since week 5 in total points scored
Brian Thomas Jr (-2) Will he return from injury this week?
Courtland Sutton (+1) Only WR29 since week 7 when Franklin started being the first choice
Tee Higgins (-2) Injury could drop him off this chart soon
DeVonta Smith- Still the big play guy on an offense that prefers to run the ball
Jordan Addison (-7) should drop out of the Top 35 unless they find an option at QB
Terry McLaurin- Should return from injury this week
DJ Moore (+6) Hard to predict his spike weeks
DK Metcalf (-1) Only WR36 since week 6
Marvin Harrison Jr (+3) Cardinals’ offense needs him back from injury soon
Zay Flowers- Lamar at less than 100% is hurting his fantasy value
Jameson Williams (-2) posted a ZERO last week after being a WR3 after their bye week
Jakobi Meyers (NEW) Establishing chemistry with QB with Thomas out
Wan Dale Robinson (NEW) WR8 in Fantasy Football since the Nabers injury
Trey McBride-Posting RB5/WR5 numbers in Fantasy Football at TE is incredible.
George Kittle- In a second tier at TE, all by himself
Brock Bowers (+1) Three of the last four games in double digits
Travis Kelce (-1). Only McBride has more receiving yards among TEs
Tyler Warren- Only McBride and Ferguson have more receptions than the rookie
Jake Ferguson (+1) Best value at the TE position in Fantasy Football this year by far
Mark Andrews (+1) leads the fifth tier at this position
Dallas Goedert (+1). Four of his last five games have been under 10 PPR points
Oronde Gadsden (+2) TE2 in total points after taking over the starting TE position
Dalton Kincaid- Injury could drop him off this chart soon
David Njoku (-1) The rookie is getting more volume lately
Hunter Henry (NEW) TE7 level production since Boutte got hurt
Zach Ertz (NEW) Return of McLaurin could hurt his volume
Juwan Johnson (-1) TE6 in total points since Shough took over at TE
AJ Barner- Six of ten full games played over 10 PPR points this season