Research-Intensive Decision-making in FF

Dr. Richard Hamming’s framework for success—originally from his legendary 1986 talk “You and Your Research”—is a timeless set of principles for achieving first-class results in any high-stakes, competitive endeavor. Hamming, a pioneering mathematician and computer scientist, distilled what separates those who do truly great work from those who merely get by. 

A 2007 PLOS Computational Biology editorial condensed his insights into “Ten Simple Rules for Doing Your Best Research, According to Hamming.” These rules emphasize mindset, preparation, courage, focus, and style over raw talent or luck.

Fantasy football drafting and winning is the perfect modern application. It’s not just about luck in the draft or waiver wire—it’s a research-intensive, decision-making arena where preparation, problem-solving, and execution compound over a season (or multiple seasons). The “important problems” here are building a championship roster under constraints like ADP (average draft position), bye weeks, injuries, league scoring, and opponent stacking. 

Below, I map each of Hamming’s 10 rules directly to FF strategy, with practical takeaways for drafting and in-season management.

1. Drop Modesty

Original: Commit openly to doing first-class work. Society may frown on ambition, but you must say: “Yes, I want to win a championship.”

FF Application: Stop treating fantasy as “just for fun” or “I’m not that serious.” Declare your goal: dominate your league. This mindset shift makes you research deeper, trade aggressively, and optimize every decision. Average owners dabble; champions treat it like a science. In your draft prep, aim for a roster that projects to the top of your league’s standings—not “good enough.”

2. Prepare Your Mind

Original: Luck favors the prepared mind (Pasteur). Opportunity meets preparation.

FF Application: Study obsessively before the draft. Master projections, advanced metrics (e.g., PFF grades, air yards, target shares), sleeper/bust lists, and your league’s specific rules/scoring. Simulate drafts, track ADP vs. ECR (expert consensus rank), and build value-based drafting models. The “lucky” late-round steal? It’s prepared owners who spotted the undervalued player weeks earlier. In-season, prepared minds pounce on waivers before news breaks.

3. Age Is Important

Original: Peak creativity often comes early in technical fields (e.g., quantum mechanics), but later in others. Don’t wait for “experience” to act.

FF Application: Newer analysts and data-driven owners (the “young” minds in FF) often innovate fastest—think zero-RB strategies, best-ball innovations, or AI projection models. Veterans bring wisdom but can get stale with outdated heuristics (“always draft RBs early”). Shift your approach every few seasons (Hamming suggested ~7 years in research). If you’ve drafted the same way for 5+ years, experiment with contrarian builds in a best-ball league first.

4. Brains Are Not Enough, You Also Need Courage

Original: Believe you can do important things. Courage > raw intelligence. Great scientists push forward despite obstacles.

FF Application: Have the guts to reach for your convictions. Fade the consensus on overhyped players (e.g., ignore the “must-have” QB in Round 3 if your model says wait). Draft a polarizing rookie or zero-RB stack when the room groans. Trade away your “safe” stud for upside if the math checks out. Courage means ignoring groupthink on sleeper alerts or streaming defenses boldly. Without it, you’ll draft safe mediocrity and finish middle-of-the-pack.

5. Make the Best of Your Working Conditions

Original: “Ideal” conditions aren’t always best. Turn defects into assets; good workers don’t blame tools.

FF Application: Leagues with tough settings (deep benches, superflex, auction, or injury-prone scoring) force creativity. Limited time? Build a streamlined cheat sheet and automation (e.g., custom rankings spreadsheet). Bad draft slot? Master the late-round hero strategy. Use constraints to your advantage—e.g., in a 12-team league with slow drafters, exploit the extra thinking time for real-time analysis. Don’t complain about your league’s quirks; weaponize them.

6. Work Hard and Effectively

Original: Drive compounds like interest. One extra hour of smart work daily creates massive outperformance over time. Hard work must be intelligent.

FF Application: Consistent, focused effort wins. Spend 30–60 minutes daily in the off-season on film study, data models, or trade simulators instead of scattered podcasts. During the season, review every matchup with purpose (not just box scores). The owner who puts in 10% more high-quality analysis (e.g., custom projections tailored to your league) will dominate long-term. It’s not grinding useless stats—it’s targeted work on high-leverage decisions like start/sit or trade deadlines.

7. Believe and Doubt Your Hypothesis at the Same Time

Original: Tolerate ambiguity. Believe your theory enough to act, doubt it enough to spot flaws and iterate.

FF Application: Trust your draft model (e.g., “this WR has breakout potential”) but monitor contradicting signals (e.g., training camp reports, usage changes). Start a player based on your projection, but have a flexible bench plan if new data emerges. Great FF owners adapt projections weekly without abandoning their core framework. This balance prevents overconfidence (sticking with a bust) or paralysis (chasing every hot take).

8. Work on the Important Problems in Your Field

Original: Focus on what truly matters. Ask: “What are the important problems in my field?” Most people waste time on trivia that won’t lead to big results.

FF Application: The “important problems” in FF are: (1) identifying sustainable value (not just weekly boom weeks), (2) roster construction for playoff upside, (3) managing variance (injury risk, boom/bust), and (4) exploiting market inefficiencies (ADP mispricings). Ignore noise like weekly rankings or TikTok hype. Dedicate “Great Thoughts Time” (Hamming’s Friday lunch ritual) to big-picture questions: “How does this year’s meta favor pass-catching RBs?” or “Where is the biggest value in my specific league format?” Draft with these in mind, not round-by-round checklists.

9. Be Committed to Your Problem

Original: Full emotional commitment lets your subconscious work on the issue 24/7. Distractions kill first-class results.

FF Application: Obsess over your league’s unique dynamics. Once you commit to a strategy (e.g., “hero RB + elite WRs”), let it dominate your thinking—your subconscious will flag opportunities others miss (like a buy-low trade candidate). Avoid shiny-object syndrome (chasing every expert’s favorite). Deep commitment turns drafting from a checklist into an intuitive edge.

10. Leave Your Door Open

Original: Closed doors boost short-term productivity but isolate you from important signals. Open doors invite interruptions but deliver crucial insights and collaborations. (Hamming noted a strong correlation with long-term success.)

FF Application: Engage the community—join FF Discords, Twitter/X spaces, or forums for contrarian views and early buzz. Don’t isolate in your spreadsheet. Listen to (but filter) league mates’ chatter during the draft for tells. In-season, share ideas (or scout trades) openly. The best owners blend solo analysis with collective intelligence, spotting trends (e.g., emerging TE usage) before they hit main streets.

CONCLUSION

Hamming’s overarching message (echoed across his work): Success is doing the right thing, at the right time, in the right way—with courage, drive, and style. 

In fantasy football, this means treating drafting as rigorous research, not gambling. 

Adopt these rules, and you’ll stop hoping for a winning team—you’ll build one consistently.

The struggle is the point, as Hamming noted. 

The owners who internalize this framework don’t just win leagues—they redefine what’s possible in their circles. 

Apply it this draft season, and watch the compound interest pay off in trophies.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​