At the Quarter Poll in Fantasy Football
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Science of Fantasy Football Lab
At the Quarter Poll in Fantasy Football
At the Quarter Poll in Fantasy Football
by Dennis Michelsen
by Dennis Michelsen
Too many people in Fantasy Football get locked into looking at year-end points. Winning in Fake Football is about having a strong team for all four quarters of the season. You need some players that start strong, and you also need to have some talented rookies who can emerge later in the season. It’s like handicapping a horse race, because by the time that first quarter has finished, you know whether your game plan was a smart one. But the race, just like a Fantasy Football season, is just getting into the groove at the quarter pole, and there is a long way to go to the finish line. Let’s take a look, team by team, at predictions made for key players and the results after the first four weeks using my MVP Index for this season.
MVP Index Explained
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a massive number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season.
Atlanta Falcons
QB Michael Penix: Forecast 75 with range 40 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 0
RB Bijan Robinson: Forecast 140 with range 110 to 155
After four games: MVP25 of 150
WR Drake London: Forecast 90 with range 75 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 100
WR Darnell Mooney: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 70
After four games: MVP 25 of -67
TE Kyle Pitts: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 40
After four games: MVP25 of 50
Penix has been hot and cold so far this season, but should rebound to his forecasted range. Bijan has been all-world, and London has been right on target for a solid season. I was much lower than the consensus on Mooney, and so far, that’s holding up, and Pitts is having a solid season after four games.
Arizona Cardinals
QB Kyler Murray: Forecast 80 with range 65 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB James Conner: Forecast 90 with range 80 to 115
After four games: MVP25 of 67 (Injured)
RB Trey Benson: Forecast 60 with range 35 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 25
WR Marvin Harrison Jr: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 25
TE Trey McBride: Forecast 95 with range 75 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 100
Murray is a little below his forecasted range but should rebound. The Cardinals have lost their top two RBs to injury, and both were performing as expected. I was lower than the consensus on Harrison, and so far, that’s working out. McBride is the stud everyone expected.
Baltimore Ravens
QB Lamar Jackson: Forecast 125 with range 90 to 150
After four games: MVP25 of 150
RB Derrick Henry: Forecast 115 with range 80 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Zay Flowers: Forecast 75 with range 60 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Rashad Bateman: Forecast 55 with range 40 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 50
TE Mark Andrews: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of 25
Lamar was on another Fantasy MVP roll before his hamstring injury. King Henry has been well below his expected forecast after four weeks. Both Ravens’ WRs are where I expected them to be, but TE Andrews is well below his forecasted range.
Buffalo Bills
QB Josh Allen: Forecast 115 with range 105 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 150
RB James Cook: Forecast 90 with range 65 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 200
WR Khalil Shakir: Forecast 75 to range 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Keon Coleman: Forecast 65 with range 20 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 50
TE Dalton Kincaid: Forecast 35 with range 10 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of 50
Josh Allen and James Cook are carrying this offense and are even above the high side of my forecasted range of outcomes. The Bills’ WR group is just as average as forecast, and Kincaid is producing at the top end of my forecasted range.
Carolina Panthers
QB Bryce Young: Forecast 75 with range 40 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Chuba Hubbard: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Tetairoa McMillan: Forecast 95 with range 70 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Xavier Legette: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of -100
TE Ja’Tavion Sanders: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of -33
Bryce Young is right in the middle of his forecasted range after four weeks. I was concerned that Hubbard might see some regression from his career year MVP of 100, and so far, that’s working out. McMillan has been solid despite very average QB play. Legette has been dealing with injuries, but is not playing up to his forecast, and Sanders was doing fine until his injury issue.
Chicago Bears
QB Caleb Williams: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 125
RB D’Andre Swift: Forecast 75 with a range of 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR DJ Moore: Forecast 80 with range of 65 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 25
WR Rome Odunze: Forecast 60 with a range of 20 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 125
TE Colston Loveland: Forecast 40 with a range of 30 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of -100
Caleb Williams has been even better than my lofty high-end forecast and should be a Top 10 QB for the rest of the season in this offense. Swift and Moore are exactly where I expected them both to be this season. Rome Odunze has taken over as the WR1 and has exceeded my expectations. It’s too early to conclude on the rookie TE.
Cincinnati Bengals
QB Joe Burrow: Forecast 125 with a range of 100 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of -100 (Injured)
RB Chase Brown: Forecast 115 with a range of 90 to 135
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Ja’Marr Chase: Forecast 135 with range of 85 to 150
After four games: MVP25 of 25
WR Tee Higgins: Forecast 90 with a range of 75 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 0
TE Mike Gesecki: Forecast 35 with a range of 10 to 60
After four games: MVP25 of -100
The loss of Joe Burrow to injury and a worse offensive line than expected have made this offense one of the worst investments in Fantasy Football this season. Chase Brown has negative yardage before contact this season, and is well below the range. Chase continues the curse of the number one pick, and Higgins has been a non-factor, too.
Cleveland Browns
QB Joe Flacco: Forecast 30 with a range of 0 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of -50
RB Quinshon Judkins: Forecast 75 with a range of 50 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 133
WR Jerry Jeudy: Forecast 75 with range 35 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Cedrick Tillman: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 25
TE David Njoku: Forecast 60 with range 25 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of -25
Flacco was so bad that he is being replaced this week, and that’s potentially good news for the rest of the Browns for Fantasy Football this season. Judkins's uncertain legal battles and joining the club late are why I was lower on his forecast, but he came in ready and is off to a great start. I was lower than consensus on their WRs, and they have been even lower than my forecasted range. Njoku has lost volume to the rookie TE quicker than I expected.
Dallas Cowboys
QB Dak Prescott: Forecast 90 with range 75 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Javonte Williams: Forecast 60 with range 35 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 150
RB Mile Sanders: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of -50
WR Cee Dee Lamb: Forecast 120 with range 100 to 145
After four games: MVP25 of 67
WR George Pickens: Forecast 80 with range 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 125
TE Jake Ferguson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 45
After four games: MVP25 of 100
Dak got off to a slow start in week one, but his MVP has been at 100% for his last three weeks. Javonte Williams has returned to his pre-injury form and has therefore exceeded my forecasted range. The injury to Lamb has lowered his score and increased Pickens’ score below the forecast, but those should return to range by the end of the season. Ferguson has played back to his Dak games back class.
Denver Broncos
QB Bo Nix: Forecast 90 with range 65 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 75
RB RJ Harvey: Forecast 70 with range 45 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 0
RB JK Dobbins: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 100
WR Courtland Sutton: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Marvin Mims: Forecast 75 with range 30 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 25
TE Evan Engram: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of -67
Nix has been right in his range with a solid start to the season. RJ Harvey is starting to get more volume over the last 2 weeks and should live up to his forecast. As Dobbins loses more volume to the rookie, he should be in his range by later in the season. Sutton had his usual one bad week in four, which has him right in his forecasted range. Mims and Engram have been lower than expected.
Detroit Lions
QB Jared Goff: Forecast 95 with range 65 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Jahmyr Gibbs: Forecast 140 with range 105 to 150
After four games: MVP25 of 125
RB David Montgomery: Forecast 90 with range 60 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Amon Ra St Brown: Forecast 125 with range 115 to 145
After four games: MVP25 of 150
WR Jameson Williams: Forecast 80 with range 60 to 115
After four games: MVP25 of 25
TE Sam LaPorta: Forecast 55 with range 25 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 25
Goff is a little lower than his forecasted range, but this offense isn’t struggling as much as some thought it would without Ben Johnson. Sonic and Knuckles have started the season off as the best 1-2 punch in the NFL. The Sun God is having another fantastic season. I was lower than consensus on Jameson Williams, and he has started even slower than I expected. LaPorta is right on the lower edge of his forecasted range.
Green Bay Packers
QB Jordan Love: Forecast 90 with range 80 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 100
RB Josh Jacobs: Forecast 120 with range 80 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 125
WR Matthew Golden: Forecast 85 with range 60 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Jayden Reed: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Romeo Doubs: Forecast 40 with range 20 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 50
TE Tucker Kraft: Forecast 30 with range 20 to 45
After four games: MVP25 of 75
Jordan Love was one of my favorite late QB draft choices, and he is off to a terrific start as expected. Jacobs has started right where he finished last season. The loss of Jayden Reed to injury should allow the rookie WR Matthew Golden to take charge. Doubs should exceed his forecasted range without Reed and Kraft has gotten off to a fantastic start.
Houston Texans
QB CJ Stroud: Forecast 75 with range 30 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 25
RB Nick Chubb: Forecast 60 with range 0 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 25
RB Woody Marks: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Nico Collins: Forecast 115 with range 80 to 125
After four games: MVP25 of 100
WR Jayden Higgins: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of -50
WR Christian Kirk: Forecast 50 with range 35 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of 0
TE Dalton Schultz: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 55
After four games: MVP25 of 0
I was concerned about Stroud, who appeared in my broad range of outcomes, and he has yet to reach the low end of that range so far. I was very high on rookie RB Marks, and he is starting to take over the volume needed to hit the high end of his forecasted range. Collins is the only solid WR so far, but it’s too early for rookie Higgins to conclude that forecast yet.
Indianapolis Colts
QB Anthony Richardson: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 125
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Benched)
RB Jonathon Taylor: Forecast 110 with range 80 to 145
After four games: MVP25 of 150
WR Michael Pittman: Forecast 70 with range 25 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of 100
WR Josh Downs: Forecast 65 with range 35 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 0
TE Tyler Warren: Forecast 45 with range 10 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 75
I was way too high on Richardson, but my forecasted range has been solid for the starting QB for the Colts. JT has shown that when he avoids injuries, he is still one of the best RBs in the league. I was higher than consensus on Pittman and he has even exceeded the top end of my forecasted range. I was lower than consensus on Downs, and he has been below the low end of my forecasted range. Tyler Warren was one of my value plays at TE and has even exceeded my expectations.
Jacksonville Jaguars
QB Trevor Lawrence: Forecast 85 with range 65 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of 25
RB Travis Etienne: Forecast 65 with range 45 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of 100
RB Bhayshul Tuten: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of -33
RB Tank Bigsby: Forecast 45 with range 30 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Traded)
WR Brian Thomas: Forecast 110 with range 80 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 25
WR Travis Hunter: Forecast 75 with range 30 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of -25
TE Brenton Strange: Forecast 40 with range 0 to 65
After four games: MVP25 of 25
I was wrong about a bounce-back season for Trevor Lawrence; he has the Jaguars WRs missing Mac Jones after four weeks. Etienne has played back to his class as I expected. Sad QB play has Thomas well below his expected range of outcomes. The wide range I had for rookie Travis Hunter had me taking only one share among 30 redraft leagues and very shares in dynasty. Strange was a solid late TE choice and should be even better if Lawrence starts playing better.
Kansas City Chiefs
QB Patrick Mahomes: Forecast 95 with range 75 to 135
After four games: MVP25 of 125
RB Isiah Pacheco: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of -25
RB Kareen Hunt: Forecast 60 with range 40 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of -25
RB Brashard Smith: Forecast 50 with range 30 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of -67
WR Rashee Rice: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Suspended)
WR Xavier Worthy: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Hollywood Brown: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 50
TE Travis Kelce: Forecast 65 with range 50 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of 50
Mahomes has played back-to-back class and is off to a fantastic start. The Chiefs RBs have been a big disappointment so far, and that should open the door for the rookie soon. Suspension to Rice and injury to Worthy make Mahomes start even more amazing, but both should be excellent Fantasy Football values by the end of the season. Kelce is right on the bottom end of his forecasted range.
Las Vegas Raiders
QB Geno Smith: Forecast 60 with range 35 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Ashton Jeanty: Forecast 105 with range 90 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Jakobi Meyers: Forecast 75 with range 45 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Jack Bech: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of -100
TE Brock Bowers: Forecast 100 with range 70 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 25
Geno Smith has been exactly what he was expected to be in this offense. Despite a slow start, rookie RB Jeanty should be on the rise after his first big game of the season last week. Meyers is right in range, but the rookie WRs have been a non-factor to start the season. The injury to Bowers has him below his forecasted range, but he should bounce back just fine.
Los Angeles Chargers
QB Justin Herbert: Forecast 80 with range 55 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 75
RB Omarion Hampton: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 75
RB Najee Harris: Forecast 65 with range 40 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of -67 (Injured)
WR Ladd McConkey: Forecast 100 with range 75 to 125
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Kennan Allen: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Quentin Johnson: Forecast 50 with range 0 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 150
TE Oronde Gadsden: Forecast 25 with range 0 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of -50
I was higher than consensus on Herbert, and he is right in the middle of my forecasted range. The injury to Harris has allowed the rookie RB Hampton to take charge earlier, and he is as great as expected. I was higher than consensus on Quentin Johnson and bet on the high side of his forecasted range late in drafts. McConkey is the third-best WR on his own team, but he should turn it around. Allen is off to a solid start as expected. The rookie Gadsden should be a factor by week 8.
Los Angeles Rams
QB Matthew Stafford: Forecast 60 with range 15 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 75
RB Kyren Williams: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 100
WR Puka Nacua: Forecast 120 with range 100 to 135
After four games: MVP25 of 200
WR Davante Adams: Forecast 90 with range 75 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of 100
TE Terrance Ferguson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of -100
I was higher than consensus on Stafford, and despite playing with a sore back, he is off to a solid start. Kyren Williams is right where I expected him to be and has not lost any significant volume to the reserves yet. Nacua has been an all-world player, and Adams is showing that two top 10 WRs can exist in the same offense. Injuries have slowed the development of rookie TE Ferguson.
Miami Dolphins
QB: Tua Tagovailoa: Forecast 85 with range 45 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of 25
RB De’Von Achane: Forecast 125 with range 90 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 125
WR Tyreek Hill: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 130
After four games: MVP25 of 75 (Injured)
WR Jaylen Waddle: Forecast 80 with range 35 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 50
TE Darren Waller: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 100
The wide forecasted range for Tua was an accurate view of his inconsistency, and his play has been slightly below that expected range. Despite the inconsistent quarterback play, the skill players for the Dolphins at running back and wide receiver are right where I expected them to be after four weeks. The devastating injury to Hill opens the door for Malik Washington to hit around a 60-80 MVP and should allow Waddle to hit the top end of his forecasted range. Waller had one solid game, but the jury is still out on him.
Minnesota Vikings
QV JJ McCarthy: Forecast 75 with range 40 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 0
RB Aaron Jones: Forecast 85 with range 70 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
RB Jordan Mason: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Justin Jefferson: Forecast 120 with range 90 to 135
After four games: MVP25 of 125
WR Jordan Addison: Forecast 65 with range 50 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 100
TE TJ Hockenson: Forecast 65 with range 30 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of -25
Injuries to McCarthy and Jones will result in my forecasts on both players receiving an incomplete grade after four weeks. Mason has been performing towards the top end of his forecasted range due to the injury situation at RB. Jefferson is off to a great start, as expected, and Addison returned from suspension playing great football. TJ Hockenson had one good week and two lousy weeks so far.
New England Patriots
QB Drake Maye: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 125
RB TreVeyon Henderson: Forecast 80 with range 55 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Stefon Diggs: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 125
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Kyle Williams: Forecast 60 with range 10 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of -100
TE Hunter Henry: Forecast 30 with range 10 to 60
After four games: MVP25 of 75
Maye was one of my later QB targets in drafts and has exceeded my expectations, which were above consensus. The volume split at RB has both players struggling as Fantasy Football producers, but the rookie Henderson should get more chances in the future. Diggs got off to a slow start but appears to be playing his way into form after four weeks. Rookie WR Kyle Williams is a busted forecast, and Henry has exceeded my forecasted range so far.
New Orleans Saints
QB Spencer Rattler: Forecast 50 with range 0 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 25
RB Alvin Kamara: Forecast 100 with range 65 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Chris Olave: Forecast 100 with range 70 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR Rashid Sheheed: Forecast 40 with range 20 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of 25
TE Juwan Johnson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of 75
Rattler has demonstrated that he is a capable NFL quarterback. Kamara and Olave are working to improve the volume, but are well within their forecasted range of outcomes. I was below consensus on Shaheed, and he has been close to the bottom of my forecast range. Johnson has been a great late TE value that I wish I had drafted more of this year.
New York Giants
QB Russel Wilson: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of 33 (Benched)
QB Jaxson Dart: Forecast 50 with range 20 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 100
RB Cam Skattebo: Forecast 60 with range 20 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 75
RB Tyrone Tracy: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
WR Malik Nabers: Forecast 125 with range 80 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 25 (Injured)
WR Wan’ Dale Robinson: Forecast 40 with range 0 to 60
After four games: MVP25 of 25
TE Theo Johnson: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of -25
Wilson was replaced by the rookie Dart even faster than I expected, and Dart had a solid start in week four. Skattebo took over as expected, and with the injury to Tracy, should exceed the top end of my forecast the rest of the season. The loss of Nabers will hurt this offense, and it’s too early to know how my projections on the other pass catchers will work out.
New York Jets
QB Justin Fields: Forecast 75 with range 60 to 95
After four games: MVP25 of 100
RB Breece Hall: Forecast 100 with range 80 to 130
After four games: MVP25 of 50
WR Garret Wilson: Forecast 95 with range 50 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 150
TE Mason Taylor: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of -25
I was way higher than consensus on Fields, Hall, and Wilson this season. Fields has exceeded my lofty forecast for him. Breece Hall has an MVP Index of 100 in Fields starts, and the loss of Braelon Allen to injury opens the door to even more volume. Wilson has been the target hog I expected, and the rookie TE had his first solid game in week four and should perform to the top end of his forecasted range.
Philadelphia Eagles
QB Jalen Hurts: Forecast 110 with range 95 to 140
After four games: MVP25 of 100
RB Saquon Barkley: Forecast 110 with range 65 to 130
After four games: MVP25 of 75
WR AJ Brown: Forecast 115 with range 70 to 135
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR DeVonta Smith: Forecast 85 with range 50 to 105
After four games: MVP25 of 0
TE Dallas Goedert: Forecast 40 with range 20 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 100
Hurts has gotten it done more with his legs than his arm in the first four weeks, but is right where I forecasted him to be this season. My wide range on Saquon surprised some people, but his slow start has rewarded me for being lower than consensus on him this year after being well above consensus on him last season. Both starting WRs have been missing in action so far this year, which is a huge surprise. Goedert is off to a terrific start.
Pittsburgh Steelers
QB Aaron Rodgers: Forecast 50 with range 0 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Kaleb Johnson: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of -100
RB Jaylen Warren: Forecast 55 with range 35 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 100
WR DK Metcalf: Forecast 80 with range 65 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 125
WR Calvin Austin: Forecast 30 with range 0 to 60
After four games: MVP25 of 0
TE Johnu Smith: Forecast 60 with range 20 to 115
After four games: MVP25 of 0
TE Pat Freiermuth: Forecast 30 with range 15 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of -50
My wide range of outcomes for Rodgers showed the uncertainty of having a QB over 40 playing for your Fantasy Football team. His first four games have been better than expected, but his Fantasy Football results have lived up to the high uncertainty forecast. I was wrong about the rookie RB who is so deep in the coaches’ doghouse that he might be worthy of cutting from your roster soon. Metcalf is the only pass catcher worth rostering in Fantasy Football.
San Francisco 49ers
QB Brock Purdy: Forecast 80 with range 70 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 100 (Injured)
RB Christian McCaffrey: Forecast 110 with range 60 to 130
After four games: MVP25 of 200
WR Brandon Aiyuk: Forecast 95 with range 60 with 110
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Injured List)
WR Jauan Jennings: Forecast 60 with range 30 to 90
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
WR Ricky Pearsall: Forecast 45 with range 0 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 50 (Injured)
TE George Kittle: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 100 (Injured)
This team has been devastated with injuries this season, losing their QB, top 2 WRs, and their starting TE. CMC is off to a record-breaking start to his season in pass-catching as a result. The grades on the other forecasts are currently incomplete due to injuries, but Kittle has gotten off to a great start.
Seattle Seahawks
QB Sam Darnold: Forecast 70 with range 40 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Kenneth Walker: Forecast 100 with range 70 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 75
RB Zach Charbonnet: Forecast 90 with range 60 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 33
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Forecast 100 with range 75 to 130
After four games: MVP25 of 125
WR Cooper Kupp: Forecast 80 with range 65 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 0
TE Elijah Arroyo: Forecast 20 with range 0 to 40
After four games: MVP25 of -67
Darnold is right where I expected him to be this season as a competent QB in the NFL, but very average in Fantasy Football terms. The split of RB volume when both are healthy has both players living up to their pre-season forecasts after four weeks. JSN has lived up to his lofty expectations, and I was too high on Kupp. The rookie TE should come around, although the veteran AJ Barner is off to a solid start.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB Baker Mayfield: Forecast 100 with range 60 to 130
After four games: MVP25 of 125
RB Bucky Irving: Forecast 105 with range 80 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 125
RB Rachaad White: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of -25
WR Mike Evans: Forecast 100 with range 65 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 100 (Injured)
WR Chris Godwin: Forecast 90 with range 60 to 120
After four games: MVP25 of 0
WR Emeka Egbuka: Forecast 70 with range 40 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 150
TE Cade Otton: Forecast 15 with range 0 to 40
After four games: MVP25 of -67
The consensus had Baker Mayfield suffering a huge negative regression in his Fantasy Football performance, but that consensus was dead wrong. He was one of my late QB choices and is right at the top end of my forecasted range. The recent injury to Bucky is disappointing, as he was off to a great start, but it will still pay off for my “Draft Em Both” strategy for the second straight year with this RB tandem. I was much higher than consensus on Egbuka, but he has even exceeded my lofty forecast range. Evans was off to a solid start before his injury. Godwin is back a little earlier than I expected, and that should pay off. Otton has been a non-factor as expected.
Tennessee Titans
QB Cam Ward: Forecast 60 with range 20 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of -50
RB Tony Pollard: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of 50
RB Tyjae Spears: Forecast 50 with range 30 to 80
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
WR Calvin Ridley: Forecast 70 with range 50 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of -25
WR Elic Ayomanor: Forecast 55 with range 30 to 75
After four games: MVP25 of 50
TE Chig Okonkwo: Forecast 15 with range 0 to 50
After four games: MVP25 of -25
Ward is off to a horrible start, and therefore, the entire offense has been below my forecasted expectations, except for Pollard, whose volume has him right in my forecasted range. Ayomanor has taken over as the best WR on the roster, and Chiggy has been a non-factor as expected.
Washington Commanders
QB Jayden Daniels: Forecast 115 with range 85 to 130
After four games: MVP25 of 100
RB Austin Ekeler: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 85
After four games: MVP25 of -50 (Injured)
RB Jacory Croskey Merrit: Forecast 35 with range 0 to 60
After four games: MVP25 of 25
WR Terry McLaurin: Forecast 90 with range 70 to 100
After four games: MVP25 of 0 (Injured)
WR Deebo Samuel: Forecast 75 with range 50 to 110
After four games: MVP25 of 100
TE Zach Ertz: Forecast 50 with range 40 to 70
After four games: MVP25 of 50
Injuries have plagued this team, too, but Daniels was off to a great start before he went down. The RB situation remains unsettled following Ekeler's injury. Deebo has performed to the upper end of his forecasted range so far, and Ertz is off to a solid start as expected.
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