Science of Fantasy Football Lab
All 32 Looking Forward Reasoning Backward After Week One
Each week, I will provide a brief update on each team, including the latest injury concerns and performances over the past week. This report will also include recommendations for possible waiver wire pickups and suggested FAAB bids. FAAB bids and availability will be based on the FPPC $1000 bankroll. One week is in the books; let’s look forward to the rest of the season for all 32 teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Coming off a big win on the road over New Orleans, the Cardinals return home this week to face the Carolina Panthers. James Conner got the edge over Trey Benson in touches, 16-9, and now they face what should be a weaker defense this week. The Cardinals escaped week one without any significant injury concerns to their skill position players. The third receiving option behind Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride becomes murky.
Possible Waiver Addition: Zay Jones is a $1 holler and is available in 99% of FPPC leagues
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons lost a close game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, struggling to get their running attack going consistently throughout the game. Michael Penix Jr. connected on 27 of 42 passes, totaling 298 yards with one touchdown. He also added 21 yards on the ground with another touchdown. While Bijan Robinson had an anemic 2 yards per carry and 24 yards total on the ground, he had 100 receiving yards, including a 50-yard TD catch and run. Darnell Mooney sat out week one, and Drake London had a minor injury in week one, setting up some opportunities at WR on waivers. Kyle Pitts had a solid game.
Possible Waiver Addition: Ray Ray McCloud is a $5 bid and is available in 71% of FPPC leagues
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens collapsed down the stretch, giving the Buffalo Bills a win on Sunday Night Football in an instant classic. Their offense scored 40 points and gained 432 yards, but their defense gave up 41 points and 497 yards to the Bills. Derrick Henry had another impressive game, totaling 182 yards in offense and scoring 2 TDs, but his late fumble cost them the game. Lamar Jackson had a highly efficient day, completing 14 of 19 passing attempts for 209 yards. Zay Flowers had a monster game with 143 yards and a TD, but TE Mark Andrews was only targeted once all game.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen kicked off his campaign for back-to-back MVP awards with over 400 yards of total offense and four total TDs, showcasing the Bills' offense as one of the best again this season. But glaring holes in their defense might make these big stat days a must for Allen. James Cook had a blue-collar type day with 18 touches, 102 yards in total offense, and a TD. Other than a 51-yard reception, he looked average the rest of the game. Ty Johnson will again handle passing down duties with Ray Davis, only likely to see a serious workload if something happens to Cook. Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid both had great days, scoring 25 and 14 PPR points, respectively.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Carolina Panthers
There was a lengthy lightning delay during this game, which might have significantly affected the Panthers, given their awful Week One performance. The Jaguars’ defense was much more formidable than expected, and Bryce Young had a horrible game with three turnovers. Chubba Hubbard saw lots of volume, and rookie Tetairoa McMillan had a solid first game, which was very promising. Legette saw seven targets but only had three receptions, but he appears to be the second receiving option with Thielen gone.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Chicago Bears
Soldier Field was rocking for three quarters on Monday Night, but then it fell into mourning in the 4th quarter. Fans went from chanting, “Ben Johnson for President,” to saying. “This guy is worse than our mayor!” Caleb Williams had a solid statistical game but made lots of bad throws with the game on the line. Luther Burden will eventually be a player, but is stuck at WR5 right now. Olamide Zacheus is proving why I liked him in Best Ball, but it is tough to start him in a set lineup league. Kyle Monangai is the backup to Swift.
Possible Waiver Addition: Olamide Zacheus is a good $1 holler this week and is available in 94% of FPPC leagues right now
Cincinnati Bengals
This year, the Bengals started their regulars more in the preseason than ever before, aiming to get off to a fast start this season. Although they won their opener, their offense struggled, with QB Joe Burrow throwing for only 113 yards. Chase Brown added just 2 yards per carry but scored a TD to bail out his Fantasy Football Managers in week one. Look for the Bengals offense to put on a show this week at home against the Jaguars. It will be interesting to see if the change in Defensive Coordinators has made a significant impact on that unit or whether it was just because they were playing the Browns that they looked so good.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Cleveland Browns
It looked like they were going to send the Dog Pound home happy for a change, but once again the Browns managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Jerome Ford looked awful and was replaced by rookie Dylan Sampson, who had a terrific PPR points day with eight catches. The big star of the game was rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr with seven receptions. Cedrick Tillman also looked like a better option than Jerry Jeudy for much of the game, but Jeudy would rally to finish with five catches and 63 yards.
Possible Waiver Addition: Harold Fannin Jr is worth a $100 bid this week, but is only available in 10% of FPPC leagues.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys played better than expected on Thursday Night Football to open the season, but all the owner could talk about on Monday was Micah Parsons and how his back injury suddenly got better. They should have defeated the defending world champions, but fumbled away that opportunity. Javonte Williams looked like a smart acquisition. This week, they are back home against a much weaker team, and we will see if their offense and defense perform better than expected.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Denver Broncos
The Broncos looked sloppy in their opening day win against a rookie QB, but their defense took the ball away twice, and they managed to do just enough on offense to win. The Titans’ defense is surprisingly good, but four turnovers,, including three by second-year QB Bo Nix,, will not be the winning formula in the AFC’s Wild Wild West. Evan Engram left the game with a calf injury, and his status for week two is questionable.
Possible Waiver Addition: Tyler Badie got the start over Jaleel McLaughlin and should continue to see some reps in the passing game. He is worth a $1 holler in FPPC and is available in 99% of leagues.
Detroit Lions
The Lions ran into the buzzsaw that is the Green Bay Packers on opening day. All the talk in the offseason was how much this offense would miss their old play-caller, Ben Johnson. QB Jared Goff had a bad start to the season, but gets some home cooking this week to see how much of the Lions' issues last year were missing Johnson and how much it was an excellent Packers’ defense. On the positive side, the Lions' defense held an excellent Packers’ offense to just 266 total yards.
Possible Waiver Addition: Isaac TeSlaa made a spectacular catch for his first career TD, and if anything happened to the top two WRs, he would get more opportunities. He is a solid buy for $45 on FPPC but is only available in 35% of leagues.
Green Bay Packers
This is a team that will win on defense and just enough solid play on offense to get the job done. If they get behind, they will not be as effective. Injuries hit two of their leading WRs, with rookie Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed both dealing with minor concerns ahead of a quick turnaround to a Thursday Night Game this week. QB Jordan Love was super-efficient,, throwing only 22 times but connecting for two TD passes. That low volume could give you some low-scoring weeks in Fantasy Football. The Packers signed WR Christian Watson to a one-year deal, and he should stay on your radar while he serves the last 3 weeks on PUP. He is available in 77% of FPPC leagues.
Possible Waiver Addition: Christian Watson won’t be available until week five, but with three of their WRs already dealing with minor injuries, he will be worth a $1 holler in FPPC leagues over the next couple of weeks.
Houston Texans
The Texans' offense was very anemic against the Rams on opening day, scoring only 9 points and gaining only 265 yards. Yes, the Rams have a solid defense, but it will be a long season if QB CJ Stroud can’t show some of that rookie season magic. The loss of Joe Mixon will hurt this offense, and while veteran Nick Chubb’s stat sheet looks ok, he couldn’t get those tough yards to keep moving the virtual first down marker. (Twenty years from now, fans won’t understand the “Moving the Chains” cliché) Rookie RB Woody Marks didn’t get much of an opportunity week one, but fellow rookie WR Jayden Higgins led the team in reception yards, with only two catches for 32 yards.
Possible Waiver Addition: Rookie WR Jaylin Noel saw some snaps in the slot and could be a nice grab and hold for a $5 bid this week on FPPC, and he is available in 35% of leagues
Indianapolis Colts
All the “Cheetos-eating analysts in Mom’s basement” were screaming that starting QB Daniel Jones over the project Anthony Richardson was a huge mistake. Still, Danny Dimes was throwing dimes and making that offense look great on opening day. He was a Fantasy Football bargain, opening the season with two rushing TDs and a passing TD to Michael Pittman. Pittman was one of those value picks in drafts that I worried about this season, but he paid off big in week one with a 21 PPR point game. RB Jonathon Taylor had his usual solid game, and rookie TE Tyler Warren was targeted 9 times and got a carry out of the backfield too. Josh Downs saw fewer than 50% offensive snaps, which is a considerable concern for the future of this season.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Jacksonville Jaguars
One of my other value picks this week was RB Travis Etienne,, whom I expected to play to his back class of 2023. However, I was holding my breath all pre-season, as everyone else was touting Tank Bigsby to take over the lead RB role. Meanwhile, I was speculating that rookie RB Bhayshul Tuten was the true handcuff to ETN. Etienne would top 150 yards in total offense in week one as the Jaguars thumped Carolina at home. Bigsby had a lackluster game and was dealt to the Eagles this week. Brian Thomas Jr had a tranquil first week with only one catch on seven targets, while rookie WR Travis Hunter looked solid with six catches for only 33 yards. My other value play this year from the Jags, TE Brenton Strange, had a solid start with four catches for 59 yards. Trevor Lawrence had a pick and some awful throws in week one.
Possible Waiver Addition: The departure of Bigsby makes LaQuint Allen a potential grab-and-stash option,, and you should be able to secure him this week for a $1 holler on FPPC. He is also available in 94% of leagues. WR Dyami Brown is also a speculative $1 holler and is available in 46% of FPPC leagues.
Kansas City Chiefs
It was not a great week one for the defending AFC Champion Chiefs, losing on opening night and losing their best WR, who is not currently suspended. Travis Kelce collided with Xavier Worthy, who should miss extended time with a separated shoulder. Hollywood Brown stepped in and looked great with 10 catches for 99 yards against a tough Chargers’ defense. The Chiefs’ running game was anemic with only 41 yards from their RB tandem, but Patrick Mahomes stepped up with a big Fantasy Football performance, gaining 57 yards and a TD on the ground. Travis Kelce had a relatively quiet night but did score on a nice 37-yard TD pass that showed he hasn’t lost too many steps yet.
Possible Waiver Addition: Jue Ju Smith-Schuster didn’t look very fast but was very efficient with a 10.5 PPR point game and would be a nice add for $40 this week on FPPC, where he is available in 98% of leagues. Deep threat Tyquain Thornton could turn into a solid play with one more injury to the WR group, and is a nice grab and stash for $1 this week. Rookie WR Jalin Royals was inactive week one, but is also a nice grab and stash for $1 this week.
Las Vegas Raiders
Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty was shut down in week one, showing why he was a little too expensive in drafts this season. Veteran QB Geno Smith picked up the offensive slack and willed his new team to their first victory of the season with a 362-yard passing performance. He was sacked four times and threw an interception, but without Geno coming up big,, the Raiders would have lost their opener. TE Brock Bowers left the game with an injury, but has appeared to dodge a more serious knee injury and is expected to play this week. Backup TE Michael Mayer finished the game strong, and both rookie WRs had their moments. Veteran WR Jakobi Meyers showed once again why he always has sneaky value later in Fantasy Football drafts, starting the year with 97 yards on eight catches.
Possible Waiver Addition: Geno Smith is available in 21% of FPPC leagues and would be a nice backup QB grab for a $25 bid this week. Michael Mayer is a solid $1 holler and is available in 86% of leagues right now as a speculative play if Bowers gets hurt.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers may need to schedule their home game against the Chiefs on foreign soil every year. QB Justin Herbert’s MVP Index forecast this year was solid, but I wasn’t sure of the passing volume for the Chargers. They unleashed a beast in week one with Herbert throwing for 318 yards and 3 TDs, but also utilized his speed to get outside of containment to win the game and reward his Fantasy Football investors with another 32 yards on the ground. Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, and Quentin Johnston might be a formidable WR trio to shut down this season, and they also have rookie Tre Harris. Rookie RB Omarion Hampton made a few wrong decisions but protected the ball and was fed volume.
Possible Waiver Addition: Quentin Johnston is only available in 16% of FPPC leagues, but is worth a $100 bid if he is still available in your league. Tyler Conklin is a lovely $1 holler if you need an emergency replacement at TE moving forward and is available in 62% of FPPC leagues.
Los Angeles Rams
If you looked at QB Matthew Stafford’s stats, you would never have guessed the Rams only scored 14 points on the day. Connecting on 21 of 29 passes for 245 yards and a TD without an interception looks like the stat line for a game score in the mid to upper 20s. RB Kyren Williams was his typical grind-it-out self with only 66 yards on 18 carries, but he did find the endzone. The WR tandem of Nacua and Adams looked fantastic, with Nacua posting 130 yards on 10 receptions. This will be a solid offense moving forward.
Possible Waiver Addition: WR Jordan Whittington is a nice grab and stash for $1 this week on FPPC and is available in 93% of leagues. If anything happens to the top two WRs, he has potential.
Miami Dolphins
QB Tua Tagovailoa got the ball out on time and hit the open man, but the problem was that the open man was sometimes wearing the wrong color jersey! How you can have an offense with these weapons that only score 8 points against the Colts is one of life’s great mysteries. De’Von Achane had a solid Fantasy Football game, but it could be a long season for first-round drafters of Achane unless Tua figures it out fast. I wouldn’t be surprised to see turmoil with the WR group if this team struggles early, and a new home for Tyreek or Waddle could yield dividends.
Possible Waiver Addition: Backup QB Zach Wilson will be an interesting speculative addition to rosters, especially in Superflex leagues, and is available in 98% of FPPC leagues. WR Malik Washington could emerge if injury or trade removes one of the two premier WRs on this roster, and is worth a $5 bid on FPPC leagues and is available in 62% of leagues.
Minnesota Vikings
After three quarters of play on Monday Night Football, Skol Nation had serious doubts about their new QB, JJ McCarthy. After he connected on two TD passes and ran another TD himself, all doubts are gone. When the entire world WR Justin Jefferson gets on the post-game show, calling JJ a dog, you know you have a potential outstanding QB to build a stunning offense around. Jefferson only had 44 yards receiving but did find the endzone. The RB tandem of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason was efficient. TE TJ Hockenson wasn’t involved enough in the passing game.
No Waiver Targets This Week
New England Patriots
The considerable preseason debate with the Patriots was who would emerge as the leading threat at WR. Veteran Stefon Diggs was the solid favorite, although some speculated that rookie Kyle Williams or speedy Demario Douglass could emerge. Nobody was betting on former LSU standout Kayshon Boutte. Still, his potential as a massive star at the college level before injury should have given us a clue about his potential. Hunter Henry also looked solid at TE, and despite playing fewer snaps, rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson looks like a playmaker who should get more work going forward.
Possible Waiver Addition: I might be overbidding, but I'm putting in $150 bids on Boutte because I liked his game at LSU. If he stays healthy, he could be a dynamic receiving option for Drake Maye. He is available in 84% of FPPC leagues.
New Orleans Saints
QB Spencer Rattler looked pretty good in week one after winning a camp battle for the starting position. Young QBs tend to check down to their RB and TE, so we can expect more solid games from Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson. Chris Olave spent some time on the sideline after a big hit but was able to log a solid game with seven catches on 13 targets for 54 yards. If he can stay healthy this season, it could be a solid year for Olave, who was a terrific bargain in Fantasy Football drafts.
Possible Waiver Addition: TE Juwan Johnson is only available in 27% of FPPC leagues, but is a solid $25 bid if you need a TE replacement this week. Spencer Rattler is available in 72% of leagues but would be a cheap $5 addition in a Superflex league. RB Devin Neal is a lovely $1 holler and is available in 51% of leagues in case anything happens to Kamara.
New York Giants
It could be a long season for Giants fans who must have been screaming all week on sports radio that it’s time to take a shot on rookie QB Jaxson Dart. Russell Wilson looked cooked, connecting on only 17 of 37 passes. The 'Giants' offensive line struggled to create holes for second-year RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., and hybrid RB Cam Skattebo performed like a rookie. WRs Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson were able to post double-digit PPR points games despite the anemic offensive effort by the New York Football Giants.
No Waiver Targets This Week
New York Jets
Speaking of New York Sports Radio, they were ripping QB Justin Fields early and often during the preseason, but he shut them all up with a great week one performance. He would have finished as RB16 in the week if you only counted his rushing points. This was supposed to be a solid defense they were going against with the Steelers, but despite a losing effort, they posted almost 400 yards of offense. The Fantasy Football Analyst noise said this was a split backfield, but Breece Hall showed his back class with 145 yards in total offense.
Possible Waiver Addition: Somebody must emerge as the second WR option on this team, and it could be Tyler Johnson, a nice $1 grab and stash who is available in 100% of leagues.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles did just enough on opening day to avoid losing to their archrival, the Dallas Cowboys. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith were nonexistent in this game, and the leading WR on the night was Jahan Dotson with only 59 yards. Jalen Hurts only threw for 152 yards on the night, but bailed out his Fantasy Football Managers with 62 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Saquon Barkley received the majority of the carries on the night, and backup RB Will Shipley suffered an injury. It didn’t seem like a bad injury at the time, but the Eagles' acquisition of RB Tank Bigsby from the Jaguars suggests otherwise.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Pittsburgh Steelers
Remember the good old days when this team used to win with defense? AARP Member Aaron Rodgers looked like a statue getting sacked 4 times, but he carved a solid Jets defense apart, connecting for 4 TDs in his Steelers debut. WR DK Metcalf looked solid as expected, but the speedy Calvin Austin emerged as the second receiving option for at least week one. The TE tandem of Johnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth saw a combined nine targets, but I’m concerned they will split the volume so much that neither will be a dependable Fantasy Football starter.
Possible Waiver Addition: WR Calvin Austin is worth a solid $75 bid and is available in 51% of FPPC leagues.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey gave the Fantasy Football world a scare by missing practice on Friday, but had over 30 touches in week one. Meanwhile, TE stud George Kittle suffered a serious hamstring injury that sent him to IR. QB Brock Purdy also sustained a shoulder injury but has escaped a significant injury at this time. Ricky Pearsall emerged as a solid option out of that WR room.
Possible Waiver Addition: Journeyman TE Jake Tonges made the most of his opportunity when Kittle went down and is an excellent $45 bid on FPPC this week.
Seattle Seahawks
There was a lot of speculation in the offseason about whether QB Sam Darnold only succeeded last year because of that Vikings offense. He looked average at best in week one, and it won’t be long before fans start wondering if rookie QB Jalen Milroe could do better. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had one of the more amazing stat lines in week one with 124 yards receiving on a day his starting QB only threw for 150 yards. Cooper Kupp was a non-factor, and RBs Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet split the volume right down the middle.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
If you looked at the stat line for QB Baker Mayfield and only saw 167 yards passing, you would have thought the Bucs got beat bad by the Falcons, but somehow, they managed to squeak out a win. While he had less than 200 yards, he did connect for 3 TD passes, including 2 to rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka. Bucky Irving was contained but managed to get the volume he needed to pull out a decent Fantasy Football week with 14.5 PPR points. This offense really missed Chris Godwin.
No Waiver Targets This Week
Tennessee Titans
Despite an awful stat line, rookie QB Cam Ward looked poised against a very tough Broncos’ defense. RB Tony Pollard got all the volume with Tyjae Spears on the IR and managed to grind out 89 yards in total offense. He could be an interesting trade target in leagues that allow trading if the Titans get off to a slow start in week two. When your QB only throws for 112 yards, no receivers can have a good Fantasy Football week, but not all teams they play will have this strong a defense.
Possible Waiver Addition: Rookie Elic Ayomanor was one of my favorite late WR draft picks, and he is a solid $75 bid, but is only available in 19% of FPPC leagues
Washington Commanders
After trading starting RB Brian Robinson, the door was wide open for rookie Jacory Croskey Merritt to emerge as a solid Fantasy Football starter despite being a 7th round draft pick. When veteran RB Austin Ekeler had a minor injury early in the game, the rookie who wants to be called “Bill” stepped right in and looked great. WR Terry McLaurin missed all of training camp with a contract situation and looked like he needed some more work to be ready. New addition Deebo Samuel looked like the Deebo of old, drafted as a WR1 who, when healthy, lived up to those expectations.
No Waiver Targets This Week
QB Geno Smith $25
QB Spencer Rattler $5
QB Zach Wilson $1
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RB Devin Neal $1
RB Tyler Badie $1
RB LaQuint Allen $1
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WR Kayshon Boutte $150
WR Quentin Johnson $100
WR Elic Ayomanor $75
WR Calvin Austin $75
WR Isaac TeSlaa $45
WR Ju Ju Smith Schuster $40
WR Malik Washington $5
WR Jaylin Noel $5
WR Ray Ray McCloud $5
WR Olamide Zacheus $1
WR Zay Jones $1
WR Christian Watson $1
WR Dyami Brown $1
WR Tyquain Thornton $1
WR Jalin Royals $1
WR Jordan Whittington $1
WR Tyler Johnson $1
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TE Harold Fannin $100
TE: Jake Tonges $45
TE Juwan Johnson $25
TE Michael Mayer $1
TE Tyler Conklin $1