Leaders of the Pack After Week Four

by Dennis Michelsen

Fantasy Football experts sometimes get too attached to what happened last week. In the early part of the season, it’s essential to factor in more than just a few weeks in determining who the leader is at each position. My unique ratings system utilizes four different statistical tools to obtain a consensus rating for each player. It uses data from the current season, plus the last two seasons, but each week is weighted more heavily for the current season. Let’s see who the leaders of the pack are after week four. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by scoring a huge number of points in a single week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points varies by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR,, and TE provides a consistent score to compare when making Flex starting decisions throughout the season.  

MVP25 Index

Now that we have four weeks into the season, we can start looking at the MVP Index just for the current season. The only difference in how we use the MVP25 Index versus the regular MVP Index is simple. In MVP25, we count every game playe,d while in the regular MVP Index, we only count the full games played. This is because in Fantasy Football,, we must decide whether a player is a good start each week without knowing whether that player will play a complete game. This is an accurate gauge of the value of each player in Fantasy Football for the current season. 

Upside Index 

While the MVP Index considers consistency, the Upside Index just looks at a player’s best ten games over the past two seasons plus the current season. There is a special formula to treat outlier data in a way that minimizes its impact on the overall score. There is also a special technique to allow rookies to be graded on the same percentage of games as a cagey veteran who has played more full games. Each week, the current season is weighed more to keep the data updated for this season’s performances. 

Spike Weeks in Last 10 Games

A spike week is defined as a games which a player scores around 25% more than the weekly median in Fantasy Football. This equates to 15 points for RB, WR, and TE positions and 20 points for the QB. While the median is lower for TE than for RB and WR, the exact value is used to judge a player, helping with Flex starter decisions. While the 20 points for QBs is slightly lower than 25% over the median for that position, judging each QB against each other versus the same point value, is what is most important. The last ten games played are used for this measurement and provide a current form in Fantasy Football. 

Top 15 at QB

1. Lamar Jackson- If he misses more than one week, the season is over for the Ravens

2. Josh Allen- Having to do more this year with a defense that is average at best

3. Baker Mayfield- The best bargain in Fantasy Football for 2 years in a row 

4. Jayden Daniels- Back from injury, but missing McLaurin hurts his upside value this week

5. Jalen Hurts- His WRs are showing up on milk bottles all over town, but the team keeps winning

6. Patrick Mahomes (+1) The old Mahomes magic was on display last week with a 4 TD game

7. Brock Purdy (+1) Leaning on CMC to keep this offense going strong 

8. Jared Goff (-2) Great value as an inexpensive QB2 in Super Flex leagues again this year 

9. Jordan Love (+1) Playing to his back class of 2023 so far this season 

10. Justin Fields (+1). His rushing ability gives him a solid floor every week

11. Bo Nix (+1). On his best days, he is a solid Top 5 producer, but needs better consistency 

12. Dak Prescott (+1). His defense is so awful, he will need to put 40 points up every week

13. Drake Maye (+2) Imagine how good he would be with better WRs?

14. Sam Darnold (-5) Maybe it wasn’t just the Vikings system that made him look good.

15. Caleb Williams (NEW) Emerging as one of the more dynamic QBs in the game 

Top 30 at RB

1. Christian McCaffrey (+3). Only Puka Nacua has seen more targets in the first four games.

2. Bijan Robinson (+1) should have been the consensus number one pick in Fantasy this year.

3. De’Von Achane (-2) needs more consistent QB play to be an RB1 

4. Jahmyr Gibbs (-2) Nine games of 15 or more PPR points in last 10 starts

5. Jonathon Taylor (+1) Leading the way for the most surprising team in the NFL

6. James Cook (+5) joins CMC and Puka as the only three players with a perfect MVP Index this year

7. Saquon Barkley (-2) Down a little from last season’s all-world performance

8. Kyren Williams (+1) doesn’t dazzle anyone but just keeps producing 

9. Josh Jacobs (+1) Bye week for the Packers came at the right time for him to get healthy 

10. Bucky Irving (+2) sustained an ankle injury, and his status is unknown right now 

11. Alvin Kamara (-2) Trade rumors are flying, and most destinations would be a bump up in Fantasy

12. Derrick Henry (-3) Father Time might finally be catching up to the King 

13. Quinshon Judkins (+13) is on his way to the Top 5 very soon

14. David Montgomery (-1) Losing some volume but still there to vulture TDs

15. Breece Hall- Two great games with Fields at QB 

16. Travis Etienne (+6) One of the best values in Fantasy Football at RB this season 

17. JK Dobbins (+1) Starting to lose more volume to the rookie 

18. Chase Brown (-1). His offensive line and QB play have been awful 

19. Javonte Williams (+6) Another of the best values in Fantasy Football this year 

20. Cam Skattebo- A smaller Mike Alstott with pass-catching ability 

21. Omarion Hampton (NEW) Injury to Najee Harris opens the door to high volume 

22. Ken Walker (-3) Volume split with Charbonnet will limit his upside 

23. Chuba Hubbard (-9) Bad QB play is hurting his Fantasy Football consistency this year

24. Ashton Jeanty (NEW) showed why he was the highest RB drafted in a while

25. Jaylen Warren (+2) Bye week came at the right time

26. Jordan Mason (-5) should be solid but not spectacular until Jones returns

27. D’Andre Swift (+2) should continue to get the volume needed to rise a little higher

28. Rachad White (-5). If Bucky misses some time, he could be a solid RB2 or Flex starter

29. Isiah Pacheco (-5) Volume split will make him a TD-dependent RB in Fantasy 

30. Tony Pollard (-2), saying the Titans offense has been a dumpster fire would insult dumpster fires

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Top 35 at WR

1. Puka Nacua- 50 targets and halfway to a 1000-yard season after just four games is an insane pace.

2. Amon Ra St Brown (+2) My pick for WR1 in Dynasty format is making me look good so far

3. Justin Jefferson (+4) Getting Addison back will keep defenses honest

4. Cee Dee Lamb- Might have avoided a more serious injury 

5. Davante Adams (+4), Rams WR tandem is off to a fantastic start to the season 

6. Tyreek Hill (+2). Last time you might see his name on a Top WR list after gruesome injury 

7. Keenan Allen (-1) Suddenly, lots of mouths to feed on an offense that still likes to run a lot 

8. Ja’Marr Chase (-5) Maybe the Curse of the Number One Pick is real? 

9. Nico Collins (+1) With better QB play, he could be top 5

10. Malik Nabers (-5) Last time on this list for this season after knee injury

11. Garret Wilson (+12) Third in targets for WRs after four games, as expected

12. Emeka Egbuka (+18) Best rookie WR of the 2025 class 

13. Courtland Sutton (+3) One of the few WRs I was wrong about this season 

14. George Pickens (+13) was incredible as the first option for Dak last week

15. Brian Thomas Jr (-4) Poor QB play is capping his potential this year 

16. Deebo Samuel (+9) Injury to McLaurin opens door for Top 10 upside 

17. Jordan Addison (NEW) Returned from suspension at top form 

18. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+2) Team is 31st in pass play percentage after four weeks

19. Stefon Diggs- Holding on to the top WR job for the Patriots

20. Drake London (+6) Team is 25th in pass play percentage, which caps his upside 

21. AJ Brown (-8) How can a WR with this much talent score so few Fantasy points? 

22. DJ Moore (-8) Losing that lead WR gig to Odunze

23. Jakobi Meyers (-6) remains a solid WR2 type for your Fantasy roster

24. Michael Pittman (+4) A healthy Pittman could be a Top 10 producer

25. Quentin Johnson (+10) More targets than all WRs except Nacua, Olave, and Wilson

26. Zay Flowers (+3). Without Lamar, he is barely a Top 40 WR in Fantasy Football 

27. DK Metcalf (NEW) Maybe Iron City Brewing is the Fountain of Youth for Rodgers? 

28. Chris Olave (+3). Only Nacua has more targets than Olave after 4 weeks

29. Rome Odunze (NEW) has found a special chemistry with Williams and Ben Johnson

30. Marvin Mims (NEW) is a big-play guy who offers very little consistency from week to week 

31. Terry McLaurin (-9) Injury might be worse than we initially expected

32. DeVonta Smith (-17) How can DeVonta and AJB be so bad this season? 

33. Chris Godwin (NEW) Returned from injury with 10 targets

34. Ladd McConkey (-16) I expected him to lose some targets, but not this many

35. Cooper Kupp (-11) could fall off this list soon as the second option on the run-first team

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Top 15 at TE

1. Trey McBride- Still allergic to the endzone, but still the most reliable TE in Fantasy

2. Brock Bowers- Injury has slowed him down a little

3. Mark Andrews- Loss of Lamar should lead to him falling out of the top 5 soon

4. Travis Kelce (+1). Once he starts finding the endzone again, look out

5. Tyler Warren (NEW) The new kid on the block could rise to the Top 3 

6. Johnu Smith (-2) Last season, still keeping him higher in ratings than he should be

7. Darren Waller (NEW). First game back, he looked very good with 2 TDs on limited snaps

8. Sam LaPorta (-1) Too many mouths to feed with the Lions for him to be much higher

9. Dallas Goedert (+1) The only bright spot in the Eagles' passing game so far

10. David Njoku (-4) Uncertain volume going forward with switch at QB

11. Jake Ferguson- Leads all TEs in targets after 4 weeks

12. Zach Ertz (-3) gets his QB back, and that should move him back up a few spots

13. TJ Hockenson (-5). Only 18 targets in the first four games is not Hock-like 

14. Tucker Kraft (+1) should return healthy after his Bye week

15. Hunter Henry (-1) 24 targets in the first 4 weeks, he could be on the rise to the Top 10