Next Man Up Index After Week Five

By Dennis Michelsen

“Draft the Best, Prepare for the Worst” could be the universal motto for Fantasy Football. Each year, we think we know who the best player at each position on each team will be, but we are often collectively wrong. During the season, injuries add to the chaos that is a Fantasy Football season, and we need to find the “Next Man Up.” Not all replacements are equal, nor are all situations. On this week's Science of Fantasy Football, Professor John Bush wondered whether we could develop an index to determine the perceived value of each backup RB position. Here is my attempt to present the “Next Man Up” index for each team after five weeks of the season. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historical median for Fantasy Football points differs by position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a standard metric to compare when making Flex starting decisions all season.

Next Man Up Index Concept 

The MVP Index has proven to be a reliable tool in Fantasy Football. It assigns a single number to each player's “Upside Consistency” for the season. Using this number gives us a first guess of the value of every team’s RB position in case there is an opening during the season. The replacement for a stud like Bujan Robinson has more upside than the replacement on a team like the Titans, who have struggled on offense so far this season. Past studies have shown that while some RBs do better, most only produce 60-80% of the points of the starting RB. That makes sense since IF they were better than the starter, they would have had the job in the first place. The Next Man Up Index will use a standard 70% replacement factor and then score each player based on the confidence level that they are the next man up for the team. 

Atlanta Falcons

Starter’s MVP25 150

Next Man Up: Tyler Allgeier 70% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 74

Arizona Cardinals

Starter’s MVP25 67

Next Man Up: Bam Knight 60% confidence

Next Man Up Value 28 

Baltimore Ravens

Starter’s MVP25 40

Next Man Up: Justice Hill 60% confidence

Next Man Up Value 17

Buffalo Bills

Starter’s MVP25 140

Next Man Up: Ray Davis 90% confidence

Next Man Up Value 88

Carolina Panthers

Starter’s MVP25 50

Next Man Up: Rico Dowdle 90% confidence

New Man Up Value 32

Chicago Bears

Starter’s MVP25 75

Next Man Up: Kyle Monangai 90% confidence

Next Man Up Value 47

Cincinnati Bengals 

Starters MVP25 60 

Next Man Up: Tahj Brooks 90% confidence

Next Man Up Value 57

Cleveland Browns

Starters MVP25 125

Next Man Up: Dylan Sampson 60% confidence

Next Man Up Value 53

Dallas Cowboys

Starters MVP25 160

Next Man Up: Jaydon Blue 90% confidence

Next Man Up Value 101

Denver Broncos

Starters MVP25 100

Next Man Up: RJ Harvey 80% confidence

Next Man Up Value 56

Detroit Lions

Starters MVP25 120 (Gibbs) and 80 (Montgomery) 

Next Man Up: Craig Reynolds or Sione Vaki 50% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 42 or 28 

Green Bay Packers

Starters MVP25 125

Next Man Up: Emmanuel Wilson 70% confidence

Next Man Up Value 61

Houston Texans

Starters MVP25 40 

Next Man Up: Woody Marks 90% confidence

Next Man Up Value 25

Indianapolis Colts

Starters MVP25 160

Next Man Up: DJ Giddens 80% confidence

Next Man Up Value 89

Jacksonville Jaguars

Starters MVP25 80 

Next Man Up: Bhayshul Tuten 80% confidence

Next Man Up Value 45 

Kansas City Chiefs

Starters MVP25 55

Next Man Up: Brashard Smith 70% 

Next Man Up Value 27

Los Angeles Chargers 

Starters MVP25 80

Next Man Up: Kimani Vidal 70% confidence

Next Man Up Value 45

Los Angeles Rams

Starters MVP25 120

Next Man Up: Blake Corum 60% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 50

Las Vegas Raiders

Starters MVP25 80

Next Man Up: Raheem Mostert 50% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 28

Miami Dolphins

Starters MVP25 120

Next Man Up: Ollie Gordon 70% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 59

Minnesota Vikings

Starters MVP25 80

Next Man Up: Cam Akers 60%

Next Man Up Value 34

New England Patriots

Starters MVP25 20

Next Man Up: TreVeyon Henderson 90%

Next Man Up Value 13

New Orleans Saints

Starters MVP25 60

Next Man Up: Kendre Miller 80% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 34

New York Giants 

Starters MVP25 80

Next Man Up: Tyrone Tracy 90% confidence

Next Man Up Value 50

New York Jets

Starters MVP25 60

Next Man Up: Isiah Davis 90%

Next Man Up Value 38

Philadelphia Eagles

Starters MVP25 80

Next Man Up: AJ Dillon 70% confidence

Next Man Up Value 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 

Starters MVP25 100

Next Man Up: Kenneth Gainwell 60% confidence

Next Man Up Value 42

Seattle Seahawks

Starters MVP25 60

Next Man Up: Zach Charbonnet 90%

Next Man Up Value 38

San Francisco 49ers 

Starters MVP25 200

Next Man Up: Brian Robinson 50% confidence

Next Man Up Value 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers  

Starters MVP25 125

Next Man Up: Rashad White 90% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 79

Tennessee Titans 

Starters MVP25 60

Next Man Up: Tyjae Spears 90% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 38 

Washington Commanders

Starters MVP25 133

Next Man Up: Chris Rodriguez 60% confidence 

Next Man Up Value 56 

Conclusion

More research will be needed before using these numbers with great confidence, but it might be a good start to assign a value to each RB position, should it come open. If a starter has an MVP25 Index below 80, they may also be replaced due to poor performance. 

The RBs on the hot seat are shown here in team alphabetical order. 

1. Michael Carter AZ 

2. Chuba Hubbard CAR

3. D’Andre Swift CHI

4. Nick Chubb HOU

5. Pacheco and Hunt KC

6. Rhamondre Stevenson NE

7. Tony Pollard TENN

The second list is the expected “Next Man Up” index values, top 10 shown in value order. 

1. DJ Giddens IND

2. Ray Davis BUF

3. Rachad White TB

4. Tyler Allgaier ATL

5. Brian Robinson SF

6. Jaydon Blue DAL

7. Emmanuel Wilson GB

8. Ollie Gordon MIA

9. Tahj Brooks CIN

10. RJ Harvey DEN 

Rostering the backup RBs for the “Hot Seat RBs” and adding the top 10 in the “Next Man Up” index would be a good idea if they are available. If you wait until either an injury makes the next man up the starter or the replacement is announced, you will spend more of your FAAB money to acquire them for your team.