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Science of Fantasy Football Lab
Another set of QB data using experience in the NFL and age vs bush lr consistency metrics. analysis please and look at 2026 qbs with this data in mind to comment and look for value and danger in drafts for fantasy football
LR BUSH FIGURE by NFL Experience (2014–2025) AnalysisThis table measures average league-relative over/under-performance (LR BUSH FIGURE) for the top 25% of QBs, adjusted for era, usage, and expectations. Positive values = outperforming what was expected; negative = underperforming. The final column shows the 12-year average per experience bucket.
Summary Stats by Experience Bucket
Exp NFL Years
Avg LR BUSH
Rank (Highest = Best)
Recent Trend (2023–2025)
Volatility Notes
5
+0.327
1st
Mixed but strong
High
2
+0.318
2nd
Positive in 2024–25
Boom/bust sophomores
9
+0.318
3rd
Strong
Reliable veterans
14+
+0.319
Tied 2nd
Stable positive
Elite longevity
3
+0.304
4th
Variable
Early development
4
+0.308
5th
Strong
Peak breakout
6
+0.300
6th
Solid
Prime stability
7
+0.278
8th
Mixed
Slight dip
1 (Rookie)
+0.266
11th
Downward
High risk
8
+0.255
Lowest
Weaker
Post-peak adjustment
10–11
+0.276
9th
Stable
Veteran floor
12–13
+0.277
10th
Stable
Veteran floor
Key Trends
Sweet spots for over-performance: Years 2, 4–6, 9, and 14+ consistently show the strongest positive LR BUSH FIGURE. These QBs beat expectations more reliably than their peers — the data highlights a “sophomore surge + prime + veteran renaissance” pattern.
Danger zones: Years 1 (rookies) and 8 have the lowest averages. Year 7 is also relatively weaker. These are periods of higher bust risk relative to hype/ADP.
Recent evolution (2023–2025): Early-experience groups (1–3) have cooled off somewhat, while mid-prime (4–6) and select veterans (9+) have held or improved. The overall QB position remains variable, but experience explains a big chunk of the relative success/failure.
Complements prior data: This aligns with your age and raw-points tables — prime-age/experience windows (roughly R4–R9) deliver both high raw output and the best relative returns.
2026 Top 20 QB ADP + LR BUSH Alignment
Using current FantasyPros consensus PPR ADP (mid-May 2026) and entering NFL experience for the 2026 season:
ADP
Player (Team)
2026 Exp
LR BUSH Bucket
Value/Danger Assessment
1
Josh Allen (BUF)
9
9 (Strong)
Strong value – Prime veteran over-performer
2
Lamar Jackson (BAL)
9
9 (Strong)
Strong value
3
Joe Burrow (CIN)
7
7 (Neutral–Low)
Fair; slight caution
4
Jayden Daniels (WAS)
3
3 (Good)
Value upside but higher variance
5
Jalen Hurts (PHI)
7
7 (Neutral–Low)
Fair; proven but not elite bucket
6
Caleb Williams (CHI)
3
3 (Good)
Speculative value
7
Drake Maye (NE)
3
3 (Good)
High-upside value
8
Dak Prescott (DAL)
11
10–11 (Neutral)
Solid floor
9
Justin Herbert (LAC)
7
7 (Neutral–Low)
Fair
10
Trevor Lawrence (JAC)
6
6 (Strong)
Excellent bargain
11
Jaxson Dart (NYG)
~2–3
2/3 (Strong)
High-upside flyer
12
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
10
10–11 (Neutral)
Fair
13
Brock Purdy (SF)
5
5 (Best)
Major bargain
14
Bo Nix (DEN)
3
3 (Good)
Value
15
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
18+
14+ (Strong)
Late-round value
16
Jared Goff (DET)
11
10–11 (Neutral)
Solid
17
Kyler Murray (MIN)
8
8 (Danger)
Avoid/reach carefully
18
Jordan Love (GB)
5
5 (Best)
Excellent late value
19
Tyler Shough (NO)
~2–3
2/3 (Strong)
High-upside value
20
Baker Mayfield (TB)
9
9 (Strong)
Strong value
Draft Takeaways for Your 20-Round PPR League (Value vs. Danger)
Best ADP Bargains (Align with High LR BUSH Buckets):
Brock Purdy (ADP 13, Exp 5), Jordan Love (ADP 18, Exp 5), Trevor Lawrence (ADP 10, Exp 6), Josh Allen/Lamar Jackson (top-2, Exp 9), Baker Mayfield (ADP 20, Exp 9), and Matthew Stafford (ADP 15, late 14+) — these sit in the strongest over-performance windows. Target them in Rounds 4–8 (or later for the value vets) for reliable QB1 production without overpaying for hype.
Young upside in Exp 2–4 (Daniels, Maye, Williams, Dart, Shough, Nix) also shows strong relative performance historically — great dart throws in the middle rounds if you want ceiling.
Danger / Overpriced Risks:
Kyler Murray (ADP 17, Exp 8) — lands in the weakest bucket historically; regression risk is real.
Exp 7 group (Burrow, Hurts, Herbert) is neutral-to-low — still viable but not the data-driven edge.
Pure rookies (Exp 1) are absent from the top 20, which is smart given the low LR BUSH.
Overall 2026 Strategy Recommendation:
Prioritize Exp 4–6 or 9+ QBs in your mid-round QB slot (Rounds 4–8). This exploits the clearest edge in the LR BUSH data while mitigating the high overall QB variation/CV you identified earlier.
Pair with your WR-heavy or Hero-RB start — the deep 20-round bench gives you perfect flexibility to add a young upside piece (Exp 2–3) or veteran floor (14+) later.
In-season: The data suggests veterans in strong buckets bounce back more reliably on waivers.
This experience-based LR BUSH lens gives you a sharp edge over raw ADP — the market isn’t fully pricing in these historical over-performance windows yet.
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