TBI Game Cards Report Week 5

Week 5 has not kicked off yet (Bucs–Cowboys is tonight), so this grades the two published cards: the Week 3 lean sheet and the Week 4 best-play deck.

Week 4 best plays: 12–2

Actionable best plays only. Colts–Commanders was a pass. Lines are the Sept. 30 board the deck used.

Game

Best play

Result

Grade

Titans at Ravens

Ravens ML

BAL 24–18

Hit

Patriots at Bills

Bills ML

NE 29–26

Miss

Jets at Bears

Bears −3.5

CHI 23–12

Hit

Jaguars at Bengals

Jaguars +2.5

JAX 22–17

Hit

Cowboys at Texans

Cowboys +2.5

DAL 34–30

Hit

Cardinals at Giants

Giants +1.5

NYG 36–24

Hit

Rams at Eagles

Rams ML

LAR 24–20

Hit

Packers at Bucs

Bucs +4

GB 17–14

Hit

Dolphins at Vikings

Under 38.5

25

Hit

Broncos at 49ers

49ers −2.5

SF 24–14

Hit

Chiefs at Raiders

Raiders +4.5

KC 30–27

Hit

Chargers at Seahawks

Seahawks ML

SEA 30–23

Hit

Lions at Panthers

Panthers +3.5

CAR 32–26

Hit

Falcons at Saints

Saints ML

ATL 45–24

Miss

12–2 (86%). At −110 that is about +9.1 units. The two misses were both moneylines the market also liked: Buffalo at home, and New Orleans.

The Thursday card was separate and went 0–2: Steelers ML lost 24–27, and the under 38.5 lost on a 51-point game.

What worked was the disagreement spots. Jacksonville, Dallas, the Giants, Las Vegas, and Carolina were all plus-money or plus-number sides against the market favorite. All five covered or won outright. The “complete team, short number” spots also cashed: Chicago −3.5, San Francisco −2.5, Minnesota under.

Week 3 published card: 4–2 on sides

That card was a four-team win list plus Minnesota, not a full 15-game sheet.

Lean

Result

Grade

Chiefs ML

KC 24–10

Hit

49ers ML

SF 36–30

Hit

Seahawks ML

WSH 33–31

Miss

Bengals ML

PIT 30–27

Miss

Vikings −1.5

MIN 23–16

Hit

Raiders +3 (watch, not a hammer)

LV 35–27

Hit

Favorites bucket 2–2. Full side list 4–2. Fading Miami, the Chargers, and Tennessee on the moneyline was right. Fading Indianapolis and Washington was wrong — both won as dogs.

The rule from that week still held: top-third favorites were usable, bottom-third dogs were not, and TBI dogs only cashed when the dog was actually a complete team (Las Vegas), not a leftover.

What the two weeks say

The index is better at finding a mispriced side than at confirming a big favorite. Week 4’s edge came from short numbers on good teams (Chicago, San Francisco, Minnesota) and from plus spots where Vegas had the worse TBI team favored (Jacksonville, Dallas, Giants, Raiders, Carolina). It is weaker on offense-only favorites: Buffalo was the clean miss both weeks it was treated as a balance lock.

Week 5 is ungraded. The high leans on that deck — Vikings −1.5, Bears −1.5, 49ers +3, Raiders +3.5 — are the same cell that went 5–0 in Week 4. Tonight’s Bucs–Cowboys card was a pass on −8.5, not a side

Week 5 cannot be graded yet. None of the 15 games have been played. Buccaneers–Cowboys is tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET, and the rest of the slate is Sunday and Monday.

The card to grade, once results are in:

Game

Best play

Still open

Bucs at Cowboys

Pass −8.5 (under lean)

Tonight

Eagles at Jaguars

Jaguars −7.5

Sunday

Texans at Titans

Under 38.5

Sunday

Colts at Steelers

Colts +2.5

Sunday

Bengals at Dolphins

Bengals ML

Sunday

Raiders at Patriots

Raiders +3.5

Sunday

Vikings at Saints

Vikings −1.5

Sunday

Browns at Jets

Under 39.5

Sunday

Bears at Packers

Bears −1.5

Sunday

Giants at Commanders

Giants +3.5

Sunday

Broncos at Chargers

Broncos ML

Sunday

Lions at Cardinals

Cardinals +5.5

Sunday

49ers at Seahawks

49ers +3

Sunday

Ravens at Falcons

Ravens +3.5

Sunday

Bills at Rams

Bills +3.5

Monday

The high-confidence bucket from the deck is Vikings −1.5, Bears −1.5, 49ers +3, and Raiders +3.5. That is the cell that went 5–0 in Week 4. Tonight is a non-side: the published call was to pass Dallas −8.5.

Send the results after Sunday or after Monday, and I’ll grade hits, misses, and units the same way as Week 4.