Opportunity Index for 2025 

We hear the so-called Fantasy Football experts debate which player has the most talent every season. Success in the first year of a rookie’s career can usually be attributed more to opportunity. The MVP Index I have developed over the last 10 years has been a successful tool in deciding which player might significantly impact your Fantasy Football team’s success. The MVP Index shows upside consistency every week, which is very important in a game that counts points every week. Data studies have shown that players with a low MVP Index the year before are more likely to be replaced the following season. I have developed an “Opportunity Index” for Fantasy Football using this data. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season.

Opportunity Research

Over the years, I have spotted opportunities in Fantasy Football by looking at the roster and understanding that there was a lack of experienced high scorers in Fake Football at a particular position. Two years ago, there wasn’t a single Rams RB who had an MVP Index over 80, and only 1 WR with an MVP Index over 80. As a result, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua were targeted in Fantasy Football drafts that year. Despite being an outstanding talent, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba had two high-performing WRs ahead of him on the Seahawks' depth chart. Last year, Chase Brown was going up against veteran RB Zach Moss, who had never posted an MVP index over 82. Rome Odunze had two high-performing Fantasy Football WRs ahead of him on the Bears depth chart. 

Professor John Bush pointed out that these results were terrific, but what was the level of MVP Index that showed a player could hold the job the following season? Research was done over the past 4 seasons, and the results at RB were a little surprising. I had hypothesized that the key number was only an MVP Score of 80, but the research showed that of the 65 RBs replaced, their previous year's MVP Index was all less than 100. 70% of those who kept their job the next season had posted an MVP Index over 100. While these were small sample sizes, comparing players to 100 to develop an Opportunity Index made logical sense. The median score for Top 12 at RB or WR is also 100. Since the drop off in scoring is significantly greater among the Top 12 at TE, I decided to use the threshold value of an MVP Index of 55 at TE, equivalent to TE6 production. The Opportunity Index could be calculated for each player for 2025 at RB1, WR1, WR2, and TE1 using the median production levels over the past 5 seasons.

Opportunity Index at RB for 2025

Looking at opportunities for this season, we compare to last year’s leading player at the position, who is back with the team this season. We then look at players with under 3 years of experience and any veterans changing teams with a history of an MVP Index at a high enough level to be considered a potential starter in Fantasy Football.

Unsurprisingly, the top drafted rookie RB also has the highest Opportunity Index, which justifies Ashton Jeanty as an odds-on favorite to take over the lead RB spot with the Raiders. RJ Harvey is close behind at 87, followed by either rookie Jaydon Blue or veteran Miles Sanders, whose career-best MVP Index was 83. There are seven RB situations with an MVP Index of over 50. 

Opportunity Index at WR for 2025

Looking at opportunities at WR is slightly different since both starting WRs on a team could be viable starters in Fantasy Football lineups. A baseline value of 100 was used to establish the MVP Index at WR1, with 80 used for WR2 since those correspond to WR1 and WR2 starters based on the past five years of research on the MVP Index. Some players will show up competing for both positions.

Matthew Golden is the only WR1 with an Opportunity Index of over 50. Fellow rookie WRs Elic Ayomanor and Kyle Williams are close behind in 2nd and 3rd place at the WR1 position. Six WR1s have an Opportunity Index of 30 or more. 

Since the baseline score to set the WR2 Opportunity Index is 20 points lower, it’s logical that the population of WRs over 50 for an Opportunity Index is greater, with a total of 13 positions qualifying. Matthew Golden is the only player with a score of over 50 in both categories, so even if he fails to beat Jayden Reed out for WR1 on the Packers, he could still take over the WR2 spot. Rookies Jayden Higgins and Jack Bech have great opportunities to take over the WR2 role for their new teams. 

Seven teams have new TEs on their roster heading into the 2025 season, whose remaining TE had an MVP Index of less than zero last season. The TEs to target include first-round TE draft picks Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren. 

Conclusion

The theory behind the Opportunity Index has been utilized for the past 3 seasons, but this is the first time I attempted to put an absolute number to the situation. More research is being done to see just how unique the RB situation might be for this season, but it does appear that we have an abnormal number of open RB races heading into training camp. Some of the conclusions here were obvious, but a few stand out, like Matten Golden’s situation in Green Bay. While it is true that many NFL competent WRs are competing for targets, only Jayden Reed has posted an MVP Index of 80 or higher in his career, and last year he posted an MVP Index of only 60. Reed is also the only Packers WR to post a Best Ten Game MVP over 70. Opportunity Index will be used in a Beta Test in 2025, and the results will help improve this process.