Science of Fantasy Football Lab

Science of Fantasy Football

Player Versus Player: Ladd McConkey Versus AJ Brown By Dennis Michelsen

Player Versus Player: Ladd McConkey Versus AJ Brown

By Dennis Michelsen

During every Fantasy Football draft, we are faced with making many decisions between players of equal value. Many factors go into the determination of which player to roster and which to leave for someone else. On that rare occasion, we get a two-for-one deal where the player we passed on is available with our next pick, but that is rare. Starting this week, we will examine two players being debated by Fantasy Football Twitter, and I will utilize the MVP Index and other analyses to determine which player we should draft. Today, we look at two WRs who I would be glad to have on my roster, AJ Brown versus Ladd McConkey.

ADP information used will be based on the most recent data from FPPC and Fantasy Pros

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. Median performance levels for each position using the MVP Index have been established based on the past five seasons.

QB Top 3: 130 Top 6: 105 Top 9: 85 Top 12: 75 Top 15: 60

RB Top 3: 125 Top 6: 115 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 70 Top 30: 55

WR Top 3: 130 Top 6: 120 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 75 Top 30: 60

TE Top 3: 80 Top 6: 55 Top 9: 45 Top 12: 30

AJ Brown Analysis

AJ Brown has been a solid producer at WR in Fantasy Football over the years. He has posted an MVP Index of 133.3, 106.3, and 100 over the past three seasons. This MVP has ranged from WR3 to WR12 level each of the last three seasons. He is entering his age-28 season, and research has shown that it is prime time for WRs in Fantasy Football production. Last year, the Eagles' defense was much improved, and their passing frequency dropped, but AJ Brown still was an elite producer in the Fake Football world. After winning the Super Bowl last season, free agency hurt the Eagles on the defensive side of the ball, but they should still have a Top 5 defense. There were no significant changes on the offensive side of the ball in free agency or the NFL draft. I expect a slight increase in passing from the Eagles this season.

Ladd McConkey Analysis

Ladd McConkey had a terrific rookie season in the NFL. Sometimes rookies are slow to get going in Fantasy Football production, and McConkey was no different, with only two of his first four games over 10 PPR points and his only sub-5 point of the season coming in game two, where he only played 49% of the offensive snaps. He finished the season strong with six straight games over 10 PPR points, with two of those games over 20. This year, the Chargers added lots of talent to the offensive side of the ball with RB Omarion Hampton, WR Tre Harris, and TE Oronde Gadsden, said in the NFL draft. They also added RB Najee Harris and TE Tyler Conklin in free agency and even brought back veteran WR Mike Williams. This offense should be even better this year, but will it be even more run-heavy is the big question.

ADP Analysis

In the current FPPC drafts, Ladd McConkey is going at pick 20 WR10 with AJ Brown at pick 21 WR11. The Fantasy Pros consensus shows AJ Brown going at pick 16 WR10 with Ladd McConkey going at pick 19 WR11. A team manager would likely be able to draft both WRs this year unless they pick both ahead of their ADP at the 1st/2nd round turn, which makes this a great player versus player comparison.

MVP Data Comparison

Last year, in his rookie year, Ladd McConkey posted an MVP Index of 93.3 with a Best 10 Game MVP of 130. AJ Brown had an MVP Index of 133.3, which was his third straight year over the elite 100 level. AJ posted a Best 10 Game MVP of 150. AJ Brown missed four games last season, and while his 7 TDs in 13 games played were a slightly higher rate per game than the year before, it was not significantly higher than what we have seen in the past. McConkey should be able to play back to his Best 10 Game MVP for the entire season, which other prominent WRs have been able to do in the past.

Ladd McConkey Forecast: MVP 100 with a range of 75 to 125

AJ Brown Forecast: MVP 115 with a range of 70 to 135

Conclusion

Both players have an MVP Index forecast over 100 with a ceiling forecast of 125 or higher. This MVP Level makes either player a good pick around the WR10-12 range. The Eagles may pass more than the Chargers this season, although both offenses will have the luxury of strong defenses, allowing them to play from the lead and rely on a strong rushing game throughout the season. The addition of pass catchers to the Chargers offense could lead to a slightly lower target share for McConkey. Meanwhile, there should be no change to the volume for AJ Brown in the Eagles' offense. This choice is a very close decision between two excellent WRs who will be significant producers in Fantasy Football again this year.

Decision: AJ Brown gets the slight edge based on his consistent performance over the last three seasons.

Page updated

Google Sites

Report abuse