Player Versus Player: Cee Dee Lamb Versus Malik Nabers

By Dennis Michelsen

During every Fantasy Football draft, we are faced with making many decisions between players of equal value. Many factors go into the determination of which player to roster and which to leave for someone else. On that rare occasion, we get a two-for-one deal where the player we passed on is available with our next pick, but that is rare. Starting this week, we will look at two players being debated by Fantasy Football Twitter, and I will use the MVP Index and other analysis to find which player we should draft.  

ADP information used will be based on the most recent data from FPPC and Fantasy Pros

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. Median performance levels for each position using the MVP Index have been established based on the past five seasons. 

QB Top 3: 130 Top 6: 105 Top 9: 85 Top 12: 75 Top 15: 60

RB Top 3: 125 Top 6: 115 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 70 Top 30: 55

WR Top 3: 130 Top 6: 120 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 75 Top 30: 60

TE Top 3: 80 Top 6: 55 Top 9: 45 Top 12: 30

Cee Dee Lamb Analysis

Cee Dee Lamb has been a terrific player since entering the league. Last year, with QB Dak Prescott missing most of the season, his MVP Index fell to 106.7, after finishing at 141.2 in 2023 and 111.8 when Dak missed time in 2022. Entering his age-26 season with a healthy Dak Prescott, we should see another terrific season from Lamb, if Dak can stay healthy. Spare parts will again handle the Cowboys' rushing attack as they failed to draft a rookie RB early once again. Their defense should improve with a return to health, so they might not be playing from behind as often. They added George Pickens to their WR Room, which should keep double coverage away from Lamb. 

Malik Nabers Analysis

 Malik Nabers had a terrific rookie season with less-than-great QB play with the Giants last season. He posted an MVP Index of 126.7 and a Best 10 Game MVP of 150. Over the last few seasons, the Best 10 Game MVP as a rookie has been a good guide for the upside of a player in his second year. The Giants added to their RB Room but did not make a significant move to their WR room in the offseason. Once again, the Giants' defense should be robust. Last year, Nabers had four different quarterbacks, and this year, he could also see multiple quarterbacks during the season. But Russel Wilson, Jameis Winston, and rookie Jaxson Dart might all be better for his Fantasy Football production than the four QBs he had last year. 

ADP Analysis

In the latest ADP from FPPC, Lamb is going as pick 7 with Nabers at pick ten overall. The latest Fantasy Pros consensus ADP shows Lamb at pick five and Nabers at pick 8. It is doubtful for any Fantasy Football team to land both Lamb and Nabers this season, which makes this a great player-versus-player matchup. 

 MVP Data Comparison

 Cee Dee Lamb’s MVP Index for 2024 was 106.7 with a Best 10 Game MVP of 120, and he has a high of 141.2 over the past 3 seasons. Malik Nabers’ MVP Index as a rookie last season was 126.7 with a Best 10 Game MVP of 140. The Cowboys' offense should improve if Dak Prescott can stay healthy. The Giants' offense should be more consistent with better QB play. Fantasy Football forecasting is about a range of logical outcomes for players that would account for 70-80% of their likely outcomes for the upcoming season. Here are the expected ranges for Lamb and Nabers for the 2025 season. 

Cee Dee Lamb: Forecast MVP 120 with a range of 100 to 145

Malik Nabers: Forecast MVP 125 with a range of 80 to 140

Conclusion

Both players have a forecasted MVP Index over 120, which makes both players great candidates to be your first pick in the draft as early as pick 4. The Giants' offensive question marks are why I give Nabers a lower floor, and Prescott’s return is why Lamb got a slightly higher ceiling. Both teams have some reason to be concerned about their offense, so it comes right down to the player.  Malik Nabers showed last year that he could perform well without a solid quarterback, and he may receive much better quarterback play this season. Cee Dee Lamb has been terrific with Dak Prescott under center but has never had a WR2 on his team with as much upside potential as George Pickens. The best news is that regardless of who you choose between these two players, you are likely to yield a Top 3 Stud at WR. This choice is another very close decision. 

Decision: Malik Nabers gets the slight edge betting on the second-year QB who showed he is QB-proof last season versus a player who has been QB-dependent in the past.