Player Versus Player Marvin Harrison Jr Versus Rashee Rice 

By Dennis Michelsen

During every Fantasy Football draft, we are faced with making many decisions between players of equal value. Many factors go into the determination of which player to roster and which to leave for someone else. On that rare occasion, we get a two-for-one deal where the player we passed on is available with our next pick, but that is rare. Starting this week, we will look at two players being debated by Fantasy Football Twitter, and I will use the MVP Index and other analyses to find which player we should draft. Today I decided between Marvin Harrison Jr and Rashee Rice. 

ADP information used will be based on the most recent data from FPPC and Fantasy Pros

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. Median performance levels for each position using the MVP Index have been established based on the past five seasons. 

QB Top 3: 130 Top 6: 105 Top 9: 85 Top 12: 75 Top 15: 60

RB Top 3: 125 Top 6: 115 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 70 Top 30: 55

WR Top 3: 130 Top 6: 120 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 75 Top 30: 60

TE Top 3: 80 Top 6: 55 Top 9: 45 Top 12: 30

Marvin Harrison Jr Analysis

Marvin Harrison Jr had a perfect rookie season in real football but failed to live up to the unreal expectations of the Fantasy Football world. Eight hundred eighty-five yards and 6 TDs is not horrible. Still, when you are being selected as WR9 with the 16th overall pick in PPR Redraft leagues, that is not good enough, especially when fellow rookies Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr had better seasons. The Cardinals didn’t add much on the offensive side of the ball in the NFL Draft or via free agency that might affect MHJ’s volume going forward.  

Rashee Rice Analysis

Rashee Rice was off to a fantastic start last year before his own QB took him out during an interception return. He was on pace to be well over 1000 yards and double-digit TDS. The Chiefs' offense didn’t look nearly as solid after his departure. Last year’s rookie phenom, Xavier Worthy, did come on strong at the end of the season, just like Rice did in his rookie season. It appears Rice will avoid a suspension for his driving issues last Summer. The Chiefs added two talented pieces for their offense with late-round picks, but neither should cut into Rice’s potential volume. The Chiefs' defense might be a little more vulnerable this season, and they added a solid LT in the draft, which should help the passing game. 

ADP Analysis

 Marvin Harrison Jr is being taken at pick 32 overall WR17 with Rashee Rice taken at pick 31 WR15 in FPPC 1QB redraft leagues. Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP for 1QB PPR leagues has Rice at pick 21 WR12 and Marvin Harrison Jr at pick 27 WR15. While it is possible you could roster both WRs at these values, depend

ing on draft position, they are close enough in ADP to make this a great comparison. 

MVP Data Comparison

Marvin Harrison Jr’s MVP Index last season as a rookie was 50 for WR38 level with a Best 10 Game MVP of 100. Rashee Rice had an incomplete season with only four games played, but his MVP Index was 133.3 after posting an 86.7 as a rookie. In his last 10 full games played, his MVP Index was 120. Both players have challenging forecasts for 2025, with numerous moving parts that could impact each player’s volume. 

Marvin Harrison Jr Forecast: 75 with a range of 50 to 100 

Rashee Rice Forecast: 100 with a range of 80 to 130 

Conclusion

Marvin Harrison should improve from last season’s MVP of 50, but it’s a question of how much improvement we might see with a dominant target hog in Trey McBride still ahead of him in the passing game. Rashee Rice is unlikely to live up to his three full-game MVPs last season, but that must be considered his possible ceiling. Will Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and the two rookie additions on the Chiefs offense reduce Rice’s volume? MHJ’s and Rice’s logical range of outcomes overlap, making either player a possible choice; however, in close calls, I usually default to the better offense. 

Decision: Rashee Rice gets the edge because I expect the Chiefs to score more points than the Cardinals.