Philosophically Speaking

Philosophically Speaking

The worst problem I see Fantasy Football players making is to be too reactionary to what just happened. We see this every week, especially early in the season, when some undrafted player scores 15 PPR points on three catches and 2 TDs. How often do we see that player still stuck on 2 TDs for the season by week 15? You must have a solid game plan to improve as a Fantasy Football player. The first thing you can do is keep a sound diary of past moves to discover your strengths and weaknesses in Fake Football. Today, I will get philosophical about how my game plan in fantasy football has evolved over the past 30 years. 

Weekly Value in Fantasy Football

Too many Fantasy Football players still pay too much attention to the total points scored in a season. Many years ago, like many people who thought they were good at Fake Football, I made my year-end projections for players. For the first few years, my forecasts were awful. They were accurate over the next 10 years when you removed injuries from the equation and equalized my predictions on a points-per-game basis. A curious thing happened. My Return on Investment (ROI) worsened as my player projections improved! Like the old fat man in the bathtub, I had my EUREKA moment. Total points are almost worthless in Fantasy Football regarding success in the game. Why? Fantasy Football is a weekly game, so it makes sense that weekly value matters more than a season total. 

Points Per Game: A Colossal Mistake

Once I realized that total points tell us who stayed healthy during a particular season, I was searching for a better way to predict Fantasy Football. Since Fake Football is a weekly game, points per game must be the secret to success, right? This concept made logical sense until I had my second EUREKA moment. One or two massive games can inflate a player’s weekly value when you look at points per game since we are dealing with small sample sizes in Fantasy Football.

Here is an example. 2+2+2+50+2+2+2+40 is equal to 12+12+12+12+12+12+12+12

Which player will most help your Fantasy Football team over that eight-game stretch? The trouble with that boom/bust player is that after the first three games of 2 points each, he is probably riding the bench when he scores 50. Even IF you played him all eight games, he only helped you win 2 weeks but put you in jeopardy to lose six times. Points per game can be a deceiving statistic. 

Weekly Consistency Matters 

I have improved so much over the past 30 years as a Fantasy Football player because I am smart enough to realize I don’t know everything. Reading articles from bright minds in the Fantasy Football has made me more intelligent because I am always willing to learn. One of those brilliant minds I stumbled upon many years ago was Bob Lung, the Godfather of Consistency in Fantasy Football. Too many in fantasy football look at the chaotic scoring in fake football and declare, “No player in fake football is consistent from week to week.” That is 100% true, but as Bob Lung has shown us for many years, “Some players are more consistent than others.” We need a way to measure that consistency that makes sense. Bob Lung’s articles on the subject encouraged me to find a way to measure consistency that made sense and could lead to more success in Fantasy Football. 

Weekly Values are Born 

Thanks to FootballGuys.com displaying Top 12 finishes in Fantasy Football every week, I thought I had my metric to track. If I look at how often a player hits the top 12 throughout a season and turns that into its index, I will have a significant number to compare players. It would also be a manageable number to compute because most of the work was done for me! I put this method to work for a few seasons and once again discovered that it didn’t improve my ROI in Fantasy Football. 

There must be a reason this didn’t work; it seemed like a brilliant idea, so it was time to do a data study. Once I discovered how variable finishing in the Top 12 was on any given week, it was apparent why my new method didn’t work. How many points a player scored and how often he scored a significant number were the keys to success in fantasy football, which I knew from years of playing this game. 

I measured the best 10 games for each player during the previous season and compared that number to other players. This approach gave me a new metric to measure players and my first “Upside Consistency” metric. This method was refined over the next few years. Since the birth of weekly values 15 years ago, my ROI in Fantasy Football has been positive each season! However, despite success, since I am a scientist, I knew that while this data was important, it was just one way to look at Fantasy Football consistency. 

MVP Index is Born

Fantasy Football analysts' biggest mistake is working independently instead of collaborating with other smart people in the business. Over three and a half years ago, I started working on a podcast with Professor John Bush at FakePigskin.com. Before and after the podcast, we shared our ideas on Fantasy Football to see if we could develop better ideas. 

I was always saying on the podcast that players can do three things each week that might affect the outcome of your Fantasy Football matchup. 

1. They can score a ton of points and help you win. 

2. They can have an awful week and help you lose. 

3. They can score enough points to keep you in the match. 

The wise professor researched the numbers more than I had over the years and showed me his calculations of median points scored at each position. This collaboration led me to another “Fat Guy in the Tub” moment, and the MVP Index was born! 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a vast points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historic median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the landmark median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. The index is calculated for individual seasons and a two-year window, which has been shown through my research to indicate a player’s future potential for the next season. 

The Two-Year Window Mistake

Scientists hate small sample sizes when doing a research project. In fantasy football, we only have a sample size of 17 games, a maximum each year to grade a player. Making meaningful statistical conclusions with only 17 data points is impossible. This conclusion led me to calculate the MVP Index based on a two-season sample size. 

Once again, a research project by The Professor changed my mind on the ideal sample size for computing a Fantasy Football metric for the next season. This idea moved me into my research study on the MVP Index for the past five seasons, leading me to a startling conclusion. Too much happens with a team each season to make a two-year sample representative of what might happen the following season. Even within a single season, the players on offense and defense can change due to injuries. That problem gets compounded over two years. Let’s look at an example from last season. 

Patrick Mahomes's 2023 MVP was 75; in 2022, his MVP was 152.9. Combined with those two seasons, his two-year MVP was 115 heading into the 2024 season. Forecasting a base score of 115 instead of 75 is a huge difference. Back in 2022, the defense of the Chiefs was not nearly as solid as it was in either 2023 or expected to be for 2024. Mahomes had to throw the ball more; therefore, his upside consistency was more significant in 2022 than in the last two seasons. This finding illustrates why using a two-year window for the MVP Index might mislead us on a player’s strength for the next season. Mahomes's MVP for 2024 was 87.5, which is much closer to his 2023 score than 2022 and 2023 combined. Checking the data for other players showed that the two-year samples were not an accurate guess for the next season, and the two-year window mistake was discovered. 

Horse Handicapping, Weather Forecasting, and Fantasy Football

Last season, the Professor and I did a beta test combining six different metrics to get a consensus opinion on players. This concept is used widely in both weather forecasting and horse handicapping. In weather forecasting, you can occasionally appear to have all the ingredients for a severe weather outbreak, but nothing happens. This process is usually easy to forecast using multiple metrics, and if one key is missing, your confidence in the big storm is lowered. In horse race handicapping, you attempt to sift through data on speed, class, jockey ability, trainer ability, recent form, and many other inputs. If you utilize only one metric, your ability to pick the winner is lower. Combining different metrics in any forecasting situation can improve your understanding of the likely outcomes. It’s crucial, though, that those metrics be distinct enough to bring value to the combination. 

Roster Build for the Win

Every Fantasy Football expert will give you their cheat sheet list of players ranked first through fiftieth, and some might even tell you when that player is the correct value to pick during the draft. But, like any good recipe, you must know how and when to add those ingredients to make the best cake. There is so little theory on the correct roster build and too much information on rigid theories. Try to apply a popular strategy such as “Zero RB” in a league with 11 other Zero RB-ers, and you will learn how bad that strategy can be. Too many Fantasy Football strategies only work if your opponent does something opposite. That’s how my “Better Than Zero” philosophy was born. The proper roster build will improve your chances of winning in your league more than being perfect on your Top picks. 

Better Than Zero: The Basics

If your drafting strategy is not adaptive, you are in for potential issues during your Fantasy Football draft. As boxing champ Mike Tyson famously said, “Everyone has a plan until you get punched in the face.” “Better Than Zero” keeps you from being knocked out because you adapt to what your opponents are doing in the draft as it proceeds. Concentrate on getting the best player available in the early rounds without worrying about what position is taken. Later in the draft, we can make additions based on position need, but our goal is always to get more elite players, regardless of position. The most unique aspect of my “Better Than Zero” strategy is that I usually end up with several more RBs than WRs after the draft. In leagues that start 2 WRs I usually finish drafting wide receivers once I get to 4 or 5 of them. Most of my bench will be RBs, and I often have two parts of the uncertain backfields. 

Last season, I had both Rachad White and Bucky Irving on many teams. I didn’t know which RB would be the lead back by mid-season, and sometimes I played both, which worked out fine too. Sometimes, being honest that “We don’t know what we don’t know” before the season pays off. You can read more about the “Better Than Zero” theory at this link. I will also have a detailed, updated article later in the offseason. Science of Fantasy Football - Better Than Zero Strategy for 2024: Part One

Conclusion

During each NFL off-season, the goal is to get smarter so we can do even better in Fantasy Football next year. Return on Investment is the ultimate guide on how well you are doing in that goal. The percentage of teams you get into the Fake Football playoffs and how many Final Four teams you have are also significant measures of your skill in this game. This off-season, the Professor and I are very busy with research projects to make us and our readers more successful in 2025. Thanks for joining me on this philosophical journey in Fantasy Football.