Examining the Spike Week Hypothesis

Some of the best ideas for research in Fantasy Football come from discussions with other people in the business. Recently, during a discussion on Fantasy Football Twitter, a comment was made about my theory that you should handcuff your stud. The comment suggested that it would be impossible to prove that with numbers. 

This assertion got me thinking about how it MIGHT be able to be proved, and I felt that a look at “Spike Week” performances could lead to a definitive answer using statistics. This year, I will be examining how Spike Week performances affect wins and losses in Fantasy Football. But before this research can be meaningful, I needed to see what the landscape of “Spike Weeks” looks like on the player and team level and whether this can be predicted with any degree of accuracy. Today, we start examining my “Spike Week” hypothesis by looking at the past three seasons. 

Spike Week Defined

Past research by Professor John Bush has shown that the historic mean performance for RBs and WRs in typical PPR scoring is around 12 points per week. If you take a value 25% higher than the mean, scoring only around 20 RBs and around 25-30 WRs hit that number on any given week. That defines the top scorers in a Best Ball league well, and some of those RBs and WRs are not typically starters in most Redraft leagues. That’s how I settled on 15 PPR Points or higher to determine a “Spike Week,” and as always, I kept the number the same for the TE position to aid in Flex Starter decisions. Let’s look at the data from the last three seasons.

RB Spike Week Performance at Team Level 2022 to 2024

Looking at the team level, the number of total Spike Week performances varied from a low of 2 to a high of 23 and a median of 9 in 2024. In 2023, the total ranged from a low of 3 to a high of 13, with the median at 8.5. Back in 2022, the total varied from a low of 3 to a high of 13, with a median of 8. 

The Box and Whisker distributions seem steady over the three years, with each team getting you two spikes or up to 23 in DET. 

It is very clear that over the past three years, we have only one data point that is a massive outlier. Last season, DET’s RB Room posted eight more Spike Week performances than any other team and 10 more than the top-performing team in both 2023 and 2022. 

Looking at the data on the player level among the Top 40 RBs, we have a range from 2 to 13 and a median of 5 in 2024. The data from 2023 is identical to the 2022 season, showing a range of 1 to 13 and a median of 4. The Top 8 varied from 10 to 13 in 2024, from 9 to 13 in 202,3, and from 8 to 13 in 2022. 

In our small sample size of three seasons, there is an excellent agreement on the data, with only one outlier at the team level, with the DET RB Room last season.

WR Spike Week Performance at Team Level 2022 to 2024

Looking at the team level, the number of total Spike Week performances varied from a low of 4 to a high of 22 and a median of 12 in 2024. In 2023, the total ranged from a low of 3 to a high of 21, with the median at 12. Back in 2022, the total varied from a low of 2 to a high of 23, with a median of 11.5.

Box and Whisker analysis seems to highlight a yearly variation the box range and distribution. 

Looking at the data on the player level among the Top 40 WRs, we have a range from 4 to 13 and a median of 7 in 2024. The data from 2023 shows a range of 4 to 13 with a median of 6. Back in 2022, we had a range of 3 to 12 with a median of 5.5. 

In our small sample size of three seasons, that is an excellent agreement on the median data but a clear level os box range variation which could be a reminder of using key WRs in your succcess.

TE Spike Week Performance at Team Level 2022 to 2024

Looking at the team level, the number of total Spike Week performances varied from a low of 0 to a high of 9 and a median of 3 in 2024. In 2023, the total ranged from a low of 0 to a high of 7, with the median at 2. Back in 2022, the total varied from a low of 0 to a high of 12 with a median of 2. 

Interesting Box Range distributions in 2022 vs the next two. Hints at a variation that may not be predictable with Teams. 

Looking at the data on the player level among the Top 20 TEs, we have a range from 2 to 9 and a median of 3 in 2024. The data from 2023 shows a range of 1 to 7 with a median of 4. Back in 2022, we had a range of 1 to 12 with a median of 2.5.  

In our small sample size of three seasons, that is an excellent agreement on the data, with the outlier being Travis Kelce’s 2022 season. 

Conclusion

While this data study only covers 3 seasons, the agreement at all three positions was solid. We only had two outliers with the DET RB Room last season and Travis Kelce’s incredible season of 2022. There is solid agreement on team levels of Spike Weeks that can be expected from one season to the next, which makes it possible to forecast the future with some level of skill. 

One instant conclusion is that we should expect some regression back towards the median for the DET RB Room. Whether that means a drop for Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, or both is uncertain. This season, in addition to the forecast of my MVP Index, I will attempt a forecast of Spike Weeks at the player level based on past performances and team expectations for 2025. I will also study at a team level how many Spike Weeks it takes to win a typical Fantasy Football matchup.