Science of Fantasy Football Lab
There is an excellent line in the movie MONEYBALL where Billy Beane tells his fellow baseball experts with the Oakland A’s that they must adapt or die. That quote is the whole basis of the best strategies to draft your Fantasy Football team. Suppose you tie yourself to a strict strategy based on one position; you are doomed to failure if too many teams adopt that same strategy. Zero RB worked before it got popular because it went against the grain. Hero RB works great unless too many managers adopt that strategy.
My “Better Than Zero” strategy is straightforward: draft the best player available, regardless of position. If I end up with four great RBS in the first four rounds, I will figure the other positions out as I go. The only reason I would have ended up with four straight RBs would be because the other team managers were letting the best RBs drop in the draft. Each year, the preferred position at the top of the draft might change. Today, I take you along for an actual draft over on FPPC to teach you the art of the Better Than Zero draft strategy for 2025.
Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. Median performance levels for each position using the MVP Index have been established based on the past five seasons.
QB Top 3: 130 Top 6: 105 Top 9: 85 Top 12: 75 Top 15: 60
RB Top 3: 125 Top 6: 115 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 70 Top 30: 55
WR Top 3: 130 Top 6: 120 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 75 Top 30: 60
TE Top 3: 80 Top 6: 55 Top 9: 45 Top 12: 30
The competition is fierce over at FFPC, and I enjoy playing against outstanding players. This draft is a 1QB league that also features 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2 Flex, 1 DEF, 1 K, and 10 Bench spots. The MVP Index calculations show us that Team Defense and Kicker have a much lower separation than starters at other positions, so I don’t draft those positions until the end of the draft. Scoring is the standard full-point PPR format common on most platforms, with a TE premium bonus of 1/2 point added. The standard 10 rushing or receiving yards per point and 25 passing yards per point are used. Rushing or receiving TDs are 6 points, but passing TDs are only 4 points. One point is lost for every lost fumble or interception. Waivers run twice a week, but you must make a bid of at least $1 to acquire a player out of your $1000 FAAB bankroll. There are 18 skill position player slots, and at least one defense and kicker need to be rostered to have a legal lineup.
The goal of the Better Than Zero strategy is to maximize the number of elite players on our team. During the bulk of the draft season, Professor John Bush and I will compile our six fantasy football metrics and utilize that comprehensive data set to mitigate risk early in the draft.
Today, I will only be using my MVP Index. Roster build is a key part of the Better Than Zero strategy. When I play with the 10-player bench at FPPC, I prefer to build a team with 2QB and 2TE. If I can secure four WRs with different bye weeks, I might not add a fifth WR, and it’s very rare to add a sixth. This process allows me to carry more RBs than most teams, which quite often helps me at playoff time. There are no “Set in Stone” rules when it comes to the Better Than Zero strategy; the key to its success is being able to adapt to whatever happens during the draft.
Each year, before I start my first draft, I make a worksheet of “Safe Players” in Fantasy Football by position. This term is a subjective concept of safety, but it helps frame position scarcity for the upcoming fake football draft season. Rookies and players coming off a serious injury are not included on the safe list. Players whose forecasted MVP Index value is less than a starting level are also dropped off the safe list.
Safe players are expected to exceed 75/80 MVP Index preformance.
This year, there are 21 QBs whose expected MVP is over 75 who also have no competition for their starting position. There are only 11 RBs, 30 WRs, and 10 TEs that I have on the “Safe List” heading into the 2025 season. The low number of non-rookie RBs without competition for a starting role indicates two things. First, we would like to draft at least 2 of those safe RBs. Second, we will strive to grab the backup for several of the RBs we draft.
I have seen many Fantasy Football analysts saying they want to own handcuffs to their opponents' running backs. While I understand the logic of weakening your opponent, I prefer to maximize the value of my team by making sure I have two viable starters at the RB position all season. If you own the handcuff to your opponent's running back, it takes two injuries to make that player viable in your lineup, versus one injury for your starting running back.
One unique aspect of the Better Than Zero strategy is that the team build is done by first anticipating which round the QB and TE we are targeting might be drafted. I prepare a wish list for each position of the five or more players I find acceptable to be my starter at QB and TE. This pick off my wish list won’t necessarily be the highest-rated player, but it will be the best value compared to their expected ADP. Brock Bowers, for instance, is being drafted in the middle of the first round in FPPC drafts because of the TE premium scoring. While Bowers is my top-rated TE, I think some elite RBs and WRs might be more valuable this season, who are still on the draft board when he is being selected.
That doesn’t mean I won’t choose Bowers if he falls to the end of the first round or the early second round, depending on which RBs and WRs are still available, but I don’t expect to build my team around Bowers this year. Here are the QBs I am targeting, along with the expected ADP at which I would need to pick them.
Joe Burrow: Late 4th
Jalen Hurts: Early 5th
Patrick Mahomes: Mid 6th
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Bo Nix: 9th round
Justin Fields: 10th round
Caleb Williams: 10th round
Drake Maye: 11th round
Dak Prescott: 12th round
Jared Goff: 12th round
Brock Purdy 12th round
Justin Herbert: 12th round
Jordan Love: 13th round
Trevor Lawrence: 13th round
I plan to draft two of the QBs off this list, but I would also take Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, or Lamar Jackson IF they drop in the draft from their expected top 3 draft positions at QB according to ADP. Joe Burrow will be my number one QB to target despite offering very little in rushing upside. The 4th round is as early as I would go shopping for a QB this year. Another general rule at QB is that the earlier I draft my first QB, the longer I will wait for my second choice.
Let’s look at the TE position.
Trey McBride: Late 1st
George Kittle: Mid 3rd
Sam LaPorta: Late 4th
TJ Hockenson: Late 5th
Travis Kelce: Mid 6th
Mark Andrews: 7th round
Coleston Loveland: 8th round
Brenton Strange: 11th round
Zach Ertz: 12th round
Once again, my “goal” is to pick 2 TEs in the draft with one of the post-8th-round guys as my second choice. There is a sacrifice made when you choose an elite TE, but the payoff can also be considerable. Last season, the difference between TE1 and TE5 in weekly value was greater than the difference between TE5 and TE22. Since these FPPC leagues are TE premium, it can often pay off during Bye weeks to play a second TE, depending on injuries.
Horse Racing Concept - Horse has back-class… meaning they’ve won or performed well in bigger/better races in the past. You’ll get a much clearer picture of a horse’s ability if you go BACK and look at the entire body of their work ( #TheAction: Back Class | America's Best Racing ).
Thus, we use this term and consider a player’s entire body of activity in Fantasy Football analysis. These back-class players have shown better performances in previous teams or years. We suspect they could ascend as well, given a new opportunity, and may have a higher chance of success than expected compared to a player with no history of success in this spot.
Too many Fantasy Football players are worried about missing out on a player. In the early rounds, the best strategy is to minimize your risk. Even if I pass on a great RB with question marks in round one, I am still getting a great player by using this method. But as the draft proceeds, your strategy needs to evolve. By the time we pick 100, all we care about is upside potential.
Avoid drafting ordinary WRs because they will be available via waivers when you need them. Bulk up on RBs and especially target your own studs’ backups to ensure you will have at least two starters every week. Now let’s look at the safest picks in the early rounds and the best upside picks later, keeping in mind that we should be able to identify a plus and a minus on every player. Just because I leave a player off the list, it doesn’t mean I think that player will be bad. It simply means I believe there are better choices. If an early-round player drops six or more draft positions, we need to reexamine that player’s value.
Current FPPC ADP is being used for this article; your league’s ADP may differ.
Also, all lists presented are in the order of my current preference.
Ja’Marr Chase: His only bad stretches have come when Joe Burrow has been hurt, but that is his only concern heading into this season.
Bijan Robinson: Last year, his MVP Index was over 150, and he didn’t have a single game under 10 PPR points all season, but he did carry a large load last season, and lower volume is possible
Jamyr Gibbs: Last year, his MVP Index was over 140, but his best weeks did come when David Montgomery missed time.
Justin Jefferson: Has topped 120 in the MVP Index each of the last 3 seasons and has been a solid producer regardless of who is at QB.
Malik Nabers: Posted an MVP index over 125 as a rookie on an awful offense with a revolving QB position, and the Giants should be somewhat better this year.
Cee Dee Lamb: Posted an MVP Index of over 140 the last time Dak Prescott played a full season, but drops off to the 100 to 120 range with a replacement-level QB.
Puka Nacua: The Rams added Davante Adams, so it’s possible the fight for targets is tougher some weeks, but Nacua has fought off a healthy Kupp for target share in the past.
Trey McBride: While I expect Marvin Harrison Jr to be more of a challenge to his target share this season, he posted an MVP Index over 100 last year.
Amon Ra St Brown: The Sun God is one of only two WRs to post an MVP Index over 120 in three straight seasons and should be considered as early as pick seven this year, but a gift in the 13-18 range.
De’Von Achane: Yes, he had a significant drop off at times when Tua missed games, but his MVP Index for the entire season last year was over 130.
Derrick Henry: He was one of my value picks last season as early as pick 11 in drafts, and there is no reason to think Father Time will catch up with him yet.
Nico Collins: Posted an MVP Index of 108 in a down year for CJ Stroud and could climb above 120 this season if that offense is better.
AJ Brown: Last year, even with an Eagles defense that was incredible, we saw him post an MVP Index of over 130, and he has been over 100 in the last three seasons.
Josh Jacobs: Last year, he posted an MVP Index over 140, which was RB3 for the year, and you can still get him mid to late second round this year.
Jonathan Taylor: Yes, there is always an injury concern with JT, but he has been a beast in the Fantasy Football playoffs two years in a row.
Bucky Irving: Took over more of the volume as last year went along, but Rachaad White did have a nagging injury. But Bucky’s MVP Index of 100 was impressive; draft them both.
Chase Brown: He was one of my most rostered RBs last year because his value was incredible; after posting an MVP Index of 128, he is a great 3rd-round steal.
Breece Hall: There is an RBBC concern with the Jets, but that’s backed into the price for an RB who has posted an MVP Index over 112 twice in the last three years.
Rashee Rice: We can put the suspension and health concerns aside, and his MVP Index was over 130 in limited action last year.
George Kittle: Went wild with an MVP Index over 120 when everyone else got hurt last year, but is still a solid TE off the board even if CMC stays healthy.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Emerged as the best WR on the roster last year with an MVP Index of 88 and should continue to improve.
Kyren Williams: Once again, there is the concern of a rookie RB being added to the mix, but he posted an MVP Index of 118 after 141 the year before.
Alvin Kamara: Yes, the Saints offense could be well below average, but they weren’t great last season, and Kamara posted an MVP Index of 121.
Kenneth Walker: Sure, we could see a split of touches with Charbonnet, but you can add him to your team around pick 95, and KW3 has posted an MVP Index over 100 twice in the last 3 years.
James Cook: I am often allergic to guys who are threatening to hold out, but Cook will be playing somewhere and posted a solid MVP Index of 93 last year.
DJ Moore: The Bears added another solid rookie WR this year, but DJ should still be the top WR on the team with a much-improved offense after an MVP Index of 100 last year.
Jayden Daniels: After seeing previous all-world rookie QB CJ Stroud have a sophomore slump, some expect that from Daniels, but his rushing ability provides a solid floor.
RJ Harvey: The Broncos added a veteran RB recently, but they invested too much in this rookie not to use him early and often.
Joe Burrow: This is the QB I will be targeting in redraft this season because the Bengals defense might be awful again, and Burrow’s MVP Index has averaged over 130 when healthy.
Joe Mixon: Injury is always a concern with Mixon, but his MVP Index has topped 100 each of the last 3 years when healthy.
Jalen Hurts: Another QB I will target because even last year, when the Eagles' Defense was excellent, his MVP Index was 107 and was over 125 the previous two seasons.
Tetairoa McMillan: WR24 right now, around pick 51 overall, he is being drafted at what should be his floor if Bryce Young plays back to last season's level, with top 10 potential if Young improves.
Sam LaPorta: People are shying away from Lions because of the change in Offensive Coordinator, but the second half of last year showed us the upside of LaPorta in Fake Football.
Treyvon Henderson: Trading away your top RB and then investing in a rookie RB early in the draft usually means that rookie is going to get a heavy volume.
James Conner: Continues to be insulted by Fantasy Football Managers who let him fall too far in the draft every year, has an MVP Index over 100 the last 3 seasons.
Aaron Jones: Another RB who hasn’t done anything to earn a fade except get older, but keeps producing, draft Conner/Benson and Jones/Mason, and be safe.
Chris Olave: When you get injured with concussions as often as Olave and play on such a below-average offense, it’s clear why you are being faded, but upside is Top 10.
Jaylen Waddle: Last season was a disappointing year if you drafted Waddle, but don’t let last year sour you on a very dynamic player with Top 15 upside, even with Tyreek playing.
D’Andre Swift: No, he won’t be as productive as Gibbs, but the Bears offense got a massive upgrade with players and coaches, and Swift has Top 12 upside.
Travis Kelce: If I can get a TE with TE3 upside after pick 60, you can sign me up any time because that’s a cheap price for the second tier of TEs.
TJ Hockenson: Last year was a throwaway year for “The Hock,” but expect a return to his former production (back-class) in the Top 5 range.
Kaleb Johnson: The Fantasy Football noise says that Jaylen Warren is going to beat out the rookie for the lead RB duties, but I don’t buy it.
Evan Engram: Are you daring and willing to lose a player to an injury? Engram’s upside is worth the gamble at this point in the draft, where everything should be upside-based.
Chris Godwin: When he was healthy last year, his MVP Index was over 140, and only Chase finished above 140 last year at WR.
Isiah Pacheco: Last year was a throwaway year for a talented RB on one of the better offenses in the league, and he has back class in the Top 12 range.
Mark Andrews: How can the Fantasy Football world be so down on a guy who has been so consistently good at TE when he is healthy?
Patrick Mahomes: Last year, I thought Mahomes was a lousy value, but he is being drafted later, has a better supporting cast on offense, and maybe a weaker defense.
Brian Robinson: The fact that they didn’t add a more impressive rookie in the draft or via free agency means I will count on B-Rob’s back-class of Top 18 as a possible result.
Tony Pollard: What if Pollard’s slip in weekly value over the last 2 years was a lack of health and a bad offense?
Jakobi Meyers: His MVP Index of 86 translates to WR18 in weekly upside consistency, and the Raiders will have better QB play this year.
Jordan Mason: Worth handcuffing if you drafted Aaron Jones earlier, and as a standalone, he has the kind of upside I like at this point in the draft.
Rome Odunze: This is a dangerous “What If” style pick shooting at upside potential on a better Bears offense, but only as your 4th WR, not 2nd or 3rd
Stefon Diggs: Let’s hope that pink stuff in the video was lemonade crystals, and let’s hope the new and improved Patriots offense is indeed improved.
Jayden Reed: In Dynasty Fantasy Football, I made quite a few bets on Matthew Golden having the best shot at lead WR duties with the Packers, but Reed’s back class is WR21 as a rookie.
Matthew Golden: A common draft strategy for me this year will be to select Reed and Golden in back-to-back picks to secure the WR1 for the Packers with my 4th and 5th WR choices.
Zach Charbonnet: A must pick at this point in the draft if you selected KW3 earlier, and a solid standalone pick at this price too, after an MVP Index of 90, which is RB18 level.
Travis Etienne: I was heavily invested in Bhashul Tuten in Dynasty leagues, but his price in redraft moving ahead of ETN is too pricey, and ETN has a back-class of RB10.
Michael Pittman: When a player is so tough that he plays through an injury to help his team, his Fantasy Football stats get diminished, but he has a back-class of WR14.
Trey Benson: Did you make that James Conner selection with confidence again this year? Great, then back that choice up with Benson and guarantee one starting RB every week.
Bo Nix: Another one of the young QBs that I am targeting this season, and remember, since my strategy drafts two QBs, this is the perfect place to get number two.
Brandon Aiyuk: Too many people fixate on total points, think of the Fantasy Football season as four quarters of 4 games each, and Aiyuk can win that last quarter for you.
Emeka Egbuka: This wasn’t the best landing position for instant Fantasy Football success, but I like rookie WRs that could close the season strong as my 4th or 5th WR.
Tyjae Spears: If I roll the dice on Tony Pollard, I will probably double up on Titans’ RBs this year and hope that Cam Ward has a solid season.
Isaac Guerrendo: We saw some impressive results from him, albeit in a super small sample size, but if Father Time catches up with CMC, then Guerrendo might be super valuable in this spot.
Ray Davis: Just in case something happens to the starter, I always want the clear next man up on an excellent offense, and Cook’s holdout potential makes Davis a nice selection.
Rachad White: If I redraft Bucky this season, then I will probably redraft White, although their ADPs are reversed this year.
Caleb Williams: I am still a believer in the upside potential of last year’s first overall pick, now that he has a real coach in charge, and he would be my second QB rostered on the team.
Dak Prescott: Maybe I have a bit of a sadistic tendency when it comes to Fantasy Football, but the back class for Dak was QB7 in 2023.
Drake Maye: Last year, at times, he looked good, and now he gets a new coach and more solid pieces to work with on the offensive side of the ball.
Brenton Strange: Takes over as the heir apparent at TE for the Jags, and if he can be 70% as good as the aging Evan Engram, that’s solid value at TE here.
Luther Burden: This rookie pick is a total upside play as my 4th or 5th WR with hopes that he can be the coach’s new Amon Ra imitator in the final six games of the season.
Roschon Johnson: The Bears failed to add a significant free agent or rookie to their RB Room, which means Swift and Johnson are both great investments.
Braelon Allen: Another must handcuff pick if you took Breece Hall, and might even be worth an upside value selection here if you didn’t get hit by Breece Lightning.
Zach Ertz: Proved last year that Father Time isn’t catching up to him yet (back-class) and provides some nice spike week upside as your second TE on a Fantasy Football roster.
Jared Goff: Last season, Goff only had to play three games outside, and this year on paper, he gets a much more challenging schedule, but I still like his home game splits as my second QB.
Jordan Love: I’m not sure what Love did wrong to get people so down on him, except get injured, but his weekly value back class is QB7-9, perfect for a QB tandem in 1QB fake football.
Justin Herbert: If you had not caught on yet, this part of the draft is going to be an excellent place to draft that second QB, and with 9 two two-plus TD games last year, Herbert is a great choice.
JK Dobbins: You bet if I rolled the dice on the rookie Harvey in the 4th round, I am backing him up with the free agent signing at this point of the draft.
MarShawn Lloyd: Hurt all of 2024, Lloyd should be back healthy and the clear handcuff to Josh Jacobs, who saw a heavy volume last year.
Cedrick Tillman: Never draft ordinary for your last WR, grab a guy with upside potential, and it appears the Browns could be playing from behind a lot this year.
Woody Marks: If you drafted Joe Mixon, then you need to leave this section of the draft with the rookie Marks, who is the clear backup for a solid offense.
Trevor Lawrence: This is another excellent guy to roster as your backup QB in all formats of Fantasy Football, and I hope to catch the upside potential.
Brashard Smith: The Chiefs love to have a dynamic and fast RB coming out of the backfield on routes, and Smith is the closest they have had to a Jett McKinnon clone in a while.
Marvin Mims: The good news is that Mims had an MVP Index of 100 for WR12 level in the full games he played, but the bad news is that he barely got enough snaps to count.
Tahj Brooks: It’s nice in Fantasy Football when you get a clear-cut backup to one of your favorite value selections at RB. If you roster Chase Brown, then add Brooks here.
DJ Giddons: What did I just say above? It’s not clear-cut that Giddons is the backup to Jonathan Taylor, but he only needs to beat Khalil Herbert.
Nick Chubb: It took a long time for him to find a team, but he landed in a good spot behind Joe Mixon, who has usually missed a few games.
Devin Neal: Kendre Miller appears to be the backup to Alvin Kamara, but if Kamara goes down for an extended period, I think this rookie might get a shot.
Adam Thielen: Yes, the Panthers drafted a rookie and have some interesting second-year guys at WR, but the old veteran has one more productive season in the Flex in Fantasy Football.
Jacory Croskey Merritt: This was an interesting, albeit very late in the rookie draft landing spot for JCM, but I like his chances if anything happened to B-Rob.
Quentin Johnson: There has been quite a buzz over the rookie Tre Harris, but at times last season, QJ looked like he was starting to figure out the NFL.
Xavier Legette: Your last WR pick for your roster needs to be somebody with upside potential, and he could be better this season.
Keenan Allen: Worth taking a shot at this veteran this late in the draft at this time of the year, even though he hasn’t signed with a team yet.
Terrance Ferguson: Rookie TEs are usually not on my radar unless they were a first-round draft pick, but the Rams like to use their TE, and he could win the starting role late in the season.
Tua Tagovailoa: When a QB has a back class of QB7 level of weekly production as Tua, it’s hard to believe they would last this long in the draft, but here we are.
Michael Penix: Seemed to gel with Drake London at the end of the year, and now the starting role is his to lose.
Matthew Stafford: Had Top 12 back class when the offense was running well in 2023 and has an even higher back class in the distant future, making him an outstanding second QB to roster.
Bryce Young: His best games last year showed some potential with a Best 10 Game MVP Index of 70, which is QB14 level.
Roman Wilson: The trade of Pickens and the health of Pickens have the WR position in Pittsburgh wide open for the taking, and this redshirt rookie has a shot to be as good as Pickens.
Miles Sanders: I hear you laughing at this selection, but the Cowboys starting RB slot is wide open, and this is the only contender with a back class in the Top 15 in weekly value.
Ollie Gordon: If anything happens to De’Von Achane, the RB position will be wide open for the taking, and this rookie brings some different skills to the job, too.
Trevor Etienne: Chuba Hubbard has looked solid over the last season and a half for the Panthers, but the next man up could be the rookie.
Cam Ward: If the rookie is good at football, his rushing upside could give him solid second QB potential on your team this season in Fantasy Football.
Jordan James: If anything happened to CMC and Guerrendo, the rookie could end up emerging late in the season on a solid offense.
Elijah Mitchell: The Chiefs added some veteran help at RB because they were worried about the health of Pacheco.
Keaton Mitchell: If anything happened to King Henry, someone needs to take over the lead RB role on an excellent offense, and he could be the next man up.
Kyle Monangai: He was the only RB added to the Bears roster by the new coaching regime, so maybe he has an outside shot at relevance sometime this year.
Jalen Royals: There are a lot of bodies ahead of him in the pecking order, but the Chiefs love speed, and he has plenty to add to the offense.
AJ Dillon: I hear you laughing again, and this is only a guy who might have value if something were to happen to Saquon, but Dillon has back-class, albeit way back.
First, it's very early in the Fantasy Football draft season, and opinions will evolve as we move through the Summer and closer to week one. Second, we must work hard to avoid the persistence bias of sticking with a dire forecast about a player just because we don’t want to admit we might be wrong. (More on how this concept applies in all kinds of forecasting in another article soon)
This player roadmap is also not to be taken as an “only the guys” I would select list, because in Fantasy Football drafts, every player has a point in the draft where they become a value. I limited myself to the best 67% in the early segments and then 60% for the rest of the draft segments. I didn’t include Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey on the list in their respective segment of the draft because I feel there are safer picks to make. However, when my choice comes along, if Saquon is still available to pick at five or CMC at seven, I will have to consider them versus the other options still on the board. Likewise, if a player slips six or more positions from their ADP, it’s time to act like your GPS mapping program and start recalculating.
The basic premise of “Better Than Zero” is to get an elite QB and TE at a solid value, only draft 3-5 WRs, and load up on RBS with an emphasis on backing your choices up as often as possible. I believe in avoiding uncertainty in the early rounds and then focusing on upside late in the draft. These values given for ADP are for 1QB FPPC Redraft leagues, based on data from mid-June. Your league's site might vary considerably. Good luck if you dare to do an early draft this season.