The Art of Draft War Dynasty Rookie Drafts

BY Dennis Michelsen 

There are a million and one ways to win in Fantasy Football, but the battle can always be won more easily by daring to go against the consensus at the correct times in the draft. Exploiting the Fake Football noise to your advantage can be a key to winning in any format. “Amid chaos, there is also opportunity.” Sun Tzu would have been a great Fantasy Football player. 

So many Fantasy Football experts offer a can’t miss cheat sheet of players from 1 to 250 every year. However, I believe that many of the real advantages of this game come during the draft, such as knowing how to use that player data. If you give all 12 people in a league the same information, a few will use it more wisely than the others. Draft strategy is one of the least talked about but most important things in Fantasy Football. “To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the enemy himself provides the opportunity of defeating the enemy.” Today, I will start with some lessons on draft strategy for attacking a rookie draft in fantasy football. 

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. 

1) They can help your team win by having a huge points week. 

2) They can cause your team to lose by having a very low points week. 

3) They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected.

 Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. The index is calculated for individual seasons, and by comparing a player’s career, we can get a good idea of the best and worst to expect. We can even look at “Best Six” or “Best Ten” game breakdowns to see the potential upside in younger players. 

Decision Tree Concept

The standard Player A to Player Z cheat sheet doesn’t work. There isn’t a continuous step down in value from one player to the next, and it’s often difficult to tell when one position should be taken over another. Almost 30 years ago, The Football Guys introduced the concept of “Value-Based Drafting,” which considered the position scarcity of elite performers at each position. 

While this can be useful, being too stuck on one rating scheme is never a good idea in Fantasy Football. We use many decision trees to guide us through a forecast decision in weather forecasting. It allows us to have a game plan for analyzing all the variables that go into deciding a particular forecasting problem. This process ensures you have a consistent approach to minimize errors when emotions and deadlines come into play. This same approach works well in horse race handicapping by guiding us through the various inputs of speed, class, recent form, and other factors to narrow our decision. Each different Fantasy Football draft scenario lends well to a decision tree concept. Let’s examine how to attack a rookie draft in Dynasty Fantasy Football. 

Dynasty Rookie Draft Game Plan

The first rule in the Art of the Rookie Draft in Dynasty Fantasy Football is to understand your team's strengths and the teams' needs ahead of you in the draft order. If you can anticipate the moves of others in Fantasy Football drafts, you can gain an edge. Let’s look at how to evaluate a roster using a real team I drafted in Fantasy Football. This 12-team Superflex Dynasty league starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 2TE, 1SF, 3FLEX and has 13 bench spots with 3 Taxi Slots for rookies and 3 IR spots for injured players. Here is my roster and MVP Forecast 2025 for the top players at each position. 

QB- Burrow 125, Prescott 90, Goff 90, Flacco

RB- Swift 75, R White 70, T Benson 60, R Davis 70, J Wright, M Sanders, K Herbert, AJ Dillon

WR- ARSB 125, Aiyuk 95, Godwin 90, J Williams 80, A Mitchell, Ro Wilson, T Burks

TE- Hockenson 65, Kelce 60, All, Bell 

My quarterback depth and talent are a tremendous asset on this team. My RBs are plentiful, with many guys ranked first or second on their team’s depth chart, but I lack a solid RB1-type player. My WR room is four deep with solid talent and three guys with the potential to have a better season. My starting TEs are solid, but I lack any depth I can count on, which is needed in a league where you start two TEs. 

Now that I understand my strengths and weaknesses, I am ready for the rookie draft where I own picks 1.09. 2.04, 3.09, and 4.09. 

Dynasty Rookie First Round Strategy Decision Tree

The priority in the first round of a Dynasty rookie draft is to add the best player available. It doesn’t matter which position is said because I can compensate for any weakness with trades and free agent moves. The top tier at each position identifies the first sort of player. 

QB- Cam Ward: Tier of one at QB this season was taken with the first pick in the draft and automatically is the odds-on favorite to start for the Titans in week one. 

RB- Ashton Jeanty is also in a tier of one at RB this season and was taken with the sixth pick in the draft, and instantly takes over as the lead RB with high volume expectations in week one. 

WR- Tetairoa McMillan is also in a tier of one at WR this season and was taken with the 8th pick in the draft, and instantly becomes QB Bryce Young’s favorite target in week one. 

TE: Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren share the top tier at TE, and both players are likely to be the starting TE for their respective teams in week one. 

Next, it’s time to break the players into the second tier at each position. 

QB—Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe share the second tier at the quarterback position, but neither player is likely to start the season as the starter on his team. 

RB- The second tier of RBs is hard to break up into smaller pieces this year and is five players deep. Omarion Hampton, Quinshon Judkins, Treyvon Henderson, RJ Harvey, and Kalen Johnson are all talented players with a solid chance to start in week one. 

WR—Matthew Golden and Travis Hunter share the second tier at the WR position. Each player has strengths and weaknesses, but their talent and landing positions placed them in this tier. 

TE- Harold Fannin Jr and Mason Taylor share the second tier at the TE position but are well below the top tier and will not be premium picks in this year’s Dynasty rookie drafts, even in a 2TE league. 

At this point in the draft, we don’t worry much about choosing between positions; we want to understand which player should be the first off the board at each position. Let the draft begin. 

First-round picks: A. Jeanty, O. Hampton, T McMillan, T Warren, T Henderson, C Loveland, Q Judkins, and T Hunter are the first picks off the board, and we are up to pick eight, which is our selection. 

As expected, all the top-tier players have been chosen except Cam Ward, along with most of the second-tier players at RB and one second-tier WR. The remaining players are Kaleb Johnson, RJ Harvey, and Matthew Golden. 

Decision Tree Branch. 

WHICH REMAINING PLAYER IS THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE? 

Cam Ward will likely be the starter for the Titans in week one. Kaleb Johnon will likely be the starting RB for a run-heavy Steelers team with Jaylen Warren as the main competition. RJ Harvey is expected to be the Broncos' starting RB, who also likes to run the ball, but has a little more competition for touches. Matthew Golden enters a crowded but inefficient WR room for the Packers. My range of outcome forecasts for all 4 is: 

Ward MVP Range 60 to 70, Johnson MVP Range 75 to 100

Harvey MVP range 60 to 100 Golden MVP range 60 to 110

Decision Tree Branch. 

IF MORE THAN TWO PLAYERS REMAIN, SORT BY BEST AT EACH POSITION

Johnson gets the slight advantage by the expected MVP range at RB. 

Decision Tree Branch. 

WHICH OF THE REMAINING PLAYERS GIVES YOU THE BEST ADVANTAGE? 

Cam Ward might just be an average quarterback, especially in year one. Johnson offers a slightly better floor but a lower ceiling than Golden. These two players are too close to call, which gets us to the next branch on the Decision Tree. 

Decision Tree Branch. 

WHICH POSITION IS OUR TEAM WEAKEST AT RIGHT NOW? 

My team is much weaker at RB than WR or QB, which makes Johnson the draft pick for the first round. If the remaining players were equal at this stage, the next branch of the Decision Tree would come into play. 

Decision Tree Branch. 

WHICH PLAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO BE ON THE BOARD WHEN OUR NEXT PICK COMES UP?

Applying ADP for rookies can be tricky because of the high variance, but in this case, even if we had been at strength at QB, WR, and RB, the player most likely to fall to our next pick in the second round is Matthew Golden. 

Dynasty Rookie Second Round Strategy Decision Tree

Our strategy in the second round of Dynasty rookie drafts differs significantly from the first. We are opening our draft with the Best Player Available, but as we move into the next round, we start looking more at need than just the best player available. Let’s see how the draft has gone in our example draft since our first-round pick of Kaleb Johnson. 

End of First Round- C Ward, RJ Harvey, J Dart

Second Round- E Egbuka, M Taylor, O Gordon 

Decision Tree Branch. 

ARE ANY PLAYERS WE CONSIDERED IN ROUND ONE STILL AVAILABLE IN ROUND TWO? 

Matthew Golden is the only player remaining, as we expected when we considered our round one pick, so he is the easy selection for us in round two. If he had been drafted before our pick, none of our first-round contenders were available.

 Decision Tree Branch. 

WHO ARE THE BEST PLAYERS AVAILABLE IN THE HIGHEST REMAINING TIER AT EACH POSITION? 

QB—Jalen Milroe is the last of the Second-Tier quarterbacks on board, but he is more of a development project with little or no impact for 2025 and an unknown value during his career. 

RB- All the Second-tier RBs are gone, so the third-tier Bhayshul Tuten and Trevor Etienne are the next two RBs on our potential draft board. Both have a shot at the RB1 role on their teams. 

WR- All the Second Tier WRs are gone, and one of the Third Tier WRs has been taken, which leaves Jack Bech, Tre Harris, and Jayden Higgins on the board, who all have a shot at the WR2 role on their teams. Bech can lead his team in targets this season at the WR position. 

TE- Harold Fannin Jr is the only TE left from the Second tier at the TE position, but is more of a development player for 2025. 

This sort of elimination would eliminate the remaining QB and TE since they are well below the remaining players in other positions left on the board. Even though this is a Superflex league, it’s too early to reach for a development-level QB with better talent left at RB and WR. 

RB- Bhayshul Tuten has a slightly higher floor and a slightly higher ceiling than Trevor Etienne and also has a somewhat more straightforward path to lead his team at the RB position this season, so Tuten is the choice as the best RB still available at this point in the draft. 

WR—Bech, Harris, and Higgins are very close in projected MVP Range this season. While all three will likely be their team’s WR2 this year, only Bech has a shot at leading his team in targets at the WR position, so he gets the slight edge. 

Decision Tree Branch. 

IF ONE OF THE REMAINING PLAYERS ISN’T THE BEST, WHICH POSITION IS OUR TEAM WEAKEST RIGHT NOW, HEADING INTO THE 2025 SEASON? 

In this example, both Tuten and Bech are identical in expected weekly value range, so our weak position gives Tuten the edge as the draft pick. 

Dynasty Rookie Third Round and Beyond Strategy Decision Tree

We continue the third round the same as the second round by doing another sort of the Best Available players at each position. When deciding, we also consider where we are weakest as a team to be one of the possible tiebreakers. But starting with round three, we add another branch to the Decision Tree by looking to see if any players are available to protect an asset already on our roster. It never hurts to have a backup to one of our existing players to ensure we have a viable backup at that position when injuries occur. Let’s get caught up with our sample draft example again. 

Remainder of Second Round Picks- J Higgins, S Sanders, L Burden, C Skattebo, H Fannin, D Sampson, T Harris, J Milroe

Third Round Picks- E Ayonamor, J Bech, D Neal, T Ferguson, T Shough, J Noel, E Arroyo, X Restrepo

Decision Tree Branch. 

Are any players we considered in the last round still available? 

In our example above, Tre Harris at WR and Bhayshul Tuten at RB made it to us in Round Three. Both players were very even in the previous sort, which gets us to the next branch in the Decision Tree. 

Decision Tree Branch. 

ARE ANY OF THE PLAYERS LEFT IN OUR SORT AT THIS POINT, THE BACKUP TO A PLAYER ALREADY ON OUR ROSTER? 

In this example, neither player protects an existing roster spot on our veteran roster. One of the players left at this point in our player sort was RB Jayden Blue. Since we already roster another RB on the Cowboys roster, that would make Blue our selection in this round. But since he is not left in the data sort, we return to another branch on the Decision Tree. 

Decision Tree Branch. 

IF ONE OF THE REMAINING PLAYERS ISN’T THE BEST, WHICH POSITION IS OUR TEAM WEAKEST RIGHT NOW, HEADING INTO THE 2025 SEASON? 

Tuten and Harris have an MVP range of 30 to 90, so we default to our weakest position again, making Tuten our round three pick. This draft was only three rounds, so we are done at this point, but in longer drafts, we repeat the process each round, first sorting by projected tier at each position, then by MVP range, then by protecting an existing roster spot, and finally by need. 

Conclusion

Using a Decision Tree approach to drafting in Fantasy Football can be a helpful way to make sure you are considering the best possible choice in each round. The strategy decisions in Dynasty Fantasy Football rookie drafts are much different than a startup draft and require a solid knowledge of short-term and long-term potential for each player. My strategy revolves around maximizing year one performance, but that can vary based on the existing depth of talent on a Dynasty roster. 

The better the quality of the existing roster, the more I am willing to gamble on a rookie who might start in a challenging depth chart situation or is more of a developmental player. In Superflex leagues, if your team lacks two or more QBs over 90 in the MVP Index, you might need to grab a QB over another position to fix that glaring weakness first. But always sort the best player available by position at each step in the draft to ensure you maximize the talent over a positional need, since you can always trade to fix a deficiency.