Science of Fantasy Football Lab

Follow the Patterns in Fantasy Football Drafting

Follow the Pattern in Fantasy Football

by Dennis Michelson

This time of the year in Fantasy Football should be defined as the “Learning and Research” time of the season. If you have been keeping your “Fantasy Football Diary” over the past few years, you have a solid idea of your strengths and weaknesses in the game.

One of the best ways to improve in any “forecasting of the future” situation is to get better at pattern recognition. In horse race handicapping, the bias in the track is analyzed on any given day or meet in weather forecasting, picking up on which model is doing a better job with a particular weather pattern. Let’s see if we can spot patterns in Fantasy Football over the last 3 years that might give us an edge in 2025.

Before diving into the data, we need to define some terms you have seen above or will see throughout the article.

Fantasy Football Diary

This diary can be a small notebook or just an open document on your computer that tracks your moves during a Fantasy Football season. You can go into as much or as little detail as you wish to contribute to this task. The more information you have, the better decisions you should be able to make for the future. I record my basic approach from the draft. Was I RB-heavy early in the draft? Did I punt a particular position until later in the draft? How I handled my FAAB account and my waiver moves during the season are also important information to include. I also included some information on the strategy moves made by my competition.

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a vast points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low-points week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into one easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points differs for each position, using the same expected performance level for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. The index is calculated for individual seasons and a two-year window, which my research has shown to indicate better a player’s future potential for the next season. For this study, I will only show the individual years of data to see if any trends can be spotted. Only players with 10 or more full games will be used for this study.

QB Position Last 3 Seasons

The MVP Index shows us who might be the best fantasy football quarterback and how deep the position was in any given year. Breaking the players down by key levels provides us with a glimpse of the strength of the position over the past 3 seasons.

When you look at the data at QB from the last 3 seasons, it becomes very clear that 2023 was not like the other two seasons. There were twice as many MVP 100-plus QBs in 2024 and 2022 as in 2022. Last season, the worst starter in a 12-team league had an MVP of 73.3 versus 73.3 in 2023 and 75 in 2022. Your team had a nice advantage by drafting a QB with an MVP over 100 in the 3 seasons.

RB Position Last 3 Seasons

The MVP Index shows us who might be the best fantasy football running back and how deep the position was in any given year. Breaking the players down by key levels provides us with a glimpse of the strength of the position over the past 3 seasons.

Last season was an excellent year for RBs, with over twice as many hitting the MVP 120-plus level. There was also a 20% advantage at the MVP 100-plus level and the MVP 80-plus level. The depth of MVP 60 plus RBs was higher in 2024 and 2023 than in 2022. The worst RB1 starter in 12-team leagues was 109.1 in 2024 versus 100 in 2023 and 93.8 in 2022. The worst RB2 starter in 12-team leagues was 66.7 in 2024 versus 66.7 in 2023 and 58.8 in 2022. The reward for having two RBs at the MVP80 plus level was solid in the last 2 years, but an even more significant advantage back in 2022.

WR Position Last 3 Seasons

The MVP Index shows us who might be the best fantasy football wide receiver and how deep the position was in any given year. Breaking the players down by key levels gives us a glimpse of the strength of the position over the past 3 seasons.

Unlike at QB and RB, there doesn’t appear to be a significant difference at WR over the last 3 seasons at MPV 120, 100, or 80 plus. Last year, the worst WR1 starter in a 12-team league was 100 versus 94.1 in 2023 and 93.3 in 2022. Last year, the worst WR2 starter in a 12-team league was 75 versus 75 in 203 and 70.6 in 2022. Last year, the worst WR3 starter in a 12-team league was 53.3 versus 52.9 in 2023 and 43.8 in 2022. There was a slight advantage over the previous 2 seasons versus 2022 for WR24 and WR36, but the higher levels were close. The data shows the benefit of having a solid 3rd WR starter in leagues that start 3 WRs in all three seasons.

TE Position Last 3 Seasons

The MVP Index shows us who might be the best Fantasy Football TE and how deep the position was in any given year. Breaking the players down by key levels provides us with a glimpse of the strength of the position over the past 3 seasons.

The fantastic season by Travis Kelce in 2022 shows up in detail compared to the TE performances over the last 2 seasons. Not only did Kelce have one of the most impressive performances at TE, but the difference between him and the TE3, TE6, or TE12 levels was more significant than the difference between the best TE and the TE3, TE6, and TE12 levels in the last 2 seasons. The worst starter at TE in 12-team leagues was 23.1 in 2024 versus 28.6 in 2023 and 20 in 2022. This data shows why having an elite TE in Fantasy Football is such an advantage because there are so few in any given season. The number of elite TEs was more significant last season than in either 2023 or 2022.

Looking Back at ADP Versus Performance

Now that we have seen the pattern at each of the four key positions in Fantasy Football for the last 3 seasons, the key is understanding how to utilize that data to make solid predictions for the next season. I will not be looking at individual players but the overall pick for the top players at each position and their end-of-the-season performance. Data from Fantasy Pros was used for this study to capture a consensus across different Fantasy Football platforms.

Over the past 3 seasons in 1 QB league, the top QB was taken with picks 23, 14, and 22 over the past 3 seasons. That earliest pick at 14 in 2023 didn’t meet expectations where he was drafted. The QB3 was taken eight picks later than QB1 over the past 2 seasons and 13 picks later in 2022. Two of the three QBs chosen at QB3 failed to meet their expectations. The QB6 was selected 18-21 picks later than the QB3 and featured one over expectations, one right at expectations, and one below expectations. The QB12 was taken from pick 95-97 over the last three seasons, with only one living up to expectations.

Over the past 3 seasons at RB in 1QB PPR leagues, the top RB was chosen either 1st or 2nd in all three seasons, and in two years, he failed to come close to expectations. The RB3 was taken at pick 3 in 2022 but not until picks 7 and 6, respectively, over the past 2 seasons. That player failed to reach expectations in the last 2 seasons but overachieved back in 2022. The RB6 was taken at pick 8 in 2022 but not until pick 16 in 2023, and then moved up to pick 12 last season.

Last year, that pick overachieved but failed against expectations in 2023 and was close to expectations in 2022. The RB12 showed a similar oscillation from pick 21 in 2022 to pick 32 in 2023 and pick 24 last season. After overachieving the previous season, that player failed to meet expectations last year. The RB18 and RB24 have pushed farther back each of the previous 3 seasons, showing the effect of the “Late RB strategy” in gaining acceptance. Last year, both players lived up to expectations, but 3 of the four players taken at those slots in the previous two years failed to meet expectations.

Over the last 3 seasons, the WRs have been taken earlier than ever. The WR1 went from pick 4 in 2022 to pick 1 and 2 over the past two years. The top WR chosen each of the last 3 seasons has failed to meet expectations. The WR3 was taken at pick 9 in 2022 and was selected on pick 6 in 2023 and pick four last season. That player exceeded expectations in 2022 and 2023 and lived up to expectations last year.

Similarly, the WR6 has been taken earlier each of the last 3 seasons, from 16 in 2022 to 12 in 2023 and 9 last season. That player has exceeded expectations for the last 2 seasons after failing to meet expectations in 2022. The WR12 has been picked by pick 25 or 24 the last 2 seasons after waiting until pick 33 in 2022. That player has failed to reach expectations in the last 3 seasons. The WR18 and WR24 have also been picked earlier in each of the last 3 seasons, with the WR24 being selected a full round earlier last season versus 2022. Last season was the first time both players taken at WR18 and WR24 exceeded expectations.

Over the last 3 seasons, the ADP of the top TEs has varied significantly. The top TE was taken at pick 14 in 2022 and had a better season than many WRs. Fantasy Footballers overreacted in 2023, bringing that same player at pick 5, and didn’t live up to expectations, so the top TE wasn’t taken until pick 28 last season but again underperformed. The TE3 was taken quite early at pick 32 in 2022 but lasted until pick 45 in 2023 and pick 48 last year. In two of the previous 3 seasons, that player failed to live up to expectations.

Likewise, the TE6 has been taken later each of the last 3 seasons, drafted at pick 55 in 2022, 59 in 2023, and 62 last season. That player exceeded expectations last year after failing to meet expectations in 2022 and 2023. The TE12 ADP has been consistent with five picks between 117 and 122 each of the previous 3 seasons, and that player has met expectations for all three years.

This study is not meant to be the definitive study for ADP versus performance since it only used a snapshot at each position rather than comparing each pick; we can learn quite a bit from even basic studies like this one.

Looking Forward to 2025

The data shows how the prevalence of the “Late RB Draft Strategy” has changed the Fantasy Football player mentality when making choices over the last 3 seasons. The data shows a slight increase in MVP100 plus players at RB versus WR, yet there has been a shift of where the perceived 6th and 12th best players at RB and WR are taken. Even at the lower levels of performance, we see that more and more players in fantasy football are using late RB theory. It’s too early to know what ADP might look like this season, but the “Better Than Zero Strategy” of taking the best-rated player regardless of position early in the draft should succeed even more this season if the bulk of Fantasy Football players load up on WRs earlier in the draft.

This data makes it a more challenging read on what might happen at QB in 1QB leagues this season. We still want to strive for an elite MVP 100-plus player at the QB position, but we might be able to wait until QB6 again this season. Last year, the best strategy was to take two solid QBs instead of just one, and I will probably use that same strategy again this year. Having two solid quarterbacks and playing the best matchup situation might give us flexibility every week while letting us load up on premier running backs and wide receivers early in the draft.

The pool of very good TEs has grown to 3 last season, but it’s impossible to know whether that was a trend or a one-year fluke situation. Another challenging forecast is what Fantasy Football players will do with Travis Kelce in his final season. In the last three years, his MVP Index dropped from 129 to 80 and then to 62 last year. If I miss out on Trey McBride this season, I might wait for Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or TJ Hockenson, depending on their ADPs. The data presented today suggests that if you miss a top 4 TE this year, you are better off grabbing one of the upside guys mentioned or punting the position entirely.

Conclusion

In the fantasy football offseason this time of the year, we must be honest with ourselves, saying that we don’t even know what we don’t know yet. Free Agency is right around the corner. There might be a few trades, and the rookie draft will be here in late April. This offseason is a good time to learn as much as possible from what happened recently in fantasy football. While long-term trends in data are helpful, I prefer to narrow my sample to the last 3 seasons to see what patterns might emerge. Join us here at Science of Fantasy Football as we continue to dig deep into the data to give you an edge in 2025.

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