Player Versus Player: Joe Mixon Versus Alvin Kamara

by@DMICMEDIA

During every Fantasy Football draft, we are faced with making many decisions between players of equal value. Many factors go into the determination of which player to roster and which to leave for someone else. On that rare occasion, we get a two-for-one deal where the player we passed on is available with our next pick, but that is rare. Starting this week, we will look at two players being debated by Fantasy Football Twitter, and I will use the MVP Index and other analysis to find which player we should draft. Our first comparison is two veteran RBs that would both be welcome on my roster, Alvin Kamara and Joe Mixon. 

ADP information used will be based on the most recent data from FPPC and Fantasy Pros

MVP Index Explained

Every week in Fantasy Football, there are three possible outcomes for a player’s statistics. They can help your team win by having a huge points week. They can cause your team to lose by having a very low point total for the week. They can keep your team in contention by having a performance above the historical median of output expected. Combining these three outcomes into a single, easy-to-understand number was the goal of the MVP Index. While the historic median for Fantasy Football points is different for each position, using the same level of expected performance for RB, WR, and TE gives us a score to compare while making Flex starting decisions all season. Median performance levels for each position using the MVP Index have been established based on the past five seasons. 

QB Top 3: 130 Top 6: 105 Top 9: 85 Top 12: 75 Top 15: 60

RB Top 3: 125 Top 6: 115 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 70 Top 30: 55

WR Top 3: 130 Top 6: 120 Top 9: 110 Top 12: 100 Top 15: 90 Top 18: 85 Top 21: 80 Top 24: 75 Top 30: 60

TE Top 3: 80 Top 6: 55 Top 9: 45 Top 12: 30

Joe Mixon Analysis

Joe Mixon has been one of the more consistent players at running back, with full-season MVP Index values of 115, 106, and 100 over the past three seasons. The only knock against Mixon has been health, but he has only missed five games over the last 3 seasons. He is entering his age-29 season, which is a time of concern for Fantasy Football production for RBs. The Texans' offense fell to 22nd in total yards last year, and they have done a complete rebuild of their offensive line. Quarterback CJ Stroud had a tough season in 2024, but I expect him to be closer to his rookie performance this season if they figure out their offensive line. The Texans added veteran Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks to their RB Room and two exciting rookies to their WR Room, but will be missing Tank Dell all season. Overall, I would expect the Texans' offense to be better than last year, maybe Top 15, which should help Mixon’s chances at TDs. 

Alvin Kamara Analysis

Alvin Kamara had a down year back in 2022, but his last two seasons have been excellent with full-season MVP Index values of 121 and 125 after slipping to 67 in 2022. Kamara has missed nine games over the past 3 seasons combined and enters his age-30 season, which is a time for concern for Fantasy Football production for RBs. The Saints' offense finished 21st in total yards last year, despite a revolving door at QB and injuries to their top WRs. They enter this season without veteran Derek Carr at QB, who has retired, and will have a camp battle between second-year QB Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough. The Saints added rookie Devin Neal to their RB room, which also features Kendre Miller. Talented WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed return from injuries, which is a massive plus for this offense that remains a huge mystery. I would not expect the Saints to be significantly better than they were last season on offense. 

ADP Analysis

In mid-June, FPPC Redraft leagues, Alvin Kamara is being selected around pick 42 RB16, with Joe Mixon averaging pick 47 RB19. The Fantasy Pros consensus shows Joe Mixon at pick 56 RB18 and Alvin Kamara at pick 57 RB19. While in some leagues it may be possible to double up on these players, their ADPs are close enough to make this an excellent comparison for my player-versus-player article series.  

MVP Data Comparison

Joe Mixon’s MVP Index for 2024 was 115.4 with a Best 10 Games MVP of 140. Alvin Kamara posted a 121.4 with a Best 10 Games MVP of 140. Neither player is changing teams for the 2024 season. The Texans should see a slight improvement in their offensive production, while the Saints are a big mystery. Fantasy Football forecasting is about a range of logical outcomes for players that would account for 70-80% of their likely outcomes for the upcoming season. Here are the ranges expected for Mixon and Kamara. 

Alvin Kamara: Forecast MVP 100 with a range of 65 to 120

Joe Mixon: Forecast MVP 100 with a range of 80 to 125

Conclusion

Both players have a forecasted MVP Index of 100, which historically is good enough for RB12 production every week, making both excellent picks at their expected ADPs. They should both finish better than the level at which they are being selected. Joe Mixon has some injury concerns, but that can be alleviated using the handcuff concept in my “Better Than Zero” drafting strategy. The Saints are a mystery this season on both offense and defense, but Kamara’s pass-catching ability gives him a solid floor in weekly production. Joe Mixon is also an excellent pass catcher, having recorded back-to-back seasons with over 50 receptions before joining the Texans last year, where he caught 36 passes. Mixon has also found the end zone 10 or more times in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, while Kamara has been under 10 TDs since 2020. This choice is a very close decision between two veteran RBs and a great comparison to open this year’s player-versus-player article series. 

Decision: Joe Mixon gets the slight edge based on playing for what should be a better offense in 2025